SHANGHAI SIPG 4-0 Wuhan Three Towns – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours SHANGHAI SIPG (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as SHANGHAI SIPG face Wuhan Three Towns.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SHANGHAI SIPG host Wuhan Three Towns at Pudong Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 25 April 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Pudong Football Stadium, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Wuhan Three Towns — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Wuhan Three Towns's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, SHANGHAI SIPG have the edge — a 1.80 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SHANGHAI SIPG register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Wuhan Three Towns in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
SHANGHAI SIPG hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 6 wins from 8 previous encounters compared to 2 for Wuhan Three Towns, with 0 draws in between.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2025, ended 3–2 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both SHANGHAI SIPG and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
SHANGHAI SIPG in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
Wuhan Three Towns in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SHANGHAI SIPG 70% and Wuhan Three Towns 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SHANGHAI SIPG 77% | Wuhan Three Towns 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 2.40 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.135 / defence 1.144 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.000 / defence 1.298. League average goals — home 1.632 / away 1.139. Wuhan Three Towns bring a strong defensive rating of 1.298 — this is suppressing SHANGHAI SIPG's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 37 Wuhan Three Towns games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 62% | Draw 19% | Wuhan Three Towns 20%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 1.61 | Draw 5.26 | Wuhan Three Towns 5.00. The model has a clear lean to SHANGHAI SIPG (62%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.71. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.71 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.40 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SHANGHAI SIPG 80% | Wuhan Three Towns 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Wuhan Three Towns | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Pudong Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Apr 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 62% | Draw 19% | Wuhan Three Towns 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 66% | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 2.40 / Wuhan Three Towns 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.135 / def 1.144 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.000 / def 1.298 | league avg home 1.632 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.40
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Wuhan Three Towns xG
66%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Wuhan Three Towns kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Wuhan Three Towns kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Pudong Football Stadium.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Wuhan Three Towns?
SHANGHAI SIPG 4 - 0 Wuhan Three Towns.
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Wuhan Three Towns being played?
The match is being played at Pudong Football Stadium.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Wuhan Three Towns part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Wuhan Three Towns is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 62% chance of winning, Wuhan Three Towns a 20% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Wuhan Three Towns will score (BTTS).
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Wuhan Three Towns have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Wuhan Three Towns?
Record (8 meetings): SHANGHAI SIPG 6W | Draws 0 | Wuhan Three Towns 2W.
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Wuhan Three Towns in?
SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SHANGHAI SIPG's attack at 1.14x the league average against Wuhan Three Towns's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 2.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wuhan Three Towns's attack versus SHANGHAI SIPG's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.7%), 3-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
62%
1.62
19%
5.34
20%
5.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
3 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.40
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
3.71
1.30
Wuhan Three Towns xG
1.62
62%
Home win
5.34
19%
Draw
5.13
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.96
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
9%
11.06
Win to Nil
17%
5.95
2%
56.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Wuhan Three Towns expected to score?
The model projects 2.40 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 1.30 for Wuhan Three Towns, a combined total of 3.71.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, SHANGHAI SIPG have picked up 2.40 PPG on a 45W 9D 6L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Wuhan Three Towns's form line: 14W 14D 32L from 60 games, 0.93 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L.
Put side by side, SHANGHAI SIPG are the form team by 1.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Wuhan Three Towns.
Venue Form
On home soil, SHANGHAI SIPG have posted 2.47 PPG from 30 outings (23W 5D 2L).
On the road, Wuhan Three Towns have gone 6W 7D 17L from 30 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SHANGHAI SIPG are averaging 2.80 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Three Towns are on 1.08 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SHANGHAI SIPG have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Current Season
Wuhan Three Towns
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Wuhan Three Towns in coming into this match?
SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 45W 9D 6L in their last 60 games (2.40 PPG), while Wuhan Three Towns have gone 14W 14D 32L in their last 60 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SHANGHAI SIPG at home or Wuhan Three Towns away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record (2.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SHANGHAI SIPG at home: 2.47 PPG; Wuhan Three Towns away: 0.83 PPG.
Have SHANGHAI SIPG or Wuhan Three Towns been keeping clean sheets recently?
SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Wuhan Three Towns in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
SHANGHAI SIPG go into this on the back of 8 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Apr 2026, when SHANGHAI SIPG won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SHANGHAI SIPG's record when hosting Wuhan Three Towns specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
SHANGHAI SIPG
0
Draws
2
Wuhan Three Towns
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Wuhan Three Towns?
From 10 meetings on record, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 8, Wuhan Three Towns have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Wuhan Three Towns last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when Wuhan Three Towns 2-3 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between SHANGHAI SIPG and Wuhan Three Towns?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SHANGHAI SIPG at 77%, Wuhan Three Towns at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for SHANGHAI SIPG and 53% for Wuhan Three Towns. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wuhan Three Towns in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Wuhan Three Towns away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SHANGHAI SIPG play Wuhan Three Towns?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of SHANGHAI SIPG's games and 60% of Wuhan Three Towns's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Wuhan Three Towns usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of SHANGHAI SIPG's matches and 53% of Wuhan Three Towns's.
Do SHANGHAI SIPG and Wuhan Three Towns tend to score early?
SHANGHAI SIPG have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Wuhan Three Towns in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SHANGHAI SIPG run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Wuhan Three Towns.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Wuhan Three Towns 4-0 at Pudong Football Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 2.40 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.30 xG, a combined 3.71. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. SHANGHAI SIPG beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Wuhan Three Towns landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.14 / defence 1.14 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.00 / defence 1.30, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 62% | Draw 19% | Wuhan Three Towns 20%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 77%, Wuhan Three Towns 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 0.93. Form held, and they took the win. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 3.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.