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Poisson model favours SHANGHAI SIPG (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as SHANGHAI SIPG face Hangzhou Greentown.

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Analysis

Hangzhou Greentown make the trip to Pudong Football Stadium to face SHANGHAI SIPG in Super League, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Friday 15 May 2026 at 11:35 UTC.

Form

SHANGHAI SIPG (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

SHANGHAI SIPG's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Pudong Football Stadium this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Hangzhou Greentown's overall Super League record this term: 2W 7D 1L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D D D L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling in Super League this season, Hangzhou Greentown have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form favours the hosts. SHANGHAI SIPG's 2.20 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Hangzhou Greentown's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SHANGHAI SIPG have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Hangzhou Greentown in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — SHANGHAI SIPG lead 4W to 2W over the last 9 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2025, ended 3–0 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Stats

Hangzhou Greentown have played 30 games this season, recording 10W 12D 8L. Attacking returns: 2.0 goals per game; defensive: 1.7 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 3-0 (H) / 0-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 3-4 (H) / 3-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 4 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 5 games this season. 6 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 3 away). Scored 2+ goals in 10 of 30 games (33%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 0 missed from 2 awarded. Most used formation: 3-4-2-1. Discipline: 1.5 yellow cards per game, 0.13 reds per game.

Trading Data

SHANGHAI SIPG goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 60%.

Hangzhou Greentown goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 58%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SHANGHAI SIPG 70% and Hangzhou Greentown 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SHANGHAI SIPG 77% | Hangzhou Greentown 77%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 2.13 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.147 / defence 0.984 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.978 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 1.682 / away 1.214. Data: 41 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 41 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 59% | Draw 22% | Hangzhou Greentown 20%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 1.69 | Draw 4.55 | Hangzhou Greentown 5.00. The model has a clear lean to SHANGHAI SIPG (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.13 / 1.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is SHANGHAI SIPG at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.30 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SHANGHAI SIPG 80% | Hangzhou Greentown 60% BTTS from recent games.

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