Tianjin Teda 2-4 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Beijing Guoan travel to Tianjin Olympic Sports Center Stadium to take on Tianjin Teda. The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 August 2026, 11:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Tianjin Teda stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tianjin Teda's home record at Tianjin Olympic Sports Center Stadium: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Beijing Guoan — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beijing Guoan's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Beijing Guoan are 0.50 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Tianjin Teda register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Beijing Guoan in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Beijing Guoan have the better historical record — 4 wins from 9 previous contests against 1 for Tianjin Teda.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 4–2 with Tianjin Teda winning.
It is worth noting that Beijing Guoan have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Tianjin Teda trading profile (51 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Beijing Guoan trading profile (51 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 55% versus Beijing Guoan 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 53% | Beijing Guoan 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.55 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.978 / defence 1.033 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.163 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.693 / away 1.290. Data: 51 Tianjin Teda games / 51 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 38% | Draw 24% | Beijing Guoan 38%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.63 | Draw 4.17 | Beijing Guoan 2.63. The draw (24%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 24% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 3.10 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Tianjin Teda 70% | Beijing Guoan 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Tianjin Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Aug 2026, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 38% | Draw 24% | Beijing Guoan 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.55 / Beijing Guoan 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.978 / def 1.033 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.163 / def 0.937 | league avg home 1.693 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Draw (24%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Beijing Guoan xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 11:35 on Saturday 15 August 2026 at Tianjin Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan?
Tianjin Teda 2 - 4 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Tianjin Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 38% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 38% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan?
Record (9 meetings): Tianjin Teda 1W | Draws 4 | Beijing Guoan 4W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Beijing Guoan (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Tianjin Teda's attack rating (0.98) and Beijing Guoan's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Beijing Guoan's attack versus Tianjin Teda's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
38%
2.62
24%
4.19
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
3.10
1.55
Beijing Guoan xG
2.62
38%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
21%
4.71
21%
4.72
Win to Nil
8%
12.35
8%
12.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.0 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.8 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.4 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.55 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Tianjin Teda's recent record stands at 19W 14D 18L from 51 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beijing Guoan, meanwhile, have gone 26W 13D 12L across 51 games — 1.78 PPG, with W-D-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Tianjin Teda on 1.39 PPG, Beijing Guoan on 1.78. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Tianjin Teda have managed 11W 6D 7L from 24 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Beijing Guoan's away record stands at 10W 8D 6L across 24 trips, a 1.58 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 2.10 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beijing Guoan in 65%.
Last 51 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Blended
Beijing Guoan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 19W 14D 18L in their last 51 games (1.39 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 26W 13D 12L in their last 51 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Tianjin Teda's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.62 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Tianjin Teda's record when hosting Beijing Guoan specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Tianjin Teda
4
Draws
5
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan?
From 10 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 1, Beijing Guoan have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Tianjin Teda 2-4 Beijing Guoan.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 50%, Beijing Guoan 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Tianjin Teda) and 62% (Beijing Guoan). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Beijing Guoan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Tianjin Teda's recent matches and 58% of Beijing Guoan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Tianjin Teda's matches and 62% of Beijing Guoan's.
Do Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Beijing Guoan in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beijing Guoan cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Tianjin Teda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Tianjin Teda 2-4 at Tianjin Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.55 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.55 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Beijing Guoan outscored their 1.55 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.98 / defence 1.03 against Beijing Guoan attack 1.16 / defence 0.94, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 38% | Draw 24% | Beijing Guoan 38%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Beijing Guoan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 53%, Beijing Guoan 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tianjin Teda 1.39 PPG, Beijing Guoan 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beijing Guoan win broke the near-deadlock. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.