Hangzhou Greentown 1-1 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hangzhou Greentown at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hangzhou Greentown host Tianjin Teda at Huizhou Olympic Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 10 May 2026 at 11:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hangzhou Greentown stand at 2W 7D 1L from 10 Super League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hangzhou Greentown have posted 3W 6D 1L at Huizhou Olympic Stadium — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Tianjin Teda — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Super League this season, Tianjin Teda have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hangzhou Greentown 1.30 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hangzhou Greentown register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Tianjin Teda in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Hangzhou Greentown, 3 for Tianjin Teda and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2025, ended 2–0 with Hangzhou Greentown winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Hangzhou Greentown in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
Tianjin Teda in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hangzhou Greentown 67% and Tianjin Teda 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hangzhou Greentown 77% | Tianjin Teda 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 1.31 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.835 / defence 0.835 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.172 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.675 / away 1.208. Data: 40 Hangzhou Greentown games / 40 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 39% | Draw 28% | Tianjin Teda 33%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Tianjin Teda 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hangzhou Greentown offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hangzhou Greentown 80% | Tianjin Teda 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Huizhou Olympic Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 39% | Draw 28% | Tianjin Teda 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Hangzhou Greentown 1.31 / Tianjin Teda 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.835 / def 0.835 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.172 / def 0.938 | league avg home 1.675 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Tianjin Teda xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 11:35 on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Huizhou Olympic Stadium.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda?
Hangzhou Greentown 1 - 1 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Huizhou Olympic Stadium.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 39% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda?
Record (7 meetings): Hangzhou Greentown 4W | Draws 0 | Tianjin Teda 3W.
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-D-L-D. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hangzhou Greentown's attack at 0.83x the league average against Tianjin Teda's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Tianjin Teda's attack versus Hangzhou Greentown's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
39%
2.56
28%
3.56
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
2.49
1.18
Tianjin Teda xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
12%
8.37
9%
11.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.8 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 1.18 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hangzhou Greentown's recent record stands at 21W 17D 22L from 60 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-D in the last five.
Tianjin Teda, meanwhile, have gone 24W 14D 22L across 60 games — 1.43 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hangzhou Greentown on 1.33 PPG, Tianjin Teda on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hangzhou Greentown have managed 14W 11D 5L from 30 games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Hangzhou Greentown are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Tianjin Teda's away record stands at 9W 5D 16L across 30 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hangzhou Greentown come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.40 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hangzhou Greentown have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Hangzhou Greentown have gone 21W 17D 22L in their last 60 games (1.33 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 24W 14D 22L in their last 60 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hangzhou Greentown at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Hangzhou Greentown's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hangzhou Greentown at home: 1.77 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hangzhou Greentown's record when hosting Tianjin Teda specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Hangzhou Greentown
1
Draws
3
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda?
From 8 meetings on record, Hangzhou Greentown have won 4, Tianjin Teda have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Hangzhou Greentown 1-1 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hangzhou Greentown at 80%, Tianjin Teda at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Hangzhou Greentown and 70% for Tianjin Teda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 70% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hangzhou Greentown play Tianjin Teda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Hangzhou Greentown's games and 70% of Tianjin Teda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Hangzhou Greentown's matches and 70% of Tianjin Teda's.
Do Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
Hangzhou Greentown have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Huizhou Olympic Stadium, Regular Season - 11, as Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda drew 1-1 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 1.31 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.18 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.83 / defence 0.83 against Tianjin Teda attack 1.17 / defence 0.94, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 39% | Draw 28% | Tianjin Teda 33%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 77%, Tianjin Teda 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hangzhou Greentown 1.33 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.