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Poisson rates Sichuan Jiuniu at 65% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shenyang Urban encounter.

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Full Analysis

Baoan Stadium plays host to Sichuan Jiuniu versus Shenyang Urban in Super League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Sunday 26 April 2026 at 11:00 UTC.

Current Form

Sichuan Jiuniu's overall Super League record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at Baoan Stadium, Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

H2H History

The head-to-head record favours Sichuan Jiuniu, who have won 5 of the last 7 meetings against Shenyang Urban — a 2D 0W return for the visitors.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 7 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2023, ended 1–0 with Sichuan Jiuniu winning.

The historical record gives Sichuan Jiuniu a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Stats

Across 30 matches this season, Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 8W 3D 19L. Attacking returns: 1.2 goals per game; defensive: 2.0 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 1-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 2-4 (H) / 5-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Worst losing run: 5 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 8 games this season. 5 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 2 away). Scored 2+ goals in 4 of 30 games (13%). Penalties this season: 1 scored / 0 missed from 1 awarded. Most used formation: 5-3-2. Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards per game, 0.10 reds per game.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 2.25 xG and Shenyang Urban 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.141 / defence 1.239 | Shenyang Urban attack 0.733 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.693 / away 1.116. Data: 37 Sichuan Jiuniu games / 7 Shenyang Urban games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 65% | Draw 19% | Shenyang Urban 16%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 1.54 | Draw 5.26 | Shenyang Urban 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Sichuan Jiuniu (65%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Sichuan Jiuniu as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.27 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

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