📋

Poisson rates Tianjin Teda at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tianjin Teda vs Dalian Zhixing encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Dalian Zhixing make the trip to TEDA Football Stadium to face Tianjin Teda in Super League, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Sunday 31 May 2026 at 11:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Tianjin Teda have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Tianjin Teda at TEDA Football Stadium this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at TEDA Football Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Tianjin Teda are significantly better at TEDA Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Dalian Zhixing (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Super League outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Dalian Zhixing away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Tianjin Teda's favour (1.40 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Tianjin Teda 1W, Dalian Zhixing 0W, 1D.

The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2025, ended 2–0 with Tianjin Teda winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Season Stats

The hosts have accumulated 12W 8D 10L from their 30 Super League appearances this term. They average 1.3 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 3-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-4 (H) / 3-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 7 games this season. 8 clean sheets this season (8 at home, 0 away). Scored 2+ goals in 2 of 30 games (7%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 0 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 5-4-1. Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards per game.

Dalian Zhixing's full-season record stands at 9W 9D 12L from 30 games. Their scoring output is 1.0 per match with 1.5 conceded on average. Biggest win: 2-0 (H) / 0-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-3 (H) / 4-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 4 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 11 games this season. 8 clean sheets this season (7 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 1 of 30 games (3%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 0 missed from 2 awarded. Most used formation: 4-4-2. Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards per game, 0.10 reds per game.

Penalty activity: Tianjin Teda 4/4 vs Dalian Zhixing 2/2 this season.

Trading

Tianjin Teda half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Dalian Zhixing half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 53% versus Dalian Zhixing 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 53% | Dalian Zhixing 33%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.57 xG and Dalian Zhixing 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.818 / defence 1.189 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.878 / defence 1.172. League average goals — home 1.640 / away 1.349. Data: 44 Tianjin Teda games / 44 Dalian Zhixing games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 41% | Draw 24% | Dalian Zhixing 34%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.44 | Draw 4.17 | Dalian Zhixing 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Tianjin Teda at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Tianjin Teda 30% | Dalian Zhixing 60%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights