Poisson model rates Sichuan Jiuniu at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sichuan Jiuniu vs Hangzhou Greentown fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hangzhou Greentown make the trip to to face Sichuan Jiuniu in Super League, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 11:35 UTC.
Form
Sichuan Jiuniu (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sichuan Jiuniu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sichuan Jiuniu at this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Sichuan Jiuniu are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Hangzhou Greentown have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hangzhou Greentown away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Sichuan Jiuniu against 1.40 for Hangzhou Greentown. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Hangzhou Greentown, who have claimed 5 wins from 8 meetings compared to 2 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 1–2 with Hangzhou Greentown winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Hangzhou Greentown have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Stats
Across 18 matches this season, Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 6W 2D 10L. Their scoring output is 1.4 per match with 1.7 conceded on average. Biggest win: 5-2 (H) / 1-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 3-4 (H) / 5-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 5 games this season. 3 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 0 away). Scored 2+ goals in 4 of 18 games (22%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 0 missed from 2 awarded. Most used formation: 4-1-4-1. Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards per game, 0.17 reds per game.
Where They Stand
The standings have Sichuan Jiuniu (9th, 20 pts) 2 places above Hangzhou Greentown (11th, 17 pts) — a 3-point gap in Super League.
On home turf, Sichuan Jiuniu's Super League record reads 5W 1D 4L this term. Hangzhou Greentown have gone 3W 1D 5L on their travels.
Trading Data
Sichuan Jiuniu goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Hangzhou Greentown goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sichuan Jiuniu 57% versus Hangzhou Greentown 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sichuan Jiuniu 64% | Hangzhou Greentown 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 2.22 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.099 / defence 1.055 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.051 / defence 1.174. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.361. Data: 48 Sichuan Jiuniu games / 47 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 54% | Draw 20% | Hangzhou Greentown 26%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 1.85 | Draw 5.00 | Hangzhou Greentown 3.85. Sichuan Jiuniu hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.73. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.73 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.22 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sichuan Jiuniu are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.73 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Sichuan Jiuniu 60% | Hangzhou Greentown 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Aug 2026, 11:35 UTC • Manager edge: Sichuan Jiuniu led by C. Lattanzio • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (8 meetings): Sichuan Jiuniu 2W | Draws 1 | Hangzhou Greentown 5W • Goals trend: 3.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Sichuan Jiuniu 8 – 16 Hangzhou Greentown • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 62% | Win rates: Sichuan Jiuniu 25% / Draw 12% / Hangzhou Greentown 62% • Historical edge: Hangzhou Greentown dominant — 5W from 8 meetings (62% win rate) • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours Hangzhou Greentown (historical win rate 62%) but Poisson model rates Sichuan Jiuniu as more likely (home 54% / draw 20% / away 26%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 3.00 goals/game (62% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 3.73 (72% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 69% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-W • Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-L • Sichuan Jiuniu home split: 1.60 PPG from 10 | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | CS 3 • Hangzhou Greentown away split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | CS 1 • Form edge: minimal separation (Sichuan Jiuniu 1.10 PPG vs Hangzhou Greentown 1.40 PPG) • xG vs form (Sichuan Jiuniu): Poisson xG of 2.22 aligns with form scoring rate of 2.00 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Hangzhou Greentown): Poisson xG of 1.51 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.30 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.6 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.73 (72% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~55% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 69% — no strong positional edge
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 54% | Draw 20% | Hangzhou Greentown 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 69% | xG Sichuan Jiuniu 2.22 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.099 / def 1.055 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.051 / def 1.174 | league avg home 1.721 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Sichuan Jiuniu (54%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.22
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Hangzhou Greentown xG
69%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sichuan Jiuniu vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Hangzhou Greentown is scheduled to kick off at 11:35 on Saturday 22 August 2026.
What competition is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Sichuan Jiuniu vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Sichuan Jiuniu a 54% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 26% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Sichuan Jiuniu the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Sichuan Jiuniu and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will Sichuan Jiuniu vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Hangzhou Greentown?
• Record (8 meetings): Sichuan Jiuniu 2W | Draws 1 | Hangzhou Greentown 5W • Goals trend: 3.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Sichuan Jiuniu 8 – 16 Hangzhou Greentown • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 62% | Win rates: Sichuan Jiuniu 25% / Draw 12% / Hangzhou Greentown 62% • Historical edge: Hangzhou Greentown dominant — 5W from 8 meetings (62% win rate) • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours Hangzhou Greentown (historical win rate 62%) but Poisson model rates Sichuan Jiuniu as more likely (home 54% / draw 20% / away 26%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 3.00 goals/game (62% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 3.73 (72% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 69% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Hangzhou Greentown in?
• Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-W • Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-L • Sichuan Jiuniu home split: 1.60 PPG from 10 | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | CS 3 • Hangzhou Greentown away split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | CS 1 • Form edge: minimal separation (Sichuan Jiuniu 1.10 PPG vs Hangzhou Greentown 1.40 PPG) • xG vs form (Sichuan Jiuniu): Poisson xG of 2.22 aligns with form scoring rate of 2.00 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Hangzhou Greentown): Poisson xG of 1.51 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.30 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.6 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.73 (72% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~55% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 69% — no strong positional edge
What do the betting odds say about Sichuan Jiuniu vs Hangzhou Greentown?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture