Poisson model rates Chongqing Tongliang Long at 41%, yet in-form Shandong Luneng provide a compelling counter-argument — this Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tongliang Long Stadium plays host to Chongqing Tongliang Long versus Shandong Luneng in Super League, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Sunday 11 October 2026 at 11:35 UTC.
Current Form
Chongqing Tongliang Long's overall Super League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chongqing Tongliang Long, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chongqing Tongliang Long at Tongliang Long Stadium this season: 4W 4D 1L from 9 home games — 1.78 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.78 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Chongqing Tongliang Long are significantly better at Tongliang Long Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Shandong Luneng (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Shandong Luneng, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Shandong Luneng have posted 5W 0D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Shandong Luneng are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Statistical Overview
Chongqing Tongliang Long's cumulative Super League record this campaign: 7W 7D 4L from 18 matches. They average 1.2 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per game. Biggest win: 2-0 (H) / 1-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 2-3 (H) / 3-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 4 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. They have failed to score in 3 games this season. 7 clean sheets this season (4 at home, 3 away). Scored 2+ goals in 1 of 18 games (6%). Penalties this season: 0 scored / 1 missed from 1 awarded. Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards per game, 0.11 reds per game.
Shandong Luneng's full-season record stands at 9W 3D 6L from 18 games. They average 1.9 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game. Biggest win: 4-1 (H) / 1-5 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-2 (H) / 4-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 3 games this season. 2 clean sheets this season (1 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 6 of 18 games (33%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 0 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 3-4-2-1. Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards per game, 0.11 reds per game.
Shandong Luneng have been the more prolific side this season at 1.90 goals per game compared to 1.20 for the hosts. Chongqing Tongliang Long have the superior defensive numbers, conceding 1.10 per game against Shandong Luneng's 1.70. Chongqing Tongliang Long lead on clean sheets this season (7 vs 2). Shandong Luneng score 2+ goals far more often (33% vs 6%) — a meaningful difference for goal-line markets. Penalty activity: Chongqing Tongliang Long 0/1 vs Shandong Luneng 4/4 this season.
Current Standings
In the Super League table, Chongqing Tongliang Long sit 2nd on 28 points, 2 places and 4 points ahead of Shandong Luneng in 4th.
Chongqing Tongliang Long's home record this season stands at 4W 4D 1L. Away from home, Shandong Luneng have posted 4W 0D 5L in Super League this season. Chongqing Tongliang Long: Promotion - AFC Champions League 2.
Trading
Chongqing Tongliang Long half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Shandong Luneng half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chongqing Tongliang Long 56% and Shandong Luneng 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chongqing Tongliang Long 39% | Shandong Luneng 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.48 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.808 / defence 0.912 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.072 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.361. Data: 18 Chongqing Tongliang Long games / 48 Shandong Luneng games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chongqing Tongliang Long 41% | Draw 25% | Shandong Luneng 34%. Fair-value odds: Chongqing Tongliang Long 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | Shandong Luneng 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chongqing Tongliang Long at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Shandong Luneng (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chongqing Tongliang Long if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chongqing Tongliang Long 56% | Shandong Luneng 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Tongliang Long Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Oct 2026, 11:35 UTC • Managers: Chongqing Tongliang Long (Salvador Suay) | Shandong Luneng (Choi Kang-Hee) • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset
📈 Recent Form
• Chongqing Tongliang Long (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-D • Shandong Luneng (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-L-W • Chongqing Tongliang Long home split: 1.78 PPG from 9 | GF 1.44 / GA 1.00 | CS 4 • Shandong Luneng away split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | CS 1 • Form edge: Shandong Luneng lead by 0.70 PPG (1.70 vs 1.00) • xG vs form (Chongqing Tongliang Long): Poisson xG of 1.48 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.44 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Shandong Luneng): Poisson projects 1.33 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.70 — model applies a discount on visitor output; home side's defensive record is the key factor • Goals margin: form ~2.3 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.81 (53% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~58% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 57% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours Shandong Luneng on PPG but Poisson rates Chongqing Tongliang Long higher (41% vs 34% for Shandong Luneng) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chongqing Tongliang Long 41% | Draw 25% | Shandong Luneng 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.48 / Shandong Luneng 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.808 / def 0.912 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.072 / def 1.066 | league avg home 1.721 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Chongqing Tongliang Long (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Shandong Luneng xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng is scheduled to kick off at 11:35 on Sunday 11 October 2026 at Tongliang Long Stadium.
Where is Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Tongliang Long Stadium.
What competition is Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Chongqing Tongliang Long a 41% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Chongqing Tongliang Long the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Chongqing Tongliang Long and Shandong Luneng will score (BTTS).
Will Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chongqing Tongliang Long and Shandong Luneng?
• No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset
What form are Chongqing Tongliang Long and Shandong Luneng in?
• Chongqing Tongliang Long (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-D • Shandong Luneng (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-L-W • Chongqing Tongliang Long home split: 1.78 PPG from 9 | GF 1.44 / GA 1.00 | CS 4 • Shandong Luneng away split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | CS 1 • Form edge: Shandong Luneng lead by 0.70 PPG (1.70 vs 1.00) • xG vs form (Chongqing Tongliang Long): Poisson xG of 1.48 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.44 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Shandong Luneng): Poisson projects 1.33 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.70 — model applies a discount on visitor output; home side's defensive record is the key factor • Goals margin: form ~2.3 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.81 (53% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~58% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 57% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours Shandong Luneng on PPG but Poisson rates Chongqing Tongliang Long higher (41% vs 34% for Shandong Luneng) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
What do the betting odds say about Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture