Dalian Zhixing 1-0 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dalian Zhixing at 43%, yet in-form SHANGHAI SIPG provide a compelling counter-argument — this Dalian Zhixing vs SHANGHAI SIPG fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dalian Zhixing host SHANGHAI SIPG at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 20 March 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dalian Zhixing stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Super League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Dalian Zhixing's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Dalian Zhixing are significantly better at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
SHANGHAI SIPG — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
SHANGHAI SIPG's form when playing away from home: 8W 0D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. SHANGHAI SIPG are 1.50 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Dalian Zhixing, 2 for SHANGHAI SIPG and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 0–1 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Dalian Zhixing in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
SHANGHAI SIPG in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 87% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 87% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dalian Zhixing 40% and SHANGHAI SIPG 83% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Zhixing 33% | SHANGHAI SIPG 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Zhixing 1.55 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Zhixing attack 0.853 / defence 0.959 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.166 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.832 / away 1.182. Data: 32 Dalian Zhixing games / 32 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 43% | Draw 25% | SHANGHAI SIPG 33%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Zhixing 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | SHANGHAI SIPG 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dalian Zhixing are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SHANGHAI SIPG (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dalian Zhixing offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: Dalian Zhixing 10% | SHANGHAI SIPG 90%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Zhixing vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 20 Mar 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 43% | Draw 25% | SHANGHAI SIPG 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Dalian Zhixing 1.55 / SHANGHAI SIPG 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Zhixing attack 0.853 / def 0.959 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.166 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.832 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Dalian Zhixing (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Dalian Zhixing xG
Expected Goals
1.32
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalian Zhixing vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Dalian Zhixing vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 11:00 on Friday 20 March 2026 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Dalian Zhixing vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Dalian Zhixing 1 - 0 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Dalian Zhixing vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Zhixing vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Dalian Zhixing vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Zhixing vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Zhixing a 43% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Dalian Zhixing the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Zhixing vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Dalian Zhixing and SHANGHAI SIPG will score (BTTS).
Will Dalian Zhixing vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Zhixing and SHANGHAI SIPG?
Record (2 meetings): Dalian Zhixing 0W | Draws 0 | SHANGHAI SIPG 2W.
What form are Dalian Zhixing and SHANGHAI SIPG in?
Dalian Zhixing (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Dalian Zhixing's attack at 0.85x the league average against SHANGHAI SIPG's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SHANGHAI SIPG's attack versus Dalian Zhixing's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalian Zhixing Win
43%
2.34
25%
4.04
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Dalian Zhixing xG
Total xG
2.87
1.32
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
2.34
43%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
21%
4.69
Win to Nil
11%
8.79
7%
14.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.6 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Zhixing vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Dalian Zhixing and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Dalian Zhixing and 1.32 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Zhixing vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dalian Zhixing's recent record stands at 9W 9D 12L from 30 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-L in the last five.
SHANGHAI SIPG, meanwhile, have gone 20W 6D 4L across 30 games — 2.20 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours SHANGHAI SIPG by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dalian Zhixing heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Dalian Zhixing have managed 8W 2D 5L from 15 games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Dalian Zhixing are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record stands at 11W 2D 2L across 15 trips, a 2.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dalian Zhixing are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; SHANGHAI SIPG are on 2.40 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SHANGHAI SIPG in 83%.
Last 30 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Zhixing
Current Season
SHANGHAI SIPG
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dalian Zhixing and SHANGHAI SIPG in coming into this match?
Dalian Zhixing have gone 9W 9D 12L in their last 30 games (1.20 PPG), while SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 20W 6D 4L in their last 30 (2.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalian Zhixing at home or SHANGHAI SIPG away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalian Zhixing at home: 1.73 PPG; SHANGHAI SIPG away: 2.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dalian Zhixing and SHANGHAI SIPG runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 19 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Jun 2025, when SHANGHAI SIPG won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dalian Zhixing's record when hosting SHANGHAI SIPG specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Dalian Zhixing
1
Draws
2
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Zhixing and SHANGHAI SIPG?
From 4 meetings on record, Dalian Zhixing have won 1, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Zhixing and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
They last met on 19 August 2026, when SHANGHAI SIPG 1-1 Dalian Zhixing.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Zhixing and SHANGHAI SIPG?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dalian Zhixing are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dalian Zhixing 20%, SHANGHAI SIPG 87% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Dalian Zhixing) and 87% (SHANGHAI SIPG).
On the defensive side: Dalian Zhixing keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Dalian Zhixing have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Zhixing home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dalian Zhixing play SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Dalian Zhixing's recent matches and 87% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dalian Zhixing vs SHANGHAI SIPG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Dalian Zhixing's recent games and 87% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dalian Zhixing and SHANGHAI SIPG tend to score early?
Dalian Zhixing have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, SHANGHAI SIPG in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dalian Zhixing edge out SHANGHAI SIPG 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dalian Zhixing beat SHANGHAI SIPG 1-0 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Zhixing 1.55 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.32 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SHANGHAI SIPG landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Zhixing attack 0.85 / defence 0.96 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.17 / defence 0.99, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Zhixing 43% | Draw 25% | SHANGHAI SIPG 33%, with Dalian Zhixing to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Zhixing 33%, SHANGHAI SIPG 80%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dalian Zhixing's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with Dalian Zhixing winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dalian Zhixing (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.53 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.