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Poisson model rates Sichuan Jiuniu at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Henan Jianye make the trip to to face Sichuan Jiuniu in Super League, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Friday 9 October 2026 at 11:35 UTC.

Current Form

Sichuan Jiuniu's overall Super League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sichuan Jiuniu, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Sichuan Jiuniu have posted 5W 1D 4L at — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Sichuan Jiuniu are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.

Henan Jianye (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Henan Jianye's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Sichuan Jiuniu against 1.30 for Henan Jianye. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sichuan Jiuniu have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Henan Jianye in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

League Table

Sichuan Jiuniu hold the table advantage, sitting 9th with 20 points — 4 positions and 5 points clear of Henan Jianye in 13th.

At home this season, Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 5W 1D 4L. On the road, Henan Jianye's record stands at 3W 2D 4L this term.

Trading Data

Sichuan Jiuniu goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Henan Jianye goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sichuan Jiuniu 57% and Henan Jianye 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sichuan Jiuniu 64% | Henan Jianye 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 1.69 xG and Henan Jianye 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.099 / defence 1.055 | Henan Jianye attack 0.896 / defence 0.891. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.361. Data: 48 Sichuan Jiuniu games / 47 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 47% | Draw 24% | Henan Jianye 29%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | Henan Jianye 3.45. Sichuan Jiuniu hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Sichuan Jiuniu are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sichuan Jiuniu if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sichuan Jiuniu 60% | Henan Jianye 70% BTTS from recent games.

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