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Poisson model favours Qingdao Youth Island (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Qingdao Youth Island face Dalian Zhixing.

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Full Analysis

Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center plays host to Qingdao Youth Island versus Dalian Zhixing in Super League, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Sunday 11 October 2026 at 10:00 UTC.

Form

Qingdao Youth Island (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Youth Island, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center, Qingdao Youth Island have gone 4W 6D 0L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Dalian Zhixing's overall Super League record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Zhixing, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Super League this season, Dalian Zhixing have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Qingdao Youth Island's favour (1.70 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Qingdao Youth Island register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Dalian Zhixing in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

Head-to-Head

Historically, Qingdao Youth Island have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 3 meetings, with Dalian Zhixing managing just 0 victories and 0 draws shared.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2026, ended 3–2 with Qingdao Youth Island winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Qingdao Youth Island and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Statistical Overview

Qingdao Youth Island's cumulative Super League record this campaign: 5W 9D 4L from 18 matches. Their scoring output is 1.2 per match with 1.6 conceded on average. Biggest win: 3-1 (H) / 2-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: – (H) / 5-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 7 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 4 games this season. 3 clean sheets this season (2 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 3 of 18 games (17%). Penalties this season: 3 scored / 2 missed from 5 awarded. Most used formation: 4-4-1-1. Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards per game, 0.11 reds per game.

League Table

Dalian Zhixing hold the table advantage, sitting 3rd with 25 points — 3 positions and 1 point clear of Qingdao Youth Island in 6th.

On home turf, Qingdao Youth Island's Super League record reads 3W 6D 0L this term. Dalian Zhixing have gone 2W 1D 5L on their travels.

Trading & In-Play

Qingdao Youth Island — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).

Dalian Zhixing — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Youth Island 62% versus Dalian Zhixing 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Youth Island 49% | Dalian Zhixing 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Youth Island 1.70 xG and Dalian Zhixing 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.923 / defence 0.835 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.828 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.361. Data: 48 Qingdao Youth Island games / 47 Dalian Zhixing games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 55% | Draw 24% | Dalian Zhixing 21%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Youth Island 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Dalian Zhixing 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Qingdao Youth Island (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Qingdao Youth Island as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data: Qingdao Youth Island 70% | Dalian Zhixing 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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