Chongqing Tongliang Long 1-1 Qingdao Youth Island – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chongqing Tongliang Long at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Youth Island fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 8 as Chongqing Tongliang Long welcome Qingdao Youth Island to Tongliang Long Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 April 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Across all Super League games this season, Qingdao Youth Island have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Qingdao Youth Island have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.86 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.945 / defence 1.072 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.813 / defence 1.165. League average goals — home 1.693 / away 1.116. Data: 7 Chongqing Tongliang Long games / 37 Qingdao Youth Island games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chongqing Tongliang Long 58% | Draw 22% | Qingdao Youth Island 19%. Fair-value odds: Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.72 | Draw 4.55 | Qingdao Youth Island 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Chongqing Tongliang Long (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chongqing Tongliang Long as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Youth Island | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Tongliang Long Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Apr 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chongqing Tongliang Long 58% | Draw 22% | Qingdao Youth Island 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 53% | xG Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.86 / Qingdao Youth Island 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.945 / def 1.072 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.813 / def 1.165 | league avg home 1.693 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Chongqing Tongliang Long (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Qingdao Youth Island xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Youth Island kick off?
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Youth Island kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 26 April 2026 at Tongliang Long Stadium.
What was the final score in Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Chongqing Tongliang Long 1 - 1 Qingdao Youth Island.
Where is Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Youth Island being played?
The match is being played at Tongliang Long Stadium.
What competition is Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Youth Island part of?
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Youth Island is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our statistical model gives Chongqing Tongliang Long a 58% chance of winning, Qingdao Youth Island a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Chongqing Tongliang Long the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Chongqing Tongliang Long and Qingdao Youth Island will score (BTTS).
Will Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Youth Island have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chongqing Tongliang Long and Qingdao Youth Island?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chongqing Tongliang Long and Qingdao Youth Island in?
Qingdao Youth Island (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Qingdao Youth Island away split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Chongqing Tongliang Long's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Qingdao Youth Island's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.86. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Youth Island's attack versus Chongqing Tongliang Long's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chongqing Tongliang Long Win
58%
1.72
22%
4.46
19%
5.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
Total xG
2.84
0.97
Qingdao Youth Island xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
5.17
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
16%
6.45
Win to Nil
22%
4.54
3%
33.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 10.6 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Chongqing Tongliang Long and Qingdao Youth Island expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Chongqing Tongliang Long and 0.97 for Qingdao Youth Island, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Pre-Season
Qingdao Youth Island
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Chongqing Tongliang Long
2
Draws
0
Qingdao Youth Island
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chongqing Tongliang Long and Qingdao Youth Island?
From 2 meetings on record, Chongqing Tongliang Long have won 0, Qingdao Youth Island have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chongqing Tongliang Long and Qingdao Youth Island last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when Qingdao Youth Island 0-0 Chongqing Tongliang Long.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chongqing Tongliang Long home games / Qingdao Youth Island away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Chongqing Tongliang Long and Qingdao Youth Island share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chongqing Tongliang Long and Qingdao Youth Island finished level at 1-1 at Tongliang Long Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.86 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 0.97 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Chongqing Tongliang Long fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.94 / defence 1.07 against Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.81 / defence 1.17, drawn from 7/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chongqing Tongliang Long 58% | Draw 22% | Qingdao Youth Island 19%, with Chongqing Tongliang Long to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.