Poisson model rates Chengdu Better City at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Tianjin Teda host Chengdu Better City at TEDA Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 15 May 2026 at 11:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Tianjin Teda have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Tianjin Teda have posted 6W 2D 2L at TEDA Football Stadium — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at TEDA Football Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Tianjin Teda are significantly better at TEDA Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Chengdu Better City — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Super League this season, Chengdu Better City have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Tianjin Teda) versus 1.70 (Chengdu Better City). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Tianjin Teda, 3 for Chengdu Better City and 3 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Jul 2025, ended 2–1 with Tianjin Teda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Season Statistics
Tianjin Teda's full-season record stands at 12W 8D 10L from 30 games. Attacking returns: 1.3 goals per game; defensive: 1.4 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 3-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-4 (H) / 3-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 7 games this season. 8 clean sheets this season (8 at home, 0 away). Scored 2+ goals in 2 of 30 games (7%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 0 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 5-4-1. Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards per game.
The visitors have accumulated 17W 9D 4L from their 30 Super League appearances this term. Their scoring output is 2.0 per match with 0.9 conceded on average. Biggest win: 5-0 (H) / 1-5 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-2 (H) / 3-2 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 5 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. They have failed to score in 1 game this season. 11 clean sheets this season (7 at home, 4 away). Scored 2+ goals in 8 of 30 games (27%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 0 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 5-4-1. Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards per game, 0.17 reds per game.
Chengdu Better City have been the more prolific side this season at 2.00 goals per game compared to 1.30 for the hosts. Chengdu Better City have kept their defensive record in better shape, conceding 0.90 per game versus 1.40 for the hosts. Chengdu Better City lead on clean sheets this season (11 vs 8). Chengdu Better City score 2+ goals far more often (27% vs 7%) — a meaningful difference for goal-line markets. Penalty activity: Tianjin Teda 4/4 vs Chengdu Better City 4/4 this season.
In-Play Profile
Tianjin Teda in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Chengdu Better City in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 57% versus Chengdu Better City 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 58% | Chengdu Better City 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.17 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.848 / defence 1.160 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.258 / defence 0.819. League average goals — home 1.682 / away 1.214. Chengdu Better City have an above-average attack strength of 1.258 — the away xG of 1.77 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 41 Tianjin Teda games / 41 Chengdu Better City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 24% | Draw 25% | Chengdu Better City 51%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 4.17 | Draw 4.00 | Chengdu Better City 1.96. Chengdu Better City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chengdu Better City at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chengdu Better City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Tianjin Teda 30% | Chengdu Better City 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: TEDA Football Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 15 May 2026, 11:35 UTC • Managers: Tianjin Teda (Yu Genwei) | Chengdu Better City (Seo Jung-Won) • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (8 meetings): Tianjin Teda 2W | Draws 3 | Chengdu Better City 3W • Goals trend: 2.88 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Tianjin Teda 11 – 12 Chengdu Better City • H2H markets: BTTS 88% | Over 2.5 75% | Win rates: Tianjin Teda 25% / Draw 38% / Chengdu Better City 38% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 24% / draw 25% / away 51% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 2.88 goals/game (75% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 2.94 (56% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 88%, Poisson BTTS probability 58% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
📈 Recent Form
• Tianjin Teda (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-L • Chengdu Better City (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-D • Tianjin Teda home split: 2.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | CS 6 • Chengdu Better City away split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 2.30 / GA 1.50 | CS 2 • Form edge: minimal separation (Tianjin Teda 1.40 PPG vs Chengdu Better City 1.70 PPG) • xG vs form (Tianjin Teda): Poisson xG of 1.17 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.40 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Chengdu Better City): Poisson projects 1.77 xG vs form scoring rate of 2.30 — model applies a discount on visitor output; home side's defensive record is the key factor • Goals margin: form ~2.4 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.94 (56% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~55% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 58% — no strong positional edge
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 24% | Draw 25% | Chengdu Better City 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.17 / Chengdu Better City 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.848 / def 1.160 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.258 / def 0.819 | league avg home 1.682 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (51%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Chengdu Better City xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City kicked off at 11:35 on Friday 15 May 2026 at TEDA Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City?
Tianjin Teda 1 - 2 Chengdu Better City.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City being played?
The match is being played at TEDA Football Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 24% chance of winning, Chengdu Better City a 51% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Chengdu Better City will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Chengdu Better City?
• Record (8 meetings): Tianjin Teda 2W | Draws 3 | Chengdu Better City 3W • Goals trend: 2.88 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Tianjin Teda 11 – 12 Chengdu Better City • H2H markets: BTTS 88% | Over 2.5 75% | Win rates: Tianjin Teda 25% / Draw 38% / Chengdu Better City 38% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 24% / draw 25% / away 51% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 2.88 goals/game (75% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 2.94 (56% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 88%, Poisson BTTS probability 58% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
What form are Tianjin Teda and Chengdu Better City in?
• Tianjin Teda (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-L • Chengdu Better City (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-D • Tianjin Teda home split: 2.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | CS 6 • Chengdu Better City away split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 2.30 / GA 1.50 | CS 2 • Form edge: minimal separation (Tianjin Teda 1.40 PPG vs Chengdu Better City 1.70 PPG) • xG vs form (Tianjin Teda): Poisson xG of 1.17 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.40 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Chengdu Better City): Poisson projects 1.77 xG vs form scoring rate of 2.30 — model applies a discount on visitor output; home side's defensive record is the key factor • Goals margin: form ~2.4 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.94 (56% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~55% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 58% — no strong positional edge
What do the betting odds say about Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture