Poisson model rates Dalian Zhixing at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dalian Zhixing vs Shenyang Urban fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Shenyang Urban travel to Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium to take on Dalian Zhixing. The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 August 2026, 11:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dalian Zhixing stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Super League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Zhixing, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dalian Zhixing's home record at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Super League appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Dalian Zhixing are significantly better at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Shenyang Urban — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shenyang Urban, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shenyang Urban's away record: 1W 2D 5L from 8 road trips in Super League this season (0.62 PPG). Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.62 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Dalian Zhixing 1.00 PPG, Shenyang Urban 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Season Statistics
Dalian Zhixing's full-season record stands at 8W 1D 8L from 17 games. Attacking returns: 1.5 goals per game; defensive: 1.8 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 3-0 (H) / 1-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-4 (H) / 4-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 5 consecutive games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 2 games this season. 5 clean sheets this season (4 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 3 of 17 games (18%). Penalties this season: 3 scored / 0 missed from 3 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards per game.
The visitors have accumulated 6W 2D 9L from their 17 Super League appearances this term. Attacking returns: 1.4 goals per game; defensive: 1.7 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 3-0 (H) / 0-5 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-5 (H) / 4-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Worst losing run: 6 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 6 games this season. 2 clean sheets this season (1 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 4 of 17 games (24%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 0 missed from 2 awarded. Most used formation: 4-1-4-1. Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards per game, 0.12 reds per game.
Dalian Zhixing lead on clean sheets this season (5 vs 2). Penalty activity: Dalian Zhixing 3/3 vs Shenyang Urban 2/2 this season.
Standings Snapshot
Dalian Zhixing hold the table advantage, sitting 3rd with 25 points — 5 positions and 5 points clear of Shenyang Urban in 8th.
At home this season, Dalian Zhixing have gone 6W 0D 3L. Shenyang Urban have gone 1W 2D 5L on their travels.
In-Play Data
Dalian Zhixing trading profile (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Shenyang Urban trading profile (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Zhixing 59% versus Shenyang Urban 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Dalian Zhixing 65% | Shenyang Urban 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Zhixing 1.94 xG and Shenyang Urban 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Zhixing attack 1.006 / defence 1.121 | Shenyang Urban attack 0.930 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.361. Data: 47 Dalian Zhixing games / 17 Shenyang Urban games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 50% | Draw 22% | Shenyang Urban 28%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Zhixing 2.00 | Draw 4.55 | Shenyang Urban 3.57. Dalian Zhixing hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.94 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dalian Zhixing at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dalian Zhixing offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.36 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Dalian Zhixing 50% | Shenyang Urban 38%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Zhixing vs Shenyang Urban | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Aug 2026, 11:35 UTC • Managers: Dalian Zhixing (Li Guoxu) | Shenyang Urban (Li Jinyu) • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset
📈 Recent Form
• Dalian Zhixing (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-W • Shenyang Urban (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-W • Dalian Zhixing home split: 1.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | CS 4 • Shenyang Urban away split: 0.62 PPG from 8 | GF 1.12 / GA 1.88 | CS 1 • Form edge: minimal separation (Dalian Zhixing 1.00 PPG vs Shenyang Urban 1.30 PPG) • xG vs form (Dalian Zhixing): Poisson projects 1.94 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.60 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Shenyang Urban): Poisson projects 1.42 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.12 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals margin: form ~2.2 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.36 (65% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~44% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 65% — no strong positional edge
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 50% | Draw 22% | Shenyang Urban 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 65% | xG Dalian Zhixing 1.94 / Shenyang Urban 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Zhixing attack 1.006 / def 1.121 | Shenyang Urban attack 0.930 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.721 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Dalian Zhixing (50%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Dalian Zhixing xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Shenyang Urban xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalian Zhixing vs Shenyang Urban kick off?
Dalian Zhixing vs Shenyang Urban is scheduled to kick off at 11:35 on Saturday 8 August 2026 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
Where is Dalian Zhixing vs Shenyang Urban being played?
The match is being played at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Zhixing vs Shenyang Urban part of?
Dalian Zhixing vs Shenyang Urban is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Zhixing vs Shenyang Urban?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Zhixing a 50% chance of winning, Shenyang Urban a 28% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Dalian Zhixing the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Zhixing vs Shenyang Urban?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Dalian Zhixing and Shenyang Urban will score (BTTS).
Will Dalian Zhixing vs Shenyang Urban have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Zhixing and Shenyang Urban?
• No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset
What form are Dalian Zhixing and Shenyang Urban in?
• Dalian Zhixing (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-W • Shenyang Urban (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-W • Dalian Zhixing home split: 1.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | CS 4 • Shenyang Urban away split: 0.62 PPG from 8 | GF 1.12 / GA 1.88 | CS 1 • Form edge: minimal separation (Dalian Zhixing 1.00 PPG vs Shenyang Urban 1.30 PPG) • xG vs form (Dalian Zhixing): Poisson projects 1.94 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.60 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Shenyang Urban): Poisson projects 1.42 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.12 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals margin: form ~2.2 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.36 (65% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~44% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 65% — no strong positional edge
What do the betting odds say about Dalian Zhixing vs Shenyang Urban?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture