Poisson model rates Qingdao Jonoon at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Beijing Guoan travel to Qingdao Youth Football Stadium to take on Qingdao Jonoon. The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 October 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Jonoon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Beijing Guoan — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beijing Guoan away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Qingdao Jonoon) versus 1.80 (Beijing Guoan). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Qingdao Jonoon register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Beijing Guoan in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Qingdao Jonoon, 3 for Beijing Guoan and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2026, ended 2–4 with Beijing Guoan winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Season Statistics
Qingdao Jonoon's full-season record stands at 6W 3D 8L from 17 games. They average 1.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game. Biggest win: 4-1 (H) / 1-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-4 (H) / 4-2 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 4 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 4 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 4 games this season. 2 clean sheets this season (2 at home, 0 away). Scored 2+ goals in 5 of 17 games (29%). Penalties this season: 1 scored / 0 missed from 1 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards per game, 0.12 reds per game.
Across 17 matches this season, Beijing Guoan have gone 7W 5D 5L. Attacking returns: 1.7 goals per game; defensive: 1.4 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 3-0 (H) / 0-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 2-4 (H) / 2-1 (A). Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 1 game this season. 6 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 3 away). Scored 2+ goals in 4 of 17 games (24%). Penalties this season: 3 scored / 1 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 4-4-2. Discipline: 1.5 yellow cards per game, 0.06 reds per game.
Beijing Guoan lead on clean sheets this season (6 vs 2). Penalty activity: Qingdao Jonoon 1/1 vs Beijing Guoan 3/4 this season.
Table Context
The standings have Beijing Guoan (7th, 21 pts) 7 places above Qingdao Jonoon (14th, 14 pts) — a 7-point gap in Super League.
At home this season, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 5W 2D 2L. Beijing Guoan have gone 3W 3D 2L on their travels.
In-Play Data
Qingdao Jonoon trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Beijing Guoan trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Qingdao Jonoon 57% and Beijing Guoan 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 49% | Beijing Guoan 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.68 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.091 / defence 0.933 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.086 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.361. Data: 47 Qingdao Jonoon games / 47 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 45% | Draw 24% | Beijing Guoan 32%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 2.22 | Draw 4.17 | Beijing Guoan 3.12. Qingdao Jonoon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Qingdao Jonoon as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Qingdao Jonoon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Qingdao Jonoon 60% | Beijing Guoan 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Qingdao Youth Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC • Managers: Qingdao Jonoon (Li Xiaopeng) | Beijing Guoan (Quique Setién) • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (7 meetings): Qingdao Jonoon 2W | Draws 2 | Beijing Guoan 3W • Goals trend: 4.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Qingdao Jonoon 11 – 17 Beijing Guoan • H2H markets: BTTS 71% | Over 2.5 57% | Win rates: Qingdao Jonoon 29% / Draw 29% / Beijing Guoan 43% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 45% / draw 24% / away 32% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 4.00 goals/game (57% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 3.06 (59% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 71%, Poisson BTTS probability 61% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
📈 Recent Form
• Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-D • Beijing Guoan (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-W-W • Qingdao Jonoon home split: 2.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | CS 3 • Beijing Guoan away split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | CS 4 • Form edge: minimal separation (Qingdao Jonoon 1.60 PPG vs Beijing Guoan 1.80 PPG) • xG vs form (Qingdao Jonoon): Poisson xG of 1.68 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.80 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Beijing Guoan): Poisson projects 1.38 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.70 — model applies a discount on visitor output; home side's defensive record is the key factor • Goals margin: form ~2.3 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.06 (59% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: strong YES — form rates Qingdao Jonoon 6/10, Beijing Guoan 6/10; Poisson BTTS probability 61% — all signals aligned
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 45% | Draw 24% | Beijing Guoan 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Qingdao Jonoon 1.68 / Beijing Guoan 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.091 / def 0.933 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.086 / def 0.896 | league avg home 1.721 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Jonoon (45%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Beijing Guoan xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
Where is Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Jonoon a 45% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 32% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Jonoon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Qingdao Jonoon and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Beijing Guoan?
• Record (7 meetings): Qingdao Jonoon 2W | Draws 2 | Beijing Guoan 3W • Goals trend: 4.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Qingdao Jonoon 11 – 17 Beijing Guoan • H2H markets: BTTS 71% | Over 2.5 57% | Win rates: Qingdao Jonoon 29% / Draw 29% / Beijing Guoan 43% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 45% / draw 24% / away 32% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 4.00 goals/game (57% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 3.06 (59% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 71%, Poisson BTTS probability 61% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Beijing Guoan in?
• Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-D • Beijing Guoan (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-W-W • Qingdao Jonoon home split: 2.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | CS 3 • Beijing Guoan away split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | CS 4 • Form edge: minimal separation (Qingdao Jonoon 1.60 PPG vs Beijing Guoan 1.80 PPG) • xG vs form (Qingdao Jonoon): Poisson xG of 1.68 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.80 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Beijing Guoan): Poisson projects 1.38 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.70 — model applies a discount on visitor output; home side's defensive record is the key factor • Goals margin: form ~2.3 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.06 (59% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: strong YES — form rates Qingdao Jonoon 6/10, Beijing Guoan 6/10; Poisson BTTS probability 61% — all signals aligned
What do the betting odds say about Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture