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Poisson model rates Chongqing Tongliang Long at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Youth Island fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 8 as Chongqing Tongliang Long welcome Qingdao Youth Island to Tongliang Long Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 April 2026 at 11:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Across all Super League games this season, Qingdao Youth Island have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Qingdao Youth Island have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

Season Statistics

The visitors have accumulated 10W 10D 10L from their 30 Super League appearances this term. Their scoring output is 1.3 per match with 1.4 conceded on average. Biggest win: 3-1 (H) / 0-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-5 (H) / 4-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 8 games this season. 8 clean sheets this season (6 at home, 2 away). Scored 2+ goals in 3 of 30 games (10%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 0 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards per game, 0.10 reds per game.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.86 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.945 / defence 1.072 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.813 / defence 1.165. League average goals — home 1.693 / away 1.116. Data: 7 Chongqing Tongliang Long games / 37 Qingdao Youth Island games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Chongqing Tongliang Long 58% | Draw 22% | Qingdao Youth Island 19%. Fair-value odds: Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.72 | Draw 4.55 | Qingdao Youth Island 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Chongqing Tongliang Long (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Chongqing Tongliang Long as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

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