Shanghai Shenhua 4-1 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Henan Jianye travel to Shanghai Stadium to take on Shanghai Shenhua. The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 August 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shanghai Shenhua, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shanghai Shenhua's home record at Shanghai Stadium: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Shanghai Shenhua are significantly better at Shanghai Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Henan Jianye — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Henan Jianye have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Henan Jianye's 1.70 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Shanghai Shenhua's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Shanghai Shenhua have dominated this rivalry, winning 6 of 9 past contests while Henan Jianye have managed just 1 wins.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2026, ended 3–0 with Shanghai Shenhua winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Shanghai Shenhua and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Shanghai Shenhua trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Henan Jianye trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Shanghai Shenhua 67% and Henan Jianye 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shanghai Shenhua 67% | Henan Jianye 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shanghai Shenhua 1.50 xG and Henan Jianye 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.044 / defence 1.219 | Henan Jianye attack 0.979 / defence 0.851. League average goals — home 1.693 / away 1.290. Data: 51 Shanghai Shenhua games / 51 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 37% | Draw 24% | Henan Jianye 39%. Fair-value odds: Shanghai Shenhua 2.70 | Draw 4.17 | Henan Jianye 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
Shanghai Shenhua dominate the H2H record, yet Henan Jianye are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Henan Jianye are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Shanghai Shenhua 70% | Henan Jianye 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Shanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Aug 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 37% | Draw 24% | Henan Jianye 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Shanghai Shenhua 1.50 / Henan Jianye 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.044 / def 1.219 | Henan Jianye attack 0.979 / def 0.851 | league avg home 1.693 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Henan Jianye xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 15 August 2026 at Shanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye?
Shanghai Shenhua 4 - 1 Henan Jianye.
Where is Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Shanghai Stadium.
What competition is Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye part of?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Shanghai Shenhua a 37% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 39% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Shanghai Shenhua and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Henan Jianye?
Record (9 meetings): Shanghai Shenhua 6W | Draws 2 | Henan Jianye 1W.
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Henan Jianye in?
Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Henan Jianye (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Shanghai Shenhua's attack at 1.04x the league average against Henan Jianye's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Henan Jianye's attack versus Shanghai Shenhua's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
37%
2.69
24%
4.15
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Total xG
3.04
1.54
Henan Jianye xG
2.69
37%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
21%
4.66
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
8%
12.53
9%
11.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.3 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.0 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.3 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Shanghai Shenhua and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Shanghai Shenhua and 1.54 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shanghai Shenhua come into this having played 51 games, going 28W 12D 11L for 1.88 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-W. The sample for Shanghai Shenhua is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Henan Jianye sit at 1.29 PPG from 51 outings (18W 12D 21L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shanghai Shenhua carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Shanghai Shenhua's home form reads 15W 6D 4L across 25 games on their own ground, a 2.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Henan Jianye have taken 1.16 points per game from 25 outings (8W 5D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shanghai Shenhua come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shanghai Shenhua are averaging 2.06 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 1.53 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shanghai Shenhua have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Henan Jianye in 67%.
Last 51 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
Henan Jianye
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Shanghai Shenhua have gone 28W 12D 11L in their last 51 games (1.88 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 18W 12D 21L in their last 51 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shanghai Shenhua at home or Henan Jianye away?
Shanghai Shenhua's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shanghai Shenhua at home: 2.04 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Shanghai Shenhua have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Sep 2023, when Henan Jianye won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shanghai Shenhua's record when hosting Henan Jianye specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Shanghai Shenhua
2
Draws
1
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Henan Jianye?
From 10 meetings on record, Shanghai Shenhua have won 7, Henan Jianye have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shanghai Shenhua and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Shanghai Shenhua 4-1 Henan Jianye.
Who has won more matches between Shanghai Shenhua and Henan Jianye?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Shanghai Shenhua at 72%, Henan Jianye at 68%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Shanghai Shenhua and 64% for Henan Jianye. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Henan Jianye in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shanghai Shenhua home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shanghai Shenhua play Henan Jianye?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Shanghai Shenhua's games and 68% of Henan Jianye's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Shanghai Shenhua's matches and 64% of Henan Jianye's.
Do Shanghai Shenhua and Henan Jianye tend to score early?
Shanghai Shenhua have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Henan Jianye in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shanghai Shenhua run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Henan Jianye.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua beat Henan Jianye 4-1 at Shanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shanghai Shenhua 1.50 xG and Henan Jianye 1.54 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Shanghai Shenhua beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.04 / defence 1.22 against Henan Jianye attack 0.98 / defence 0.85, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shanghai Shenhua 37% | Draw 24% | Henan Jianye 39%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Shanghai Shenhua win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shanghai Shenhua 67%, Henan Jianye 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.29. That form edge translated into the three points. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.40 average — above their attacking norm. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.