Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenyang Urban – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Qingdao Jonoon at 39%, yet in-form Shenyang Urban provide a compelling counter-argument — this Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenyang Urban fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 28 as Qingdao Jonoon welcome Shenyang Urban to Qingdao Youth Football Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 October 2026 at 11:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Qingdao Jonoon — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Jonoon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Qingdao Jonoon's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Qingdao Jonoon are significantly better at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Shenyang Urban have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Shenyang Urban, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Shenyang Urban have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Shenyang Urban's 1.10 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Qingdao Jonoon's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Qingdao Jonoon, 1 for Shenyang Urban and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 May 2026, ended 1–2 with Shenyang Urban winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Qingdao Jonoon in-play and half-time data (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Shenyang Urban in-play and half-time data (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Qingdao Jonoon 67% and Shenyang Urban 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 58% | Shenyang Urban 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.42 xG and Shenyang Urban 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.837 / defence 1.197 | Shenyang Urban attack 0.795 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.713 / away 1.404. Data: 55 Qingdao Jonoon games / 24 Shenyang Urban games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 39% | Draw 26% | Shenyang Urban 35%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Shenyang Urban 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Qingdao Jonoon are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Shenyang Urban (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Qingdao Jonoon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Qingdao Jonoon 60% | Shenyang Urban 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenyang Urban | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Qingdao Youth Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 39% | Draw 26% | Shenyang Urban 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Qingdao Jonoon 1.42 / Shenyang Urban 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.837 / def 1.197 | Shenyang Urban attack 0.795 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.713 / away 1.404 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Jonoon (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Shenyang Urban xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenyang Urban kick off?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenyang Urban is scheduled to kick off at 11:35 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
Where is Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenyang Urban being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenyang Urban part of?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenyang Urban is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenyang Urban?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Jonoon a 39% chance of winning, Shenyang Urban a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Jonoon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenyang Urban?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Qingdao Jonoon and Shenyang Urban will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenyang Urban have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Shenyang Urban?
Record (1 meetings): Qingdao Jonoon 0W | Draws 0 | Shenyang Urban 1W.
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Shenyang Urban in?
Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Shenyang Urban (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Qingdao Jonoon's attack rating (0.84) and Shenyang Urban's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shenyang Urban's attack versus Qingdao Jonoon's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Jonoon Win
39%
2.59
26%
3.81
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Total xG
2.75
1.34
Shenyang Urban xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
10%
9.83
9%
11.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.5 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.1 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.5 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenyang Urban?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Qingdao Jonoon and Shenyang Urban expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 1.34 for Shenyang Urban, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenyang Urban?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 24 outings, Qingdao Jonoon have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 6W 3D 15L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Qingdao Jonoon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shenyang Urban's form line: 7W 4D 13L from 24 games, 1.04 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-L. The sample for Shenyang Urban is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Qingdao Jonoon on 0.88 PPG, Shenyang Urban on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Qingdao Jonoon have posted 1.55 PPG from 11 outings (5W 2D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 0.88 PPG overall — Qingdao Jonoon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Shenyang Urban have gone 1W 3D 7L from 11 away games — 0.55 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.04 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shenyang Urban's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Qingdao Jonoon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Qingdao Jonoon are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Shenyang Urban are on 1.42 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Qingdao Jonoon have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 24 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Jonoon
Blended
Shenyang Urban
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Shenyang Urban in coming into this match?
Qingdao Jonoon have gone 6W 3D 15L in their last 24 games (0.88 PPG), while Shenyang Urban have gone 7W 4D 13L in their last 24 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Jonoon at home or Shenyang Urban away?
Qingdao Jonoon's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Jonoon at home: 1.55 PPG; Shenyang Urban away: 0.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Qingdao Jonoon and Shenyang Urban runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 20 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Qingdao Jonoon
0
Draws
1
Shenyang Urban
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Shenyang Urban?
From 1 meetings on record, Qingdao Jonoon have won 0, Shenyang Urban have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Jonoon and Shenyang Urban last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2026, when Shenyang Urban 2-1 Qingdao Jonoon.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Jonoon and Shenyang Urban?
Shenyang Urban have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Qingdao Jonoon see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Shenyang Urban are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Jonoon 54%, Shenyang Urban 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Qingdao Jonoon) and 54% (Shenyang Urban).
On the defensive side: Qingdao Jonoon have failed to score in 36% of games; Shenyang Urban in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Jonoon home games / Shenyang Urban away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Jonoon play Shenyang Urban?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent matches and 46% of Shenyang Urban's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenyang Urban usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent games and 54% of Shenyang Urban's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Qingdao Jonoon and Shenyang Urban tend to score early?
Qingdao Jonoon have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Shenyang Urban in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.