Sichuan Jiuniu 1-0 Shenyang Urban – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sichuan Jiuniu at 65% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sichuan Jiuniu face Shenyang Urban.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Baoan Stadium plays host to Sichuan Jiuniu versus Shenyang Urban in Super League (matchday 8). Kick-off: Sunday 26 April 2026 at 12:00 UK time.
Current Form
Sichuan Jiuniu's record over their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 2.25 xG and Shenyang Urban 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.141 / defence 1.239 | Shenyang Urban attack 0.733 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.693 / away 1.116. Shenyang Urban's attack rating of 0.733 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.01. Sichuan Jiuniu's defence rating of 1.239 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Shenyang Urban's projected output up. Data: built from Sichuan Jiuniu's last 37 games and Shenyang Urban's last 7.
Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 65% | Draw 19% | Shenyang Urban 16%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 1.53 | Draw 5.28 | Shenyang Urban 6.37. The model has a clear lean to Sichuan Jiuniu (65%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sichuan Jiuniu as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.27 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shenyang Urban | Competition: Super League, matchday 8 | Venue: Baoan Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 April 2026 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 65% | Draw 19% | Shenyang Urban 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Sichuan Jiuniu 2.25 / Shenyang Urban 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.141 / def 1.239 | Shenyang Urban attack 0.733 / def 1.166 | league avg home 1.693 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Sichuan Jiuniu (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.25
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Shenyang Urban xG
57%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shenyang Urban FAQs
What time does Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shenyang Urban kick off?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shenyang Urban kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Sunday 26 April 2026 at Baoan Stadium.
What was the final score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shenyang Urban?
Sichuan Jiuniu 1 - 0 Shenyang Urban.
Where is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shenyang Urban being played?
The match is being played at Baoan Stadium.
What competition is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shenyang Urban part of?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shenyang Urban is a Super League fixture (matchday 8) (China).
Who is favourite to win Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shenyang Urban?
Our statistical model gives Sichuan Jiuniu a 65% chance of winning, Shenyang Urban a 16% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Sichuan Jiuniu the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shenyang Urban?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Sichuan Jiuniu and Shenyang Urban will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shenyang Urban have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sichuan Jiuniu's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Shenyang Urban's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.25. Flip it around — Shenyang Urban's attack (0.73x) against Sichuan Jiuniu's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from Sichuan Jiuniu's last 37 games and Shenyang Urban's last 7 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sichuan Jiuniu Win
65%
1.53
19%
5.28
16%
6.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.25
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Total xG
3.27
1.01
Shenyang Urban xG
1.53
65%
Home win
5.28
19%
Draw
6.37
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
11%
9.52
Win to Nil
24%
4.21
2%
60.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.6 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shenyang Urban Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shenyang Urban?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Sichuan Jiuniu and Shenyang Urban expected to score?
The model projects 2.25 expected goals for Sichuan Jiuniu and 1.01 for Shenyang Urban, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shenyang Urban?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sichuan Jiuniu
Pre-Season
Shenyang Urban
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Sichuan Jiuniu (Home) vs Shenyang Urban (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sichuan Jiuniu
Pre-Season
Shenyang Urban
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2026 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 15 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Sichuan Jiuniu
0
Draws
0
Shenyang Urban
Recent Meetings
❓ Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shenyang Urban H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Shenyang Urban?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 2, Shenyang Urban have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sichuan Jiuniu and Shenyang Urban last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Shenyang Urban 1-2 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Who has won more matches between Sichuan Jiuniu and Shenyang Urban?
Sichuan Jiuniu have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sichuan Jiuniu home games / Shenyang Urban away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Sichuan Jiuniu edge out Shenyang Urban 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sichuan Jiuniu beat Shenyang Urban 1-0 at Baoan Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sichuan Jiuniu 2.25 xG and Shenyang Urban 1.01 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sichuan Jiuniu fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Shenyang Urban landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.14 / defence 1.24 against Shenyang Urban attack 0.73 / defence 1.17, drawn from 37/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sichuan Jiuniu 65% | Draw 19% | Shenyang Urban 16%, with Sichuan Jiuniu to win its most likely call at 65%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.