Wuhan Three Towns 2-3 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Wuhan Three Towns at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wuhan Three Towns vs SHANGHAI SIPG fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Wuhan Three Towns host SHANGHAI SIPG at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 14 August 2026 at 11:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Wuhan Three Towns — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Three Towns, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Wuhan Three Towns have posted 4W 2D 4L at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across all Super League games this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Wuhan Three Towns at 1.20 PPG versus SHANGHAI SIPG's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The previous 9 encounters between these sides heavily favour SHANGHAI SIPG, who boast 7 victories compared to 2 for Wuhan Three Towns.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 0–4 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. SHANGHAI SIPG have won 7 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Wuhan Three Towns in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
SHANGHAI SIPG in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wuhan Three Towns 62% and SHANGHAI SIPG 78% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Wuhan Three Towns 58% | SHANGHAI SIPG 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Three Towns 1.47 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.846 / defence 0.906 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.178 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.701 / away 1.282. Data: 50 Wuhan Three Towns games / 51 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 40% | Draw 25% | SHANGHAI SIPG 35%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Three Towns 2.50 | Draw 4.00 | SHANGHAI SIPG 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Wuhan Three Towns as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wuhan Three Towns offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wuhan Three Towns 50% | SHANGHAI SIPG 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Three Towns vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Wuhan Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 14 Aug 2026, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 40% | Draw 25% | SHANGHAI SIPG 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Wuhan Three Towns 1.47 / SHANGHAI SIPG 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.846 / def 0.906 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.178 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.701 / away 1.282 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Three Towns (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Expected Goals
1.37
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wuhan Three Towns vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Wuhan Three Towns vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 11:35 on Friday 14 August 2026 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Wuhan Three Towns vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Wuhan Three Towns 2 - 3 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Wuhan Three Towns vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Wuhan Three Towns vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Wuhan Three Towns vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Three Towns vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Three Towns a 40% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Three Towns the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Three Towns vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Wuhan Three Towns and SHANGHAI SIPG will score (BTTS).
Will Wuhan Three Towns vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and SHANGHAI SIPG?
Record (9 meetings): Wuhan Three Towns 2W | Draws 0 | SHANGHAI SIPG 7W.
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and SHANGHAI SIPG in?
Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Wuhan Three Towns's attack at 0.85x the league average against SHANGHAI SIPG's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SHANGHAI SIPG's attack versus Wuhan Three Towns's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Three Towns Win
40%
2.51
25%
4.00
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Total xG
2.84
1.37
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
2.51
40%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
25%
3.93
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
10%
9.88
8%
12.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.8 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Three Towns vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Wuhan Three Towns and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Wuhan Three Towns and 1.37 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Three Towns vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Wuhan Three Towns come into this having played 50 games, going 10W 15D 25L for 0.90 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-D. The sample for Wuhan Three Towns is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SHANGHAI SIPG sit at 1.80 PPG from 50 outings (26W 12D 12L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SHANGHAI SIPG carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.90 PPG clear of Wuhan Three Towns — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Wuhan Three Towns's home form reads 8W 7D 9L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, SHANGHAI SIPG have taken 1.79 points per game from 24 outings (13W 4D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Wuhan Three Towns are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; SHANGHAI SIPG are on 2.04 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wuhan Three Towns have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; SHANGHAI SIPG in 78%.
Last 50 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and SHANGHAI SIPG in coming into this match?
Wuhan Three Towns have gone 10W 15D 25L in their last 50 games (0.90 PPG), while SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 26W 12D 12L in their last 50 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Three Towns at home or SHANGHAI SIPG away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Three Towns at home: 1.29 PPG; SHANGHAI SIPG away: 1.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wuhan Three Towns and SHANGHAI SIPG runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
SHANGHAI SIPG go into this on the back of 8 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Apr 2026, when SHANGHAI SIPG won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wuhan Three Towns's record when hosting SHANGHAI SIPG specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Wuhan Three Towns
0
Draws
8
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and SHANGHAI SIPG?
From 10 meetings on record, Wuhan Three Towns have won 2, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Three Towns and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when Wuhan Three Towns 2-3 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Three Towns and SHANGHAI SIPG?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Wuhan Three Towns at 58%, SHANGHAI SIPG at 79%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Wuhan Three Towns and 75% for SHANGHAI SIPG. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Three Towns home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wuhan Three Towns play SHANGHAI SIPG?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Wuhan Three Towns's games and 79% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wuhan Three Towns vs SHANGHAI SIPG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Wuhan Three Towns's matches and 75% of SHANGHAI SIPG's.
Do Wuhan Three Towns and SHANGHAI SIPG tend to score early?
Wuhan Three Towns have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, SHANGHAI SIPG in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SHANGHAI SIPG defy the odds to beat Wuhan Three Towns 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Wuhan Three Towns 2-3 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 1.47 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.37 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. SHANGHAI SIPG outscored their 1.37 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.85 / defence 0.91 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.18 / defence 1.02, drawn from 50/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 40% | Draw 25% | SHANGHAI SIPG 35%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual SHANGHAI SIPG win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Three Towns 58%, SHANGHAI SIPG 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 0.90. That form edge translated into the three points. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.