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Poisson model rates Hangzhou Greentown at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Hangzhou Greentown host Tianjin Teda at Huzhou Olympic Sports Centre in Super League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 10 May 2026 at 11:35 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Hangzhou Greentown stand at 2W 7D 1L from 10 Super League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, Hangzhou Greentown have posted 3W 6D 1L at Huzhou Olympic Sports Centre — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Tianjin Teda — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

When travelling in Super League this season, Tianjin Teda have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hangzhou Greentown 1.30 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hangzhou Greentown register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Tianjin Teda in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Hangzhou Greentown, 4 for Tianjin Teda and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2025, ended 2–0 with Hangzhou Greentown winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Hangzhou Greentown in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%.

Tianjin Teda in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hangzhou Greentown 67% and Tianjin Teda 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hangzhou Greentown 77% | Tianjin Teda 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 1.31 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.835 / defence 0.835 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.172 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.675 / away 1.208. Data: 40 Hangzhou Greentown games / 40 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 39% | Draw 28% | Tianjin Teda 33%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Tianjin Teda 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hangzhou Greentown offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting point in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hangzhou Greentown 80% | Tianjin Teda 60% BTTS from recent games.

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