Dalian Zhixing 1-0 Shenyang Urban – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dalian Zhixing at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dalian Zhixing vs Shenyang Urban fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Shenyang Urban travel to Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium to take on Dalian Zhixing. The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 August 2026, 11:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dalian Zhixing stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Zhixing, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dalian Zhixing's home record at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Super League appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Dalian Zhixing are significantly better at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Shenyang Urban — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Shenyang Urban, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shenyang Urban's away record: 1W 3D 5L from 9 road trips in Super League this season (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.67 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Shenyang Urban are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Dalian Zhixing, 0 for Shenyang Urban and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2026, ended 1–0 with Dalian Zhixing winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Dalian Zhixing trading profile (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Shenyang Urban trading profile (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dalian Zhixing 65% and Shenyang Urban 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Dalian Zhixing 65% | Shenyang Urban 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Zhixing 1.93 xG and Shenyang Urban 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Zhixing attack 1.082 / defence 1.107 | Shenyang Urban attack 0.931 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.739 / away 1.322. Data: 50 Dalian Zhixing games / 20 Shenyang Urban games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 51% | Draw 22% | Shenyang Urban 27%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Zhixing 1.96 | Draw 4.55 | Shenyang Urban 3.70. Dalian Zhixing hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.93 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dalian Zhixing at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Shenyang Urban (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dalian Zhixing offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Dalian Zhixing 60% | Shenyang Urban 44%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Zhixing vs Shenyang Urban | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Aug 2026, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 51% | Draw 22% | Shenyang Urban 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 64% | xG Dalian Zhixing 1.93 / Shenyang Urban 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Zhixing attack 1.082 / def 1.107 | Shenyang Urban attack 0.931 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.739 / away 1.322 • Poisson stance: Dalian Zhixing (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Dalian Zhixing xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Shenyang Urban xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalian Zhixing vs Shenyang Urban kick off?
Dalian Zhixing vs Shenyang Urban kicked off at 11:35 on Saturday 8 August 2026 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Dalian Zhixing vs Shenyang Urban?
Dalian Zhixing 1 - 0 Shenyang Urban.
Where is Dalian Zhixing vs Shenyang Urban being played?
The match is being played at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Zhixing vs Shenyang Urban part of?
Dalian Zhixing vs Shenyang Urban is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Zhixing vs Shenyang Urban?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Zhixing a 51% chance of winning, Shenyang Urban a 27% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Dalian Zhixing the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Zhixing vs Shenyang Urban?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Dalian Zhixing and Shenyang Urban will score (BTTS).
Will Dalian Zhixing vs Shenyang Urban have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Zhixing and Shenyang Urban?
Record (1 meetings): Dalian Zhixing 1W | Draws 0 | Shenyang Urban 0W.
What form are Dalian Zhixing and Shenyang Urban in?
Dalian Zhixing (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Shenyang Urban (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Dalian Zhixing's attack rating (1.08) and Shenyang Urban's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shenyang Urban's attack versus Dalian Zhixing's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalian Zhixing Win
51%
1.97
22%
4.48
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Dalian Zhixing xG
Total xG
3.29
1.36
Shenyang Urban xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
26%
3.91
15%
6.90
Win to Nil
13%
7.71
4%
25.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 9.8 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Zhixing vs Shenyang Urban?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Dalian Zhixing and Shenyang Urban expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Dalian Zhixing and 1.36 for Shenyang Urban, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Zhixing vs Shenyang Urban?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 20 outings, Dalian Zhixing have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 9W 2D 9L record — L-W-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Dalian Zhixing is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shenyang Urban's form line: 7W 3D 10L from 20 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-W. The sample for Shenyang Urban is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dalian Zhixing on 1.45 PPG, Shenyang Urban on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Dalian Zhixing have posted 2.00 PPG from 9 outings (6W 0D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.45 PPG overall — Dalian Zhixing are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Shenyang Urban have gone 1W 3D 5L from 9 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shenyang Urban's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dalian Zhixing come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dalian Zhixing are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Shenyang Urban are on 1.40 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dalian Zhixing have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 20 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Zhixing
Blended
Shenyang Urban
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dalian Zhixing and Shenyang Urban in coming into this match?
Dalian Zhixing have gone 9W 2D 9L in their last 20 games (1.45 PPG), while Shenyang Urban have gone 7W 3D 10L in their last 20 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalian Zhixing at home or Shenyang Urban away?
Dalian Zhixing's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalian Zhixing at home: 2.00 PPG; Shenyang Urban away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dalian Zhixing and Shenyang Urban runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Dalian Zhixing
0
Draws
0
Shenyang Urban
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Zhixing and Shenyang Urban?
From 2 meetings on record, Dalian Zhixing have won 2, Shenyang Urban have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Zhixing and Shenyang Urban last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Dalian Zhixing 1-0 Shenyang Urban.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Zhixing and Shenyang Urban?
Dalian Zhixing have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dalian Zhixing are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Shenyang Urban are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dalian Zhixing 67%, Shenyang Urban 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Dalian Zhixing and 56% for Shenyang Urban. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dalian Zhixing keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Shenyang Urban in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Zhixing home games / Shenyang Urban away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dalian Zhixing play Shenyang Urban?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Dalian Zhixing's games and 44% of Shenyang Urban's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dalian Zhixing vs Shenyang Urban usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Dalian Zhixing's matches and 56% of Shenyang Urban's.
Do Dalian Zhixing and Shenyang Urban tend to score early?
Dalian Zhixing have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Shenyang Urban in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dalian Zhixing edge out Shenyang Urban 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dalian Zhixing beat Shenyang Urban 1-0 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Zhixing 1.93 xG and Shenyang Urban 1.36 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Dalian Zhixing fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Shenyang Urban landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Zhixing attack 1.08 / defence 1.11 against Shenyang Urban attack 0.93 / defence 1.03, drawn from 50/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Zhixing 51% | Draw 22% | Shenyang Urban 27%, with Dalian Zhixing to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Zhixing 65%, Shenyang Urban 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dalian Zhixing's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Shenyang Urban's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dalian Zhixing 1.45 PPG, Shenyang Urban 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dalian Zhixing win broke the near-deadlock. Dalian Zhixing (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line. Shenyang Urban (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.