Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model rates Sichuan Jiuniu at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Henan Jianye make the trip to to face Sichuan Jiuniu in Super League, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Friday 9 October 2026 at 11:35 UTC.

Current Form

Sichuan Jiuniu's overall Super League record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sichuan Jiuniu, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Sichuan Jiuniu have posted 4W 2D 4L at — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

Henan Jianye (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D L D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Henan Jianye's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Sichuan Jiuniu against 1.00 for Henan Jianye. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sichuan Jiuniu lead 1W to 3W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2026, ended 0–1 with Henan Jianye winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Sichuan Jiuniu goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

Henan Jianye goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sichuan Jiuniu 56% and Henan Jianye 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sichuan Jiuniu 61% | Henan Jianye 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 1.89 xG and Henan Jianye 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.955 / defence 0.914 | Henan Jianye attack 1.047 / defence 1.154. League average goals — home 1.713 / away 1.404. Data: 55 Sichuan Jiuniu games / 54 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 50% | Draw 23% | Henan Jianye 27%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 2.00 | Draw 4.35 | Henan Jianye 3.70. Sichuan Jiuniu hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.89 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Sichuan Jiuniu are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sichuan Jiuniu if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 3.23 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sichuan Jiuniu 50% | Henan Jianye 80% BTTS from recent games.

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