Qingdao Youth Island 0-0 Chongqing Tongliang Long – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Qingdao Youth Island at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Qingdao Youth Island vs Chongqing Tongliang Long encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Chongqing Tongliang Long travel to Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center to take on Qingdao Youth Island. The game is scheduled for Friday 14 August 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Qingdao Youth Island — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: L D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Youth Island, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Qingdao Youth Island's home record at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center: 3W 7D 0L from 10 Super League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, Chongqing Tongliang Long have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Chongqing Tongliang Long, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chongqing Tongliang Long's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Qingdao Youth Island are in the better shape of the two on current Super League data — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Qingdao Youth Island, 0 for Chongqing Tongliang Long and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Qingdao Youth Island in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games).
Chongqing Tongliang Long in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Youth Island 64% versus Chongqing Tongliang Long 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Qingdao Youth Island 36% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Youth Island 1.48 xG and Chongqing Tongliang Long 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.914 / defence 0.785 | Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.670 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.701 / away 1.282. Qingdao Youth Island's defence rating of 0.785 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 Qingdao Youth Island games / 22 Chongqing Tongliang Long games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 57% | Draw 26% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 17%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Youth Island 1.75 | Draw 3.85 | Chongqing Tongliang Long 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Qingdao Youth Island (57%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Qingdao Youth Island are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Qingdao Youth Island 80% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Youth Island vs Chongqing Tongliang Long | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center • Kick-off: Friday 14 Aug 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 57% | Draw 26% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 38% | xG Qingdao Youth Island 1.48 / Chongqing Tongliang Long 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.914 / def 0.785 | Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.670 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.701 / away 1.282 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Youth Island (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
38%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Youth Island vs Chongqing Tongliang Long kick off?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Chongqing Tongliang Long kicked off at 12:00 on Friday 14 August 2026 at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center.
What was the final score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Qingdao Youth Island 0 - 0 Chongqing Tongliang Long.
Where is Qingdao Youth Island vs Chongqing Tongliang Long being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center.
What competition is Qingdao Youth Island vs Chongqing Tongliang Long part of?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Chongqing Tongliang Long is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Youth Island vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Youth Island a 57% chance of winning, Chongqing Tongliang Long a 17% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Youth Island the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Qingdao Youth Island and Chongqing Tongliang Long will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Youth Island vs Chongqing Tongliang Long have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Record (1 meetings): Qingdao Youth Island 0W | Draws 1 | Chongqing Tongliang Long 0W.
What form are Qingdao Youth Island and Chongqing Tongliang Long in?
Qingdao Youth Island (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. Chongqing Tongliang Long (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Qingdao Youth Island's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Chongqing Tongliang Long's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. The same calculation in reverse, Chongqing Tongliang Long's attack versus Qingdao Youth Island's defence, projects 0.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Youth Island Win
57%
1.77
26%
3.79
17%
5.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Total xG
2.16
0.68
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
1.77
57%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
5.90
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
23%
4.39
Win to Nil
29%
3.47
4%
25.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 7.8 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.2 | 11.6 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 8.6 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Youth Island vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Qingdao Youth Island and Chongqing Tongliang Long expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Qingdao Youth Island and 0.68 for Chongqing Tongliang Long, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Youth Island vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 22 outings, Qingdao Youth Island have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 7W 11D 4L record — L-D-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Qingdao Youth Island is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chongqing Tongliang Long's form line: 7W 8D 7L from 22 games, 1.32 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-L. The sample for Chongqing Tongliang Long is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Qingdao Youth Island on 1.45 PPG, Chongqing Tongliang Long on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Qingdao Youth Island have posted 1.73 PPG from 11 outings (4W 7D 0L).
On the road, Chongqing Tongliang Long have gone 3W 3D 5L from 11 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Qingdao Youth Island come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Qingdao Youth Island are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Chongqing Tongliang Long are on 1.14 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Qingdao Youth Island have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 22 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Youth Island
Blended
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Youth Island and Chongqing Tongliang Long in coming into this match?
Qingdao Youth Island have gone 7W 11D 4L in their last 22 games (1.45 PPG), while Chongqing Tongliang Long have gone 7W 8D 7L in their last 22 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Youth Island at home or Chongqing Tongliang Long away?
Qingdao Youth Island's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Youth Island at home: 1.73 PPG; Chongqing Tongliang Long away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Qingdao Youth Island or Chongqing Tongliang Long been keeping clean sheets recently?
Qingdao Youth Island have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Chongqing Tongliang Long in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Qingdao Youth Island and Chongqing Tongliang Long runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Qingdao Youth Island
2
Draws
0
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and Chongqing Tongliang Long?
From 2 meetings on record, Qingdao Youth Island have won 0, Chongqing Tongliang Long have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Youth Island and Chongqing Tongliang Long last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when Qingdao Youth Island 0-0 Chongqing Tongliang Long.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Qingdao Youth Island are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Chongqing Tongliang Long see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Youth Island 73%, Chongqing Tongliang Long 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 27% for Qingdao Youth Island and 36% for Chongqing Tongliang Long.
On the defensive side: Chongqing Tongliang Long in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Youth Island home games / Chongqing Tongliang Long away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Youth Island play Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Qingdao Youth Island's games and 46% of Chongqing Tongliang Long's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Qingdao Youth Island vs Chongqing Tongliang Long usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Qingdao Youth Island's recent games and 36% of Chongqing Tongliang Long's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Qingdao Youth Island and Chongqing Tongliang Long tend to score early?
Qingdao Youth Island have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Chongqing Tongliang Long in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Qingdao Youth Island's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center, Regular Season - 23, as Qingdao Youth Island and Chongqing Tongliang Long drew 0-0 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Youth Island 1.48 xG and Chongqing Tongliang Long 0.68 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Qingdao Youth Island fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.91 / defence 0.79 against Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.67 / defence 0.95, drawn from 52/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Youth Island 57% | Draw 26% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 17%, with Qingdao Youth Island to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Youth Island 36%, Chongqing Tongliang Long 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Chongqing Tongliang Long's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Qingdao Youth Island 1.45 PPG, Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line. Chongqing Tongliang Long (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.