Henan Jianye 2-1 Yunnan Yukun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Henan Jianye vs Yunnan Yukun fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Henan Jianye host Yunnan Yukun at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 15 March 2026 at 07:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Henan Jianye have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Henan Jianye at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Yunnan Yukun stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Yunnan Yukun have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Henan Jianye) versus 1.60 (Yunnan Yukun). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Henan Jianye have won 0, Yunnan Yukun 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Henan Jianye trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Yunnan Yukun trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Henan Jianye 73% and Yunnan Yukun 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 67% | Yunnan Yukun 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.86 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 1.032 / defence 0.986 | Yunnan Yukun attack 1.051 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.806 / away 1.226. Data: 31 Henan Jianye games / 31 Yunnan Yukun games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 51% | Draw 23% | Yunnan Yukun 26%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 1.96 | Draw 4.35 | Yunnan Yukun 3.85. Henan Jianye hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.86 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Henan Jianye at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.14 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Henan Jianye 70% | Yunnan Yukun 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Yunnan Yukun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Mar 2026, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 51% | Draw 23% | Yunnan Yukun 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 61% | xG Henan Jianye 1.86 / Yunnan Yukun 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 1.032 / def 0.986 | Yunnan Yukun attack 1.051 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.806 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Yunnan Yukun xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Yunnan Yukun kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Yunnan Yukun kicked off at 07:30 on Sunday 15 March 2026 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Yunnan Yukun?
Henan Jianye 2 - 1 Yunnan Yukun.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Yunnan Yukun being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Yunnan Yukun part of?
Henan Jianye vs Yunnan Yukun is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 51% chance of winning, Yunnan Yukun a 26% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Henan Jianye and Yunnan Yukun will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Yunnan Yukun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Yunnan Yukun?
Record (2 meetings): Henan Jianye 0W | Draws 1 | Yunnan Yukun 1W.
What form are Henan Jianye and Yunnan Yukun in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Yunnan Yukun (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Henan Jianye's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Yunnan Yukun's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.86. The same calculation in reverse, Yunnan Yukun's attack versus Henan Jianye's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
51%
1.95
23%
4.36
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
3.14
1.27
Yunnan Yukun xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
15%
6.46
Win to Nil
14%
6.97
4%
24.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.3 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Yunnan Yukun expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 1.27 for Yunnan Yukun, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Yunnan Yukun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Henan Jianye come into this having played 30 games, going 10W 7D 13L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-D.
On the other side, Yunnan Yukun sit at 1.40 PPG from 30 outings (11W 9D 10L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Henan Jianye on 1.23 PPG, Yunnan Yukun on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Henan Jianye's home form reads 6W 4D 5L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Yunnan Yukun have taken 0.93 points per game from 15 outings (3W 5D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.40 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Yunnan Yukun's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Henan Jianye come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Yunnan Yukun are on 1.57 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Henan Jianye have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; Yunnan Yukun in 73%.
Last 30 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Current Season
Yunnan Yukun
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and Yunnan Yukun in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 10W 7D 13L in their last 30 games (1.23 PPG), while Yunnan Yukun have gone 11W 9D 10L in their last 30 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Yunnan Yukun away?
Henan Jianye's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 1.47 PPG; Yunnan Yukun away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Henan Jianye and Yunnan Yukun runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 3 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Henan Jianye's record when hosting Yunnan Yukun specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Henan Jianye
1
Draws
2
Yunnan Yukun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Yunnan Yukun?
From 4 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 1, Yunnan Yukun have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Yunnan Yukun last play each other?
They last met on 3 July 2026, when Yunnan Yukun 2-1 Henan Jianye.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Yunnan Yukun?
Yunnan Yukun have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Yunnan Yukun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Henan Jianye at 80%, Yunnan Yukun at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Henan Jianye and 60% for Yunnan Yukun. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Yunnan Yukun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play Yunnan Yukun?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Henan Jianye's games and 80% of Yunnan Yukun's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Henan Jianye vs Yunnan Yukun usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Henan Jianye's matches and 60% of Yunnan Yukun's.
Do Henan Jianye and Yunnan Yukun tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Yunnan Yukun in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Henan Jianye edge out Yunnan Yukun 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye beat Yunnan Yukun 2-1 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 1.86 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.27 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 1.03 / defence 0.99 against Yunnan Yukun attack 1.05 / defence 1.00, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 51% | Draw 23% | Yunnan Yukun 26%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 67%, Yunnan Yukun 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Yunnan Yukun's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Henan Jianye 1.23 PPG, Yunnan Yukun 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Henan Jianye win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.