Henan Jianye 0-3 Shanghai Shenhua – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 8 as Henan Jianye welcome Shanghai Shenhua to Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 April 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Henan Jianye have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Henan Jianye have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shanghai Shenhua stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Super League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Shanghai Shenhua's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Henan Jianye) versus 1.90 (Shanghai Shenhua). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Henan Jianye register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Shanghai Shenhua in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Shanghai Shenhua have the better historical record — 5 wins from 8 previous contests against 1 for Henan Jianye.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Jul 2025, ended 2–3 with Shanghai Shenhua winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Shanghai Shenhua have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Henan Jianye trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Shanghai Shenhua trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Henan Jianye 63% and Shanghai Shenhua 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 55% | Shanghai Shenhua 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.23 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.782 / defence 0.932 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.178 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.654 / away 1.129. Henan Jianye's attack strength of 0.782 is below the league average — the 1.23 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 37 Henan Jianye games / 37 Shanghai Shenhua games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 36% | Draw 27% | Shanghai Shenhua 37%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Shanghai Shenhua 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shanghai Shenhua at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shanghai Shenhua offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Henan Jianye 70% | Shanghai Shenhua 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Apr 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 36% | Draw 27% | Shanghai Shenhua 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Henan Jianye 1.23 / Shanghai Shenhua 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 0.782 / def 0.932 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.178 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.654 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Shanghai Shenhua xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 26 April 2026 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Henan Jianye 0 - 3 Shanghai Shenhua.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua part of?
Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 36% chance of winning, Shanghai Shenhua a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Henan Jianye and Shanghai Shenhua will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Shanghai Shenhua?
Record (8 meetings): Henan Jianye 1W | Draws 2 | Shanghai Shenhua 5W.
What form are Henan Jianye and Shanghai Shenhua in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Henan Jianye's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Shanghai Shenhua's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, Shanghai Shenhua's attack versus Henan Jianye's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
36%
2.76
27%
3.68
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
2.47
1.24
Shanghai Shenhua xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
10%
9.53
11%
9.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.5 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.9 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Shanghai Shenhua expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 1.24 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Henan Jianye come into this having played 60 games, going 19W 16D 25L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-D.
On the other side, Shanghai Shenhua sit at 2.35 PPG from 60 outings (43W 12D 5L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five.
Shanghai Shenhua carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.13 PPG clear of Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Henan Jianye's home form reads 12W 7D 11L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Shanghai Shenhua have taken 2.27 points per game from 30 outings (21W 5D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shanghai Shenhua come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Shanghai Shenhua are on 2.33 scored and 0.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Henan Jianye have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Current Season
Shanghai Shenhua
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and Shanghai Shenhua in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 19W 16D 25L in their last 60 games (1.22 PPG), while Shanghai Shenhua have gone 43W 12D 5L in their last 60 (2.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Shanghai Shenhua away?
Shanghai Shenhua's away record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 1.43 PPG; Shanghai Shenhua away: 2.27 PPG.
Have Henan Jianye or Shanghai Shenhua been keeping clean sheets recently?
Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Shanghai Shenhua in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Henan Jianye and Shanghai Shenhua runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Shanghai Shenhua have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Sep 2023, when Henan Jianye won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Henan Jianye's record when hosting Shanghai Shenhua specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Henan Jianye
2
Draws
7
Shanghai Shenhua
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Shanghai Shenhua?
From 10 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 1, Shanghai Shenhua have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Shanghai Shenhua last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Shanghai Shenhua 4-1 Henan Jianye.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Shanghai Shenhua?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 63%, Shanghai Shenhua 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Henan Jianye) and 53% (Shanghai Shenhua). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shanghai Shenhua in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Shanghai Shenhua away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play Shanghai Shenhua?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Henan Jianye's games and 50% of Shanghai Shenhua's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Henan Jianye's matches and 53% of Shanghai Shenhua's.
Do Henan Jianye and Shanghai Shenhua tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Shanghai Shenhua in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shanghai Shenhua run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Henan Jianye.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua beat Henan Jianye 0-3 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 1.23 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.24 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Henan Jianye fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Shanghai Shenhua outscored their 1.24 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 0.78 / defence 0.93 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.18 / defence 0.95, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 36% | Draw 27% | Shanghai Shenhua 37%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 55%, Shanghai Shenhua 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.22. Form held, and they took the win. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.