Qingdao Jonoon 4-1 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shandong Luneng (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Qingdao Jonoon face Shandong Luneng.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Shandong Luneng travel to Qingdao Youth Football Stadium to take on Qingdao Jonoon. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 April 2026, 09:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Qingdao Jonoon stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Qingdao Jonoon have posted 4W 3D 3L at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Shandong Luneng — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Super League this season, Shandong Luneng have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Shandong Luneng are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Shandong Luneng have the better historical record — 3 wins from 6 previous contests against 0 for Qingdao Jonoon.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Shandong Luneng have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Qingdao Jonoon trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 45% of games.
Shandong Luneng trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 43% versus Shandong Luneng 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 42% | Shandong Luneng 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.20 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.721 / defence 1.076 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.069 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.652 / away 1.120. Qingdao Jonoon's attack strength of 0.721 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 37 Qingdao Jonoon games / 37 Shandong Luneng games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 34% | Draw 27% | Shandong Luneng 38%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Shandong Luneng 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shandong Luneng as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shandong Luneng offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.4 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Qingdao Jonoon 50% | Shandong Luneng 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Jonoon vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Qingdao Youth Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Apr 2026, 09:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 34% | Draw 27% | Shandong Luneng 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Qingdao Jonoon 1.20 / Shandong Luneng 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.721 / def 1.076 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.069 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.652 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Shandong Luneng xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Jonoon vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 09:00 on Sunday 26 April 2026 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Shandong Luneng?
Qingdao Jonoon 4 - 1 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Qingdao Jonoon vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Jonoon vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Shandong Luneng is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Jonoon vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Jonoon a 34% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Qingdao Jonoon and Shandong Luneng will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Jonoon vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Shandong Luneng?
Record (6 meetings): Qingdao Jonoon 0W | Draws 3 | Shandong Luneng 3W.
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Shandong Luneng in?
Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Shandong Luneng (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Qingdao Jonoon's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Shandong Luneng's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. The same calculation in reverse, Shandong Luneng's attack versus Qingdao Jonoon's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
34%
2.90
27%
3.70
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Total xG
2.49
1.29
Shandong Luneng xG
2.90
34%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
10%
10.52
12%
8.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.7 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.8 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Jonoon vs Shandong Luneng?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Qingdao Jonoon and Shandong Luneng expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 1.29 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Jonoon vs Shandong Luneng?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Qingdao Jonoon have picked up 0.90 PPG on a 13W 15D 32L record — L-L-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Shandong Luneng's form line: 28W 17D 15L from 60 games, 1.68 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Shandong Luneng are the form team by 0.78 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Qingdao Jonoon.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Qingdao Jonoon have posted 1.30 PPG from 30 outings (10W 9D 11L). That's noticeably better than their 0.90 PPG overall — Qingdao Jonoon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Shandong Luneng have gone 10W 10D 10L from 30 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Qingdao Jonoon are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Shandong Luneng are on 1.97 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shandong Luneng in 62%.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Jonoon
Current Season
Shandong Luneng
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Shandong Luneng in coming into this match?
Qingdao Jonoon have gone 13W 15D 32L in their last 60 games (0.90 PPG), while Shandong Luneng have gone 28W 17D 15L in their last 60 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Jonoon at home or Shandong Luneng away?
Shandong Luneng's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Jonoon at home: 1.30 PPG; Shandong Luneng away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Qingdao Jonoon and Shandong Luneng runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Apr 2026, when Qingdao Jonoon won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Qingdao Jonoon's record when hosting Shandong Luneng specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Qingdao Jonoon
3
Draws
4
Shandong Luneng
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Shandong Luneng?
From 8 meetings on record, Qingdao Jonoon have won 1, Shandong Luneng have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Jonoon and Shandong Luneng last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when Shandong Luneng 3-1 Qingdao Jonoon.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Jonoon and Shandong Luneng?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Jonoon 50%, Shandong Luneng 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Qingdao Jonoon) and 63% (Shandong Luneng).
On the defensive side: Qingdao Jonoon have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Jonoon home games / Shandong Luneng away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Jonoon play Shandong Luneng?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Qingdao Jonoon's games and 67% of Shandong Luneng's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Qingdao Jonoon vs Shandong Luneng usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent games and 63% of Shandong Luneng's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Qingdao Jonoon and Shandong Luneng tend to score early?
Qingdao Jonoon have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Shandong Luneng in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Qingdao Jonoon run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Shandong Luneng.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Qingdao Jonoon beat Shandong Luneng 4-1 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 1.20 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.29 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Qingdao Jonoon beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.72 / defence 1.08 against Shandong Luneng attack 1.07 / defence 1.01, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 34% | Draw 27% | Shandong Luneng 38%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Qingdao Jonoon win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Jonoon 42%, Shandong Luneng 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 0.90. Form was overturned, with Qingdao Jonoon winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.