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Poisson rates Sichuan Jiuniu at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sichuan Jiuniu vs Beijing Guoan encounter.

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Full Analysis

Shenzhen Stadium plays host to Sichuan Jiuniu versus Beijing Guoan in Super League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Tuesday 21 April 2026 at 11:00 UTC.

Current Form

Sichuan Jiuniu's overall Super League record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, Sichuan Jiuniu have posted 4W 1D 5L at Shenzhen Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Beijing Guoan have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: W L L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling in Super League this season, Beijing Guoan have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.

Beijing Guoan arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Sichuan Jiuniu, 1 for Beijing Guoan and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 2–1 with Sichuan Jiuniu winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Season Stats

The hosts have accumulated 8W 3D 19L from their 30 Super League appearances this term. They average 1.2 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 1-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 2-4 (H) / 5-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Worst losing run: 5 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 8 games this season. 5 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 2 away). Scored 2+ goals in 4 of 30 games (13%). Penalties this season: 1 scored / 0 missed from 1 awarded. Most used formation: 5-3-2. Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards per game, 0.10 reds per game.

Beijing Guoan's full-season record stands at 17W 6D 7L from 30 games. Their scoring output is 2.3 per match with 1.5 conceded on average. Biggest win: 6-1 (H) / 0-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 2-4 (H) / 6-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 5 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 3 games this season. 8 clean sheets this season (4 at home, 4 away). Scored 2+ goals in 10 of 30 games (33%). Penalties this season: 5 scored / 0 missed from 5 awarded. Most used formation: 3-5-2. Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards per game, 0.17 reds per game.

Beijing Guoan have been the more prolific side this season at 2.30 goals per game compared to 1.20 for the hosts. Beijing Guoan have kept their defensive record in better shape, conceding 1.50 per game versus 2.00 for the hosts. Beijing Guoan lead on clean sheets this season (8 vs 5). Beijing Guoan score 2+ goals far more often (33% vs 13%) — a meaningful difference for goal-line markets. Penalty activity: Sichuan Jiuniu 1/1 vs Beijing Guoan 5/5 this season.

Trading Data

Sichuan Jiuniu goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.

Beijing Guoan goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sichuan Jiuniu 57% and Beijing Guoan 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sichuan Jiuniu 63% | Beijing Guoan 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 1.84 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.290 / defence 1.279 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.980 / defence 0.824. League average goals — home 1.728 / away 1.158. Sichuan Jiuniu carry an above-average attack strength of 1.290 — their λ of 1.84 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 36 Sichuan Jiuniu games / 36 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 47% | Draw 23% | Beijing Guoan 31%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 2.13 | Draw 4.35 | Beijing Guoan 3.23. Sichuan Jiuniu hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.84 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

Sichuan Jiuniu dominate the H2H record, yet Beijing Guoan are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.

The Poisson model's primary lean is Sichuan Jiuniu at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Beijing Guoan (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sichuan Jiuniu if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.29 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sichuan Jiuniu 80% | Beijing Guoan 40% BTTS from recent games.

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