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Poisson model favours Shandong Luneng (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Qingdao Jonoon face Shandong Luneng.

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Analysis & Preview

A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Shandong Luneng travel to Qingdao Youth Football Stadium to take on Qingdao Jonoon. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 April 2026, 09:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Qingdao Jonoon stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, Qingdao Jonoon have posted 4W 3D 3L at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Shandong Luneng — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

When travelling in Super League this season, Shandong Luneng have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Shandong Luneng are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

Head to Head

Despite the anticipated home advantage, Shandong Luneng have the better historical record — 4 wins from 7 previous contests against 0 for Qingdao Jonoon.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.

It is worth noting that Shandong Luneng have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Key Season Stats

On the season-wide numbers, Qingdao Jonoon show 5W 10D 15L from 30 outings in Super League. Their scoring output is 1.2 per match with 1.6 conceded on average. Biggest win: 5-1 (H) / 2-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-3 (H) / 4-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 4 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 12 games this season. 4 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 4 of 30 games (13%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 0 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 5-4-1. Discipline: 2.7 yellow cards per game, 0.20 reds per game.

Shandong Luneng's cumulative Super League record this campaign: 15W 8D 7L from 30 matches. Their scoring output is 2.3 per match with 1.5 conceded on average. Biggest win: 6-0 (H) / 1-5 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-3 (H) / 6-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 4 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 4 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 5 games this season. 4 clean sheets this season (4 at home, 0 away). Scored 2+ goals in 13 of 30 games (43%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 0 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 3-4-2-1. Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards per game, 0.23 reds per game.

Shandong Luneng have been the more prolific side this season at 2.30 goals per game compared to 1.20 for the hosts. Shandong Luneng score 2+ goals far more often (43% vs 13%) — a meaningful difference for goal-line markets. Penalty activity: Qingdao Jonoon 4/4 vs Shandong Luneng 4/4 this season.

In-Play Data

Qingdao Jonoon trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 45% of games.

Shandong Luneng trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 43% versus Shandong Luneng 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 42% | Shandong Luneng 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.20 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.721 / defence 1.076 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.069 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.652 / away 1.120. Qingdao Jonoon's attack strength of 0.721 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 37 Qingdao Jonoon games / 37 Shandong Luneng games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 34% | Draw 27% | Shandong Luneng 38%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Shandong Luneng 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Shandong Luneng as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shandong Luneng offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.4 goals per game points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Qingdao Jonoon 50% | Shandong Luneng 80% BTTS from recent games.

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