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Poisson rates Beijing Guoan at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beijing Guoan vs Sichuan Jiuniu encounter.

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Analysis

Sichuan Jiuniu make the trip to to face Beijing Guoan in Super League, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Friday 7 August 2026 at 11:35 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Beijing Guoan have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at , Beijing Guoan have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Sichuan Jiuniu (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sichuan Jiuniu, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Beijing Guoan's favour (1.80 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Beijing Guoan 2W, Sichuan Jiuniu 3W, 1D.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2026, ended 1–0 with Beijing Guoan winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Statistical Overview

Beijing Guoan's cumulative Super League record this campaign: 7W 5D 5L from 17 matches. Attacking returns: 1.7 goals per game; defensive: 1.4 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 3-0 (H) / 0-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 2-4 (H) / 2-1 (A). Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 1 game this season. 6 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 3 away). Scored 2+ goals in 4 of 17 games (24%). Penalties this season: 3 scored / 1 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 4-4-2. Discipline: 1.5 yellow cards per game, 0.06 reds per game.

League Table

Beijing Guoan hold the table advantage, sitting 7th with 21 points — 2 positions and 1 point clear of Sichuan Jiuniu in 9th.

On home turf, Beijing Guoan's Super League record reads 4W 2D 3L this term. Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 1W 1D 6L on their travels.

Trading & In-Play

Beijing Guoan — key trading statistics (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.

Sichuan Jiuniu — key trading statistics (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Beijing Guoan 64% and Sichuan Jiuniu 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 66% | Sichuan Jiuniu 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 2.05 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.073 / defence 0.956 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.707 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.361. Data: 47 Beijing Guoan games / 48 Sichuan Jiuniu games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 64% | Draw 20% | Sichuan Jiuniu 16%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 1.56 | Draw 5.00 | Sichuan Jiuniu 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Beijing Guoan (64%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Beijing Guoan as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Beijing Guoan 70% | Sichuan Jiuniu 50% BTTS from recent games.

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