Hangzhou Greentown 2-1 Sichuan Jiuniu – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown at 59% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sichuan Jiuniu make the trip to Huizhou Olympic Stadium to face Hangzhou Greentown in Super League, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 May 2026 at 11:35 UTC.
Form
Hangzhou Greentown (all games): 2W 7D 1L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Huizhou Olympic Stadium, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 3W 6D 1L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sichuan Jiuniu have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sichuan Jiuniu away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Hangzhou Greentown against 1.00 for Sichuan Jiuniu. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Hangzhou Greentown lead 3W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Aug 2025, ended 4–2 with Hangzhou Greentown winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Hangzhou Greentown goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
Sichuan Jiuniu goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hangzhou Greentown 67% and Sichuan Jiuniu 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hangzhou Greentown 77% | Sichuan Jiuniu 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 1.65 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.819 / defence 0.834 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.752 / defence 1.199. League average goals — home 1.676 / away 1.163. Data: 38 Hangzhou Greentown games / 38 Sichuan Jiuniu games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 59% | Draw 24% | Sichuan Jiuniu 16%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | Sichuan Jiuniu 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Hangzhou Greentown (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hangzhou Greentown are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. This conflicts with form data: Hangzhou Greentown 80% | Sichuan Jiuniu 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Huizhou Olympic Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 59% | Draw 24% | Sichuan Jiuniu 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 42% | xG Hangzhou Greentown 1.65 / Sichuan Jiuniu 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.819 / def 0.834 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.752 / def 1.199 | league avg home 1.676 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
42%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu kicked off at 11:35 on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Huizhou Olympic Stadium.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Hangzhou Greentown 2 - 1 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu being played?
The match is being played at Huizhou Olympic Stadium.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 59% chance of winning, Sichuan Jiuniu a 16% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Sichuan Jiuniu will score (BTTS).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Record (4 meetings): Hangzhou Greentown 3W | Draws 0 | Sichuan Jiuniu 1W.
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Sichuan Jiuniu in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-D-L-D. Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Hangzhou Greentown's attack rating (0.82) and Sichuan Jiuniu's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.65 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sichuan Jiuniu's attack (0.75x) against Hangzhou Greentown's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.6%), 2-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
59%
1.68
24%
4.12
16%
6.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
2.38
0.73
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
1.68
59%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
6.12
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
19%
5.19
Win to Nil
29%
3.50
3%
31.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 11.2 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 9.2 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Sichuan Jiuniu expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 0.73 for Sichuan Jiuniu, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hangzhou Greentown come into this having played 60 games, going 21W 17D 22L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-D.
On the other side, Sichuan Jiuniu sit at 0.93 PPG from 60 outings (15W 11D 34L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-D across their last five.
Hangzhou Greentown carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of Sichuan Jiuniu — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Hangzhou Greentown's home form reads 14W 11D 5L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.77 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Hangzhou Greentown are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sichuan Jiuniu have taken 0.67 points per game from 30 outings (5W 5D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hangzhou Greentown come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Sichuan Jiuniu are on 1.07 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hangzhou Greentown have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
Sichuan Jiuniu
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Sichuan Jiuniu in coming into this match?
Hangzhou Greentown have gone 21W 17D 22L in their last 60 games (1.33 PPG), while Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 15W 11D 34L in their last 60 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hangzhou Greentown at home or Sichuan Jiuniu away?
Hangzhou Greentown's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hangzhou Greentown at home: 1.77 PPG; Sichuan Jiuniu away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since March 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hangzhou Greentown won 3-0 on 1 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sichuan Jiuniu — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Hangzhou Greentown
1
Draws
1
Sichuan Jiuniu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Sichuan Jiuniu?
From 6 meetings on record, Hangzhou Greentown have won 4, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Sichuan Jiuniu last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Sichuan Jiuniu 1-1 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between Hangzhou Greentown and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Sichuan Jiuniu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hangzhou Greentown 80%, Sichuan Jiuniu 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Hangzhou Greentown and 57% for Sichuan Jiuniu. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 70% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sichuan Jiuniu in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Sichuan Jiuniu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hangzhou Greentown play Sichuan Jiuniu?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Hangzhou Greentown's games and 47% of Sichuan Jiuniu's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Hangzhou Greentown's matches and 57% of Sichuan Jiuniu's.
Do Hangzhou Greentown and Sichuan Jiuniu tend to score early?
Hangzhou Greentown have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Sichuan Jiuniu in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hangzhou Greentown edge out Sichuan Jiuniu 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown beat Sichuan Jiuniu 2-1 at Huizhou Olympic Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 1.65 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 0.73 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.82 / defence 0.83 against Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.75 / defence 1.20, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 59% | Draw 24% | Sichuan Jiuniu 16%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 77%, Sichuan Jiuniu 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hangzhou Greentown arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.93. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.