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Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown at 59% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu encounter.

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Analysis

Sichuan Jiuniu make the trip to Huzhou Olympic Sports Centre to face Hangzhou Greentown in Super League, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 May 2026 at 11:35 UTC.

Form

Hangzhou Greentown (all games): 2W 7D 1L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at Huzhou Olympic Sports Centre, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 3W 6D 1L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Sichuan Jiuniu have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Sichuan Jiuniu away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Hangzhou Greentown against 1.00 for Sichuan Jiuniu. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Hangzhou Greentown lead 4W to 2W over the last 7 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Aug 2025, ended 4–2 with Hangzhou Greentown winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Season Stats

The hosts have accumulated 10W 12D 8L from their 30 Super League appearances this term. Their scoring output is 2.0 per match with 1.7 conceded on average. Biggest win: 3-0 (H) / 0-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 3-4 (H) / 3-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 4 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 5 games this season. 6 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 3 away). Scored 2+ goals in 10 of 30 games (33%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 0 missed from 2 awarded. Most used formation: 3-4-2-1. Discipline: 1.5 yellow cards per game, 0.13 reds per game.

Trading Data

Hangzhou Greentown goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%.

Sichuan Jiuniu goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hangzhou Greentown 67% and Sichuan Jiuniu 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hangzhou Greentown 77% | Sichuan Jiuniu 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 1.65 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.819 / defence 0.834 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.752 / defence 1.199. League average goals — home 1.676 / away 1.163. Data: 38 Hangzhou Greentown games / 38 Sichuan Jiuniu games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 59% | Draw 24% | Sichuan Jiuniu 16%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | Sichuan Jiuniu 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Hangzhou Greentown (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Hangzhou Greentown are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. This conflicts with form data: Hangzhou Greentown 80% | Sichuan Jiuniu 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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