Tianjin Teda 1-2 Chengdu Better City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chengdu Better City at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Tianjin Teda face Chengdu Better City.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Tianjin Teda host Chengdu Better City at TEDA Football Stadium in Super League (matchday 12). Kick-off is Friday 15 May 2026 at 12:35 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Tianjin Teda have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Tianjin Teda have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Tianjin Teda are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Chengdu Better City — last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Chengdu Better City have posted 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Tianjin Teda) versus 1.70 (Chengdu Better City). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 8 H2H matches, Tianjin Teda have won 2, Chengdu Better City 3, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 8 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 2.9 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 18 Jul 2025, ended Tianjin Teda 2–1 Chengdu Better City — a Tianjin Teda win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.9 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Tianjin Teda in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Chengdu Better City in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 57% versus Chengdu Better City 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 58% | Chengdu Better City 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Tianjin Teda surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Chengdu Better City have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.17 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.848 / defence 1.160 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.258 / defence 0.819. League average goals — home 1.682 / away 1.214. Chengdu Better City have an above-average attack rating of 1.258, which lifts their away xG to 1.77. Data: built from Tianjin Teda's last 41 games and Chengdu Better City's last 41.
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 24% | Draw 25% | Chengdu Better City 51%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 4.10 | Draw 4.03 | Chengdu Better City 1.97. Chengdu Better City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chengdu Better City at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chengdu Better City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Tianjin Teda's last 10 home games and Chengdu Better City's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Tianjin Teda 30% (last 10 home games) | Chengdu Better City 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City | Competition: Super League, matchday 12 | Venue: TEDA Football Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 15 May 2026 at 12:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 24% | Draw 25% | Chengdu Better City 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Tianjin Teda 1.17 / Chengdu Better City 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.848 / def 1.160 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.258 / def 0.819 | league avg home 1.682 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Chengdu Better City xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City FAQs
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City kicked off at 12:35 UK time on Friday 15 May 2026 at TEDA Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City?
Tianjin Teda 1 - 2 Chengdu Better City.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City being played?
The match is being played at TEDA Football Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City is a Super League fixture (matchday 12) (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 24% chance of winning, Chengdu Better City a 51% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Chengdu Better City will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Tianjin Teda's attack at 0.85x the league average against Chengdu Better City's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chengdu Better City's attack versus Tianjin Teda's defence, projects 1.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Tianjin Teda's last 41 games and Chengdu Better City's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
24%
4.10
25%
4.03
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.94
1.77
Chengdu Better City xG
4.10
24%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
17%
5.89
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
4%
24.14
16%
6.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 9.4 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.9 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.4 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Chengdu Better City expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.77 for Chengdu Better City, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Tianjin Teda come into this having played 60 games, going 24W 14D 22L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, Chengdu Better City sit at 1.98 PPG from 60 outings (35W 14D 11L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-D across their last five.
Chengdu Better City carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Tianjin Teda — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Tianjin Teda's home form reads 15W 9D 6L across their last 30 home games, a 1.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Chengdu Better City have taken 1.70 points per game from their last 30 away games (14W 9D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Chengdu Better City are on 2.08 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
Chengdu Better City
Current Season
Tianjin Teda (Home) vs Chengdu Better City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
Chengdu Better City
Current Season
❓ Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City Form FAQs
What form are Tianjin Teda and Chengdu Better City in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 24W 14D 22L in their last 60 games (1.43 PPG), while Chengdu Better City have gone 35W 14D 11L in their last 60 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Chengdu Better City away?
Tianjin Teda's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.80 PPG; Chengdu Better City away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Tianjin Teda or Chengdu Better City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tianjin Teda have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Chengdu Better City in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from June 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Tianjin Teda's record when hosting Chengdu Better City specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Tianjin Teda
3
Draws
4
Chengdu Better City
Recent Meetings
❓ Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Chengdu Better City?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Tianjin Teda have won 3, Chengdu Better City have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Chengdu Better City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: Chengdu Better City 0-1 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Chengdu Better City?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 43%, Chengdu Better City 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Tianjin Teda) and 60% (Chengdu Better City).
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Chengdu Better City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Better City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Tianjin Teda and Chengdu Better City matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Tianjin Teda's games and 67% of Chengdu Better City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Tianjin Teda and Chengdu Better City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Tianjin Teda's recent games and 60% of Chengdu Better City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tianjin Teda and Chengdu Better City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Tianjin Teda's recent matches and 77% of Chengdu Better City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chengdu Better City edge out Tianjin Teda 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City beat Tianjin Teda 1-2 at TEDA Football Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.17 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.77 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.85 / defence 1.16 against Chengdu Better City attack 1.26 / defence 0.82, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 24% | Draw 25% | Chengdu Better City 51%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 58%, Chengdu Better City 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.43. That form edge translated into the three points. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.