Poisson rates Beijing Guoan at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Beijing Guoan travel to Olympic Sports Center Stadium to take on Tianjin Teda. The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 August 2026, 11:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Tianjin Teda stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tianjin Teda's home record at Olympic Sports Center Stadium: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Beijing Guoan — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beijing Guoan's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Beijing Guoan are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Tianjin Teda register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Beijing Guoan in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Tianjin Teda, 4 for Beijing Guoan and 4 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 4–2 with Tianjin Teda winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Season Statistics
Tianjin Teda's full-season record stands at 4W 6D 7L from 17 games. Attacking returns: 1.3 goals per game; defensive: 1.3 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 3-0 (H) / 0-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 2-3 (H) / 3-0 (A). Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 4 games this season. 4 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 3 of 17 games (18%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 1 missed from 5 awarded. Most used formation: 5-4-1. Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards per game, 0.12 reds per game.
The visitors have accumulated 7W 5D 5L from their 17 Super League appearances this term. Attacking returns: 1.7 goals per game; defensive: 1.4 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 3-0 (H) / 0-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 2-4 (H) / 2-1 (A). Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 1 game this season. 6 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 3 away). Scored 2+ goals in 4 of 17 games (24%). Penalties this season: 3 scored / 1 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 4-4-2. Discipline: 1.5 yellow cards per game, 0.06 reds per game.
Beijing Guoan have been the more prolific side this season at 1.70 goals per game compared to 1.30 for the hosts. Beijing Guoan lead on clean sheets this season (6 vs 4). Penalty activity: Tianjin Teda 4/5 vs Beijing Guoan 3/4 this season.
Standings Snapshot
Beijing Guoan hold the table advantage, sitting 7th with 21 points — 8 positions and 13 points clear of Tianjin Teda in 15th.
At home this season, Tianjin Teda have gone 2W 3D 4L. Beijing Guoan have gone 3W 3D 2L on their travels. Tianjin Teda: Relegation - League One.
In-Play Data
Tianjin Teda trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Beijing Guoan trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 55% versus Beijing Guoan 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 53% | Beijing Guoan 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.40 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.911 / defence 0.965 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.086 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.361. Data: 47 Tianjin Teda games / 47 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 37% | Draw 25% | Beijing Guoan 38%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.70 | Draw 4.00 | Beijing Guoan 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beijing Guoan at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Tianjin Teda 70% | Beijing Guoan 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Aug 2026, 11:35 UTC • Managers: Tianjin Teda (Yu Genwei) | Beijing Guoan (Quique Setién) • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (10 meetings): Tianjin Teda 2W | Draws 4 | Beijing Guoan 4W • Goals trend: 2.70 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Tianjin Teda 13 – 14 Beijing Guoan • H2H markets: BTTS 60% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Tianjin Teda 20% / Draw 40% / Beijing Guoan 40% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H vs Poisson: both agree — Beijing Guoan favoured. H2H win rate 40%, Poisson win probability 38% • Goals: H2H average 2.70/game (50% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.83 (54% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 60%, Poisson probability 57% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Tianjin Teda (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-W • Beijing Guoan (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-W-W • Tianjin Teda home split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | CS 3 • Beijing Guoan away split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | CS 4 • Form edge: Beijing Guoan lead by 0.50 PPG (1.80 vs 1.30) • xG vs form (Tianjin Teda): Poisson xG of 1.40 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.30 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Beijing Guoan): Poisson projects 1.43 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.70 — model applies a discount on visitor output; home side's defensive record is the key factor • Goals margin: form ~2.2 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.83 (54% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: strong YES — form rates Tianjin Teda 7/10, Beijing Guoan 6/10; Poisson BTTS probability 57% — all signals aligned • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Beijing Guoan — Beijing Guoan at 38% Poisson win probability
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 37% | Draw 25% | Beijing Guoan 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.40 / Beijing Guoan 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.911 / def 0.965 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.086 / def 0.896 | league avg home 1.721 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Beijing Guoan xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan is scheduled to kick off at 11:35 on Saturday 15 August 2026 at Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 37% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan?
• Record (10 meetings): Tianjin Teda 2W | Draws 4 | Beijing Guoan 4W • Goals trend: 2.70 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Tianjin Teda 13 – 14 Beijing Guoan • H2H markets: BTTS 60% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Tianjin Teda 20% / Draw 40% / Beijing Guoan 40% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H vs Poisson: both agree — Beijing Guoan favoured. H2H win rate 40%, Poisson win probability 38% • Goals: H2H average 2.70/game (50% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.83 (54% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 60%, Poisson probability 57% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan in?
• Tianjin Teda (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-W • Beijing Guoan (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-W-W • Tianjin Teda home split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | CS 3 • Beijing Guoan away split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | CS 4 • Form edge: Beijing Guoan lead by 0.50 PPG (1.80 vs 1.30) • xG vs form (Tianjin Teda): Poisson xG of 1.40 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.30 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Beijing Guoan): Poisson projects 1.43 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.70 — model applies a discount on visitor output; home side's defensive record is the key factor • Goals margin: form ~2.2 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.83 (54% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: strong YES — form rates Tianjin Teda 7/10, Beijing Guoan 6/10; Poisson BTTS probability 57% — all signals aligned • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Beijing Guoan — Beijing Guoan at 38% Poisson win probability
What do the betting odds say about Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture