Sichuan Jiuniu 2-2 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sichuan Jiuniu at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Henan Jianye make the trip to Shenzhen Stadium to face Sichuan Jiuniu in Super League, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Friday 9 October 2026 at 11:35 UTC.
Current Form
Sichuan Jiuniu's overall Super League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sichuan Jiuniu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sichuan Jiuniu have posted 4W 2D 4L at Shenzhen Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Henan Jianye (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D D D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Henan Jianye's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Sichuan Jiuniu against 1.20 for Henan Jianye. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sichuan Jiuniu lead 1W to 3W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2026, ended 0–1 with Henan Jianye winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Sichuan Jiuniu goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Henan Jianye goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sichuan Jiuniu 57% and Henan Jianye 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sichuan Jiuniu 61% | Henan Jianye 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 1.79 xG and Henan Jianye 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.956 / defence 0.945 | Henan Jianye attack 1.036 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.352. Data: 56 Sichuan Jiuniu games / 56 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 47% | Draw 25% | Henan Jianye 27%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Henan Jianye 3.70. Sichuan Jiuniu hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sichuan Jiuniu are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sichuan Jiuniu if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sichuan Jiuniu 50% | Henan Jianye 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Shenzhen Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 9 Oct 2026, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 47% | Draw 25% | Henan Jianye 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Sichuan Jiuniu 1.79 / Henan Jianye 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.956 / def 0.945 | Henan Jianye attack 1.036 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.352 • Poisson stance: Sichuan Jiuniu (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Henan Jianye xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 11:35 on Friday 9 October 2026 at Shenzhen Stadium.
What was the final score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye?
Sichuan Jiuniu 2 - 2 Henan Jianye.
Where is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Shenzhen Stadium.
What competition is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye part of?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Sichuan Jiuniu a 47% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sichuan Jiuniu the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Sichuan Jiuniu and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Henan Jianye?
Record (5 meetings): Sichuan Jiuniu 1W | Draws 1 | Henan Jianye 3W.
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Henan Jianye in?
Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Henan Jianye (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sichuan Jiuniu's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Henan Jianye's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.79. Flip it around — Henan Jianye's attack (1.04x) against Sichuan Jiuniu's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sichuan Jiuniu Win
47%
2.11
25%
3.97
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Total xG
3.12
1.32
Henan Jianye xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
27%
3.76
17%
6.01
Win to Nil
13%
7.92
5%
21.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.5 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Sichuan Jiuniu and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Sichuan Jiuniu and 1.32 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sichuan Jiuniu's recent record stands at 16W 7D 33L from 56 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Sichuan Jiuniu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Henan Jianye, meanwhile, have gone 18W 16D 22L across 56 games — 1.25 PPG, with L-D-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.98 PPG for Sichuan Jiuniu against 1.25 for Henan Jianye. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sichuan Jiuniu have managed 12W 4D 12L from 28 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.98 PPG overall — Sichuan Jiuniu are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Henan Jianye's away record stands at 8W 7D 13L across 28 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sichuan Jiuniu are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 1.52 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Henan Jianye in 68%.
Last 56 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sichuan Jiuniu
Blended
Henan Jianye
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 16W 7D 33L in their last 56 games (0.98 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 18W 16D 22L in their last 56 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sichuan Jiuniu at home or Henan Jianye away?
Sichuan Jiuniu's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sichuan Jiuniu at home: 1.43 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 9 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Henan Jianye won 4-1 on 8 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Sichuan Jiuniu
2
Draws
3
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Henan Jianye?
From 6 meetings on record, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 1, Henan Jianye have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sichuan Jiuniu and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 9 October 2026, when Sichuan Jiuniu 2-2 Henan Jianye.
Who has won more matches between Sichuan Jiuniu and Henan Jianye?
Henan Jianye have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sichuan Jiuniu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 68% for Sichuan Jiuniu, 71% for Henan Jianye — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Sichuan Jiuniu and 64% for Henan Jianye. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sichuan Jiuniu home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sichuan Jiuniu play Henan Jianye?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Sichuan Jiuniu's games and 71% of Henan Jianye's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Sichuan Jiuniu's matches and 64% of Henan Jianye's.
Do Sichuan Jiuniu and Henan Jianye tend to score early?
Sichuan Jiuniu have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Henan Jianye in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sichuan Jiuniu and Henan Jianye share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sichuan Jiuniu and Henan Jianye finished level at 2-2 at Shenzhen Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sichuan Jiuniu 1.79 xG and Henan Jianye 1.32 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.96 / defence 0.94 against Henan Jianye attack 1.04 / defence 1.10, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sichuan Jiuniu 47% | Draw 25% | Henan Jianye 27%, with Sichuan Jiuniu to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sichuan Jiuniu 61%, Henan Jianye 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sichuan Jiuniu 0.98 PPG, Henan Jianye 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.