Poisson model rates Shenyang Urban at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shenyang Urban vs Dalian Zhixing fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Dalian Zhixing travel to Tiexi Stadium to take on Shenyang Urban. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 22 April 2026, 11:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dalian Zhixing stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Super League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Dalian Zhixing away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Shenyang Urban, 1 for Dalian Zhixing and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2024, ended 2–1 with Shenyang Urban winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Key Season Stats
Dalian Zhixing's cumulative Super League record this campaign: 9W 9D 12L from 30 matches. They average 1.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game. Biggest win: 2-0 (H) / 0-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-3 (H) / 4-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 4 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 11 games this season. 8 clean sheets this season (7 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 1 of 30 games (3%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 0 missed from 2 awarded. Most used formation: 4-4-2. Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards per game, 0.10 reds per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenyang Urban 2.57 xG and Dalian Zhixing 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenyang Urban attack 1.162 / defence 0.979 | Dalian Zhixing attack 1.225 / defence 1.319. League average goals — home 1.678 / away 1.155. Dalian Zhixing bring a strong defensive rating of 1.319 — this is suppressing Shenyang Urban's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Dalian Zhixing have an above-average attack strength of 1.225 — the away xG of 1.39 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 6 Shenyang Urban games / 36 Dalian Zhixing games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shenyang Urban 63% | Draw 18% | Dalian Zhixing 19%. Fair-value odds: Shenyang Urban 1.59 | Draw 5.56 | Dalian Zhixing 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Shenyang Urban (63%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.96. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.96 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.57 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shenyang Urban are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.96 combined xG gives a 76% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenyang Urban vs Dalian Zhixing | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Tiexi Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Apr 2026, 11:35 UTC • Managers: Shenyang Urban (Li Jinyu) | Dalian Zhixing (Li Guoxu) • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (2 meetings): Shenyang Urban 1W | Draws 0 | Dalian Zhixing 1W • Goals trend: 4.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Shenyang Urban 4 – 4 Dalian Zhixing • H2H markets: BTTS 100% | Over 2.5 100% | Win rates: Shenyang Urban 50% / Draw 0% / Dalian Zhixing 50% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 63% / draw 18% / away 19% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 4.00 goals/game (100% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 3.96 (76% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 100%, Poisson BTTS probability 69% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
📈 Recent Form
• Dalian Zhixing (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-D-L • Dalian Zhixing away split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | CS 1
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenyang Urban 63% | Draw 18% | Dalian Zhixing 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 69% | xG Shenyang Urban 2.57 / Dalian Zhixing 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Shenyang Urban attack 1.162 / def 0.979 | Dalian Zhixing attack 1.225 / def 1.319 | league avg home 1.678 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Shenyang Urban (63%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.57
Shenyang Urban xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Dalian Zhixing xG
69%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shenyang Urban vs Dalian Zhixing kick off?
Shenyang Urban vs Dalian Zhixing kicked off at 11:35 on Wednesday 22 April 2026 at Tiexi Stadium.
What was the final score in Shenyang Urban vs Dalian Zhixing?
Shenyang Urban 0 - 1 Dalian Zhixing.
Where is Shenyang Urban vs Dalian Zhixing being played?
The match is being played at Tiexi Stadium.
What competition is Shenyang Urban vs Dalian Zhixing part of?
Shenyang Urban vs Dalian Zhixing is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenyang Urban vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our statistical model gives Shenyang Urban a 63% chance of winning, Dalian Zhixing a 19% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Shenyang Urban the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenyang Urban vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Shenyang Urban and Dalian Zhixing will score (BTTS).
Will Shenyang Urban vs Dalian Zhixing have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shenyang Urban and Dalian Zhixing?
• Record (2 meetings): Shenyang Urban 1W | Draws 0 | Dalian Zhixing 1W • Goals trend: 4.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Shenyang Urban 4 – 4 Dalian Zhixing • H2H markets: BTTS 100% | Over 2.5 100% | Win rates: Shenyang Urban 50% / Draw 0% / Dalian Zhixing 50% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 63% / draw 18% / away 19% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 4.00 goals/game (100% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 3.96 (76% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 100%, Poisson BTTS probability 69% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
What form are Shenyang Urban and Dalian Zhixing in?
• Dalian Zhixing (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-D-L • Dalian Zhixing away split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | CS 1
What do the betting odds say about Shenyang Urban vs Dalian Zhixing?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture