Poisson model favours Hangzhou Greentown (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Hangzhou Greentown face Wuhan Three Towns.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 22 as Hangzhou Greentown welcome Wuhan Three Towns to Huizhou Olympic Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 8 August 2026 at 11:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hangzhou Greentown at Huizhou Olympic Stadium this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Wuhan Three Towns — All Games: 0W 6D 4L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Three Towns, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Wuhan Three Towns have posted 0W 5D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Hangzhou Greentown are in the better shape of the two on current Super League data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hangzhou Greentown register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Wuhan Three Towns in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Hangzhou Greentown have dominated this rivalry, winning 7 of 10 past contests while Wuhan Three Towns have managed just 2 wins.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2026, ended 0–2 with Wuhan Three Towns winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Hangzhou Greentown and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Team Stats
Hangzhou Greentown have played 17 games this season, recording 6W 4D 7L. Their scoring output is 1.4 per match with 1.7 conceded on average. Biggest win: 4-1 (H) / 1-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-5 (H) / 4-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 6 games this season. 3 clean sheets this season (2 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 2 of 17 games (12%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 1 missed from 3 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.6 yellow cards per game, 0.12 reds per game.
Wuhan Three Towns's cumulative Super League record this campaign: 2W 7D 8L from 17 matches. They average 1.4 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game. Biggest win: 4-1 (H) / – (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-3 (H) / 4-0 (A). Longest draw run: 5 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 4 games this season. 1 clean sheet this season (1 at home, 0 away). Scored 2+ goals in 2 of 17 games (12%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 0 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.7 yellow cards per game, 0.12 reds per game.
Hangzhou Greentown lead on clean sheets this season (3 vs 1). Penalty activity: Hangzhou Greentown 2/3 vs Wuhan Three Towns 4/4 this season.
Standings Snapshot
Hangzhou Greentown hold the table advantage, sitting 11th with 17 points — 5 positions and 9 points clear of Wuhan Three Towns in 16th.
Hangzhou Greentown's home record this season stands at 3W 3D 2L. On the road, Wuhan Three Towns's record stands at 0W 5D 5L this term. Wuhan Three Towns: Relegation - League One.
Trading Patterns
Hangzhou Greentown in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Wuhan Three Towns in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hangzhou Greentown 62% and Wuhan Three Towns 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hangzhou Greentown 68% | Wuhan Three Towns 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 1.84 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.886 / defence 1.077 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.995 / defence 1.209. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.361. Wuhan Three Towns bring a strong defensive rating of 1.209 — this is suppressing Hangzhou Greentown's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Hangzhou Greentown games / 47 Wuhan Three Towns games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 47% | Draw 23% | Wuhan Three Towns 31%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 2.13 | Draw 4.35 | Wuhan Three Towns 3.23. Hangzhou Greentown hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.84 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hangzhou Greentown offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.30 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Hangzhou Greentown 60% | Wuhan Three Towns 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Huizhou Olympic Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Aug 2026, 11:35 UTC • Manager edge: Wuhan Three Towns led by Deng Zhuoxiang • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (10 meetings): Hangzhou Greentown 7W | Draws 1 | Wuhan Three Towns 2W • Goals trend: 2.80 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Hangzhou Greentown 18 – 10 Wuhan Three Towns • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 60% | Win rates: Hangzhou Greentown 70% / Draw 10% / Wuhan Three Towns 20% • Historical edge: Hangzhou Greentown dominant — 7W from 10 meetings (70% win rate) • H2H vs Poisson: both agree — Hangzhou Greentown favoured. H2H win rate 70%, Poisson win probability 47% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 2.80 goals/game (60% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 3.30 (64% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 65% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-L • Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-D-L-L • Hangzhou Greentown home split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | CS 2 • Wuhan Three Towns away split: 0.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 2.40 | CS 0 • Form edge: Hangzhou Greentown lead by 0.80 PPG (1.40 vs 0.60) • xG vs form (Hangzhou Greentown): Poisson projects 1.84 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.40 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Wuhan Three Towns): Poisson xG of 1.46 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.40 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.3 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.30 (64% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: strong YES — form rates Hangzhou Greentown 6/10, Wuhan Three Towns 8/10; Poisson BTTS probability 65% — all signals aligned • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Hangzhou Greentown — Hangzhou Greentown at 47% Poisson win probability
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 47% | Draw 23% | Wuhan Three Towns 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Hangzhou Greentown 1.84 / Wuhan Three Towns 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.886 / def 1.077 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.995 / def 1.209 | league avg home 1.721 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (47%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Wuhan Three Towns xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns is scheduled to kick off at 11:35 on Saturday 8 August 2026 at Huizhou Olympic Stadium.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns being played?
The match is being played at Huizhou Olympic Stadium.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 47% chance of winning, Wuhan Three Towns a 31% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Wuhan Three Towns will score (BTTS).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Wuhan Three Towns?
• Record (10 meetings): Hangzhou Greentown 7W | Draws 1 | Wuhan Three Towns 2W • Goals trend: 2.80 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Hangzhou Greentown 18 – 10 Wuhan Three Towns • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 60% | Win rates: Hangzhou Greentown 70% / Draw 10% / Wuhan Three Towns 20% • Historical edge: Hangzhou Greentown dominant — 7W from 10 meetings (70% win rate) • H2H vs Poisson: both agree — Hangzhou Greentown favoured. H2H win rate 70%, Poisson win probability 47% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 2.80 goals/game (60% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 3.30 (64% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 65% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Wuhan Three Towns in?
• Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-L • Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-D-L-L • Hangzhou Greentown home split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | CS 2 • Wuhan Three Towns away split: 0.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 2.40 | CS 0 • Form edge: Hangzhou Greentown lead by 0.80 PPG (1.40 vs 0.60) • xG vs form (Hangzhou Greentown): Poisson projects 1.84 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.40 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Wuhan Three Towns): Poisson xG of 1.46 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.40 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.3 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.30 (64% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: strong YES — form rates Hangzhou Greentown 6/10, Wuhan Three Towns 8/10; Poisson BTTS probability 65% — all signals aligned • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Hangzhou Greentown — Hangzhou Greentown at 47% Poisson win probability
What do the betting odds say about Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture