📋

Poisson model rates Shenyang Urban at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shenyang Urban vs Sichuan Jiuniu fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Shenyang Urban and Sichuan Jiuniu meet at Olympic Sports Centre Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 11:00 UTC.

Current Form

Shenyang Urban's overall Super League record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shenyang Urban, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Olympic Sports Centre Stadium, Shenyang Urban have gone 5W 0D 4L this season (9 games, 1.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Sichuan Jiuniu (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sichuan Jiuniu, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H History

Sichuan Jiuniu hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 6 wins from 8 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 8 previous contests averaged 1.6 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2026, ended 0–1 with Sichuan Jiuniu winning.

It is worth noting that Sichuan Jiuniu have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Season Stats

The hosts have accumulated 6W 2D 9L from their 17 Super League appearances this term. They average 1.4 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game. Biggest win: 3-0 (H) / 0-5 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-5 (H) / 4-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Worst losing run: 6 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 6 games this season. 2 clean sheets this season (1 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 4 of 17 games (24%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 0 missed from 2 awarded. Most used formation: 4-1-4-1. Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards per game, 0.12 reds per game.

Sichuan Jiuniu's full-season record stands at 6W 2D 10L from 18 games. They average 1.4 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game. Biggest win: 5-2 (H) / 1-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 3-4 (H) / 5-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 5 games this season. 3 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 0 away). Scored 2+ goals in 4 of 18 games (22%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 0 missed from 2 awarded. Most used formation: 4-1-4-1. Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards per game, 0.17 reds per game.

Sichuan Jiuniu lead on clean sheets this season (3 vs 2). Penalty activity: Shenyang Urban 2/2 vs Sichuan Jiuniu 2/2 this season.

League Table

Shenyang Urban hold the table advantage, sitting 8th with 20 points — 1 position and 0 points clear of Sichuan Jiuniu in 9th.

At home this season, Shenyang Urban have gone 5W 0D 4L. On the road, Sichuan Jiuniu's record stands at 1W 1D 6L this term.

Trading

Shenyang Urban half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 35% of games.

Sichuan Jiuniu half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shenyang Urban 53% versus Sichuan Jiuniu 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shenyang Urban 71% | Sichuan Jiuniu 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Shenyang Urban 1.82 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenyang Urban attack 0.953 / defence 1.267 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.707 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.361. Data: 17 Shenyang Urban games / 48 Sichuan Jiuniu games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Shenyang Urban 51% | Draw 23% | Sichuan Jiuniu 26%. Fair-value odds: Shenyang Urban 1.96 | Draw 4.35 | Sichuan Jiuniu 3.85. Shenyang Urban hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Shenyang Urban at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shenyang Urban if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 3.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Shenyang Urban 67% | Sichuan Jiuniu 50% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights