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Poisson rates Qingdao Youth Island at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Qingdao Youth Island vs Chongqing Tongliang Long encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Chongqing Tongliang Long travel to Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center to take on Qingdao Youth Island. The game is scheduled for Friday 14 August 2026, 12:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Qingdao Youth Island — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Youth Island, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Qingdao Youth Island's home record at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center: 4W 6D 0L from 10 Super League appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all Super League games this season, Chongqing Tongliang Long have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chongqing Tongliang Long, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Chongqing Tongliang Long's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 3L across 9 road games this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Qingdao Youth Island are in the better shape of the two on current Super League data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

Key Season Stats

On the season-wide numbers, Qingdao Youth Island show 5W 9D 4L from 18 outings in Super League. They average 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game. Biggest win: 3-1 (H) / 2-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: – (H) / 5-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 7 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 4 games this season. 3 clean sheets this season (2 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 3 of 18 games (17%). Penalties this season: 3 scored / 2 missed from 5 awarded. Most used formation: 4-4-1-1. Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards per game, 0.11 reds per game.

Table Standings

In the Super League table, Chongqing Tongliang Long sit 2nd on 28 points, 4 places and 4 points ahead of Qingdao Youth Island in 6th.

Qingdao Youth Island's home record this season stands at 3W 6D 0L. On the road, Chongqing Tongliang Long's record stands at 3W 3D 3L this term. Chongqing Tongliang Long: Promotion - AFC Champions League 2.

Trading Patterns

Qingdao Youth Island in-play and half-time data (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).

Chongqing Tongliang Long in-play and half-time data (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Qingdao Youth Island 72% and Chongqing Tongliang Long 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Youth Island 44% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 39%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Youth Island 1.44 xG and Chongqing Tongliang Long 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.923 / defence 0.835 | Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.787 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.361. Data: 48 Qingdao Youth Island games / 18 Chongqing Tongliang Long games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 50% | Draw 27% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 23%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Youth Island 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Chongqing Tongliang Long 4.35. Qingdao Youth Island hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Qingdao Youth Island are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Qingdao Youth Island offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Qingdao Youth Island 70% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 56% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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