Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson rates Shandong Luneng at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng encounter.

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Full Analysis

Chongqing Longxing Football Stadium plays host to Chongqing Tongliang Long versus Shandong Luneng in Super League, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Sunday 11 October 2026 at 11:35 UTC.

Current Form

Chongqing Tongliang Long's overall Super League record this term: 0W 4D 6L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chongqing Tongliang Long, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Chongqing Tongliang Long at Chongqing Longxing Football Stadium this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Chongqing Tongliang Long are significantly better at Chongqing Longxing Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Shandong Luneng (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shandong Luneng, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Super League this season, Shandong Luneng have posted 4W 0D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On a straight form reading, Shandong Luneng are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Chongqing Tongliang Long have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Shandong Luneng in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Chongqing Tongliang Long lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2026, ended 1–3 with Shandong Luneng winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Chongqing Tongliang Long half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).

Shandong Luneng half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chongqing Tongliang Long 54% and Shandong Luneng 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chongqing Tongliang Long 35% | Shandong Luneng 69%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.29 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.723 / defence 1.112 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.027 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.710 / away 1.377. Chongqing Tongliang Long's attack strength of 0.723 is below the league average — the 1.29 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 26 Chongqing Tongliang Long games / 56 Shandong Luneng games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Chongqing Tongliang Long 30% | Draw 27% | Shandong Luneng 43%. Fair-value odds: Chongqing Tongliang Long 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | Shandong Luneng 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Shandong Luneng at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shandong Luneng if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chongqing Tongliang Long 60% | Shandong Luneng 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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