Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Beijing Guoan at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Beijing Guoan travel to Qingdao Youth Football Stadium to take on Qingdao Jonoon. The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 October 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Jonoon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Qingdao Jonoon are significantly better at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Beijing Guoan — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beijing Guoan away from home this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Beijing Guoan's 2.20 PPG return is 1.80 points per game ahead of Qingdao Jonoon's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Qingdao Jonoon register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Beijing Guoan in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Qingdao Jonoon, 3 for Beijing Guoan and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2026, ended 2–4 with Beijing Guoan winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Qingdao Jonoon trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Beijing Guoan trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Qingdao Jonoon 58% and Beijing Guoan 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 51% | Beijing Guoan 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.17 xG and Beijing Guoan 2.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.837 / defence 1.197 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.284 / defence 0.814. League average goals — home 1.713 / away 1.404. Beijing Guoan have an above-average attack strength of 1.284 — the away xG of 2.16 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 55 Qingdao Jonoon games / 55 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 20% | Draw 21% | Beijing Guoan 60%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 5.00 | Draw 4.76 | Beijing Guoan 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Beijing Guoan (60%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.32 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.17 / 2.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Beijing Guoan as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.32 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Qingdao Jonoon 60% | Beijing Guoan 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Qingdao Youth Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 20% | Draw 21% | Beijing Guoan 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 61% | xG Qingdao Jonoon 1.17 / Beijing Guoan 2.16 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.837 / def 1.197 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.284 / def 0.814 | league avg home 1.713 / away 1.404 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Expected Goals
2.16
Beijing Guoan xG
61%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
Where is Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Jonoon a 20% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 60% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Qingdao Jonoon and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Beijing Guoan?
Record (7 meetings): Qingdao Jonoon 2W | Draws 2 | Beijing Guoan 3W.
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Beijing Guoan in?
Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Beijing Guoan (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Qingdao Jonoon's attack rating (0.84) and Beijing Guoan's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Beijing Guoan's attack versus Qingdao Jonoon's defence, projects 2.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
20%
5.13
21%
4.81
60%
1.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
0 – 2
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Total xG
3.32
2.16
Beijing Guoan xG
5.13
20%
Home win
4.81
21%
Draw
1.67
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
12%
8.66
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
2%
44.42
19%
5.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 7.8 | 8.4 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 9.1 | 9.8 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Qingdao Jonoon and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 2.16 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Qingdao Jonoon come into this having played 55 games, going 11W 13D 31L for 0.84 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Qingdao Jonoon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Beijing Guoan sit at 1.80 PPG from 55 outings (28W 15D 12L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beijing Guoan carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.96 PPG clear of Qingdao Jonoon — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Qingdao Jonoon's home form reads 9W 8D 10L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.84 PPG overall — Qingdao Jonoon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Beijing Guoan have taken 1.67 points per game from 27 outings (12W 9D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Qingdao Jonoon are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 2.15 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beijing Guoan in 65%.
Last 55 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Jonoon
Blended
Beijing Guoan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Qingdao Jonoon have gone 11W 13D 31L in their last 55 games (0.84 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 28W 15D 12L in their last 55 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Jonoon at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Beijing Guoan's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Jonoon at home: 1.30 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 15 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Oct 2024, when Beijing Guoan won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Qingdao Jonoon's record when hosting Beijing Guoan specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Qingdao Jonoon
2
Draws
3
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Beijing Guoan?
From 7 meetings on record, Qingdao Jonoon have won 2, Beijing Guoan have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Jonoon and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Beijing Guoan 4-2 Qingdao Jonoon.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Jonoon and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Jonoon 56%, Beijing Guoan 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Qingdao Jonoon) and 63% (Beijing Guoan).
On the defensive side: Qingdao Jonoon have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Jonoon home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Jonoon play Beijing Guoan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Qingdao Jonoon's games and 59% of Beijing Guoan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent games and 63% of Beijing Guoan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Qingdao Jonoon and Beijing Guoan tend to score early?
Qingdao Jonoon have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Beijing Guoan in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.