SHANGHAI SIPG 4-1 Qingdao Youth Island – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Youth Island encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SHANGHAI SIPG host Qingdao Youth Island at Pudong Football Stadium in Super League (matchday 2). Kick-off is Sunday 15 March 2026 at 11:00 UK time.
Form Guide
SHANGHAI SIPG — last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
SHANGHAI SIPG's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Qingdao Youth Island have recorded 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Qingdao Youth Island have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
SHANGHAI SIPG carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for SHANGHAI SIPG, 0 for Qingdao Youth Island and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 5.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 26 Jul 2025, ended SHANGHAI SIPG 2–2 Qingdao Youth Island — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SHANGHAI SIPG trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
Qingdao Youth Island trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SHANGHAI SIPG 70% and Qingdao Youth Island 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SHANGHAI SIPG 77% | Qingdao Youth Island 57%). Note also that Qingdao Youth Island surrender HT leads in 35% of cases while SHANGHAI SIPG recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 1.74 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.012 / defence 1.073 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.854 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.809 / away 1.216. Data: built from SHANGHAI SIPG's last 31 games and Qingdao Youth Island's last 31. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 52% | Draw 24% | Qingdao Youth Island 24%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 1.93 | Draw 4.15 | Qingdao Youth Island 4.15. SHANGHAI SIPG hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SHANGHAI SIPG offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (SHANGHAI SIPG's last 10 home games and Qingdao Youth Island's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 5.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SHANGHAI SIPG 80% (last 10 home games) | Qingdao Youth Island 50% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (SHANGHAI SIPG 31 games, Qingdao Youth Island 31) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Youth Island | Competition: Super League, matchday 2 | Venue: Pudong Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 15 March 2026 at 11:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 52% | Draw 24% | Qingdao Youth Island 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 1.74 / Qingdao Youth Island 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.012 / def 1.073 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.854 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.809 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Qingdao Youth Island xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Youth Island FAQs
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Youth Island kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Youth Island kicked off at 11:00 UK time on Sunday 15 March 2026 at Pudong Football Stadium.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Youth Island?
SHANGHAI SIPG 4 - 1 Qingdao Youth Island.
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Youth Island being played?
The match is being played at Pudong Football Stadium.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Youth Island part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Youth Island is a Super League fixture (matchday 2) (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 52% chance of winning, Qingdao Youth Island a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Youth Island will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Youth Island have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
SHANGHAI SIPG's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Qingdao Youth Island's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Youth Island's attack versus SHANGHAI SIPG's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SHANGHAI SIPG's last 31 games and Qingdao Youth Island's last 31, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
52%
1.93
24%
4.15
24%
4.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
2.85
1.11
Qingdao Youth Island xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
4.15
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
18%
5.69
Win to Nil
17%
5.88
4%
23.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.2 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Youth Island Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Youth Island expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 1.11 for Qingdao Youth Island, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SHANGHAI SIPG come into this having played 60 games, going 45W 9D 6L for 2.40 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, Qingdao Youth Island sit at 1.20 PPG from 60 outings (18W 18D 24L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-W across their last five.
SHANGHAI SIPG carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.20 PPG clear of Qingdao Youth Island — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
SHANGHAI SIPG's home form reads 23W 5D 2L across their last 30 home games, a 2.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Qingdao Youth Island have taken 1.10 points per game from their last 30 away games (9W 6D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SHANGHAI SIPG are averaging 2.80 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Youth Island are on 1.33 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SHANGHAI SIPG have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Qingdao Youth Island in 60%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Current Season
Qingdao Youth Island
Current Season
SHANGHAI SIPG (Home) vs Qingdao Youth Island (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SHANGHAI SIPG
Current Season
Qingdao Youth Island
Current Season
❓ SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Youth Island Form FAQs
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Youth Island in coming into this match?
SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 45W 9D 6L in their last 60 games (2.40 PPG), while Qingdao Youth Island have gone 18W 18D 24L in their last 60 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SHANGHAI SIPG at home or Qingdao Youth Island away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record (2.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SHANGHAI SIPG at home: 2.47 PPG; Qingdao Youth Island away: 1.10 PPG.
Have SHANGHAI SIPG or Qingdao Youth Island been keeping clean sheets recently?
SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Qingdao Youth Island in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2024. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 4 July 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 15 Mar 2026, when SHANGHAI SIPG won SHANGHAI SIPG 4-1 Qingdao Youth Island.
SHANGHAI SIPG's record when hosting Qingdao Youth Island specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
SHANGHAI SIPG
2
Draws
1
Qingdao Youth Island
Recent Meetings
❓ SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Youth Island H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Youth Island?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 3, Qingdao Youth Island have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Youth Island last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 July 2026: Qingdao Youth Island 2-1 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Youth Island?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Qingdao Youth Island are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SHANGHAI SIPG at 77%, Qingdao Youth Island at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for SHANGHAI SIPG and 63% for Qingdao Youth Island. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Qingdao Youth Island in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Qingdao Youth Island away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Youth Island Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Youth Island matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of SHANGHAI SIPG's games and 60% of Qingdao Youth Island's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Youth Island matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of SHANGHAI SIPG's matches and 63% of Qingdao Youth Island's.
Do SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Youth Island matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent matches and 87% of Qingdao Youth Island's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SHANGHAI SIPG run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Qingdao Youth Island.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Qingdao Youth Island 4-1 at Pudong Football Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 1.74 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.11 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. SHANGHAI SIPG beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.01 / defence 1.07 against Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.85 / defence 0.95, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 52% | Draw 24% | Qingdao Youth Island 24%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 77%, Qingdao Youth Island 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.20. That form edge translated into the three points. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 3.10 average — above their attacking norm. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.