Qingdao Youth Island 1-0 Sichuan Jiuniu – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Qingdao Youth Island at 62% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Qingdao Youth Island vs Sichuan Jiuniu encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Sichuan Jiuniu travel to Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center to take on Qingdao Youth Island. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 March 2026, 11:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Qingdao Youth Island stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center, Qingdao Youth Island have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sichuan Jiuniu — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sichuan Jiuniu's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Qingdao Youth Island 1.30 PPG, Sichuan Jiuniu 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Qingdao Youth Island have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 4 past contests while Sichuan Jiuniu have managed just 0 wins.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2025, ended 2–1 with Qingdao Youth Island winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Qingdao Youth Island and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Qingdao Youth Island in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Sichuan Jiuniu in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Youth Island 60% versus Sichuan Jiuniu 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Youth Island 57% | Sichuan Jiuniu 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Youth Island 2.21 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.942 / defence 1.014 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.937 / defence 1.310. League average goals — home 1.794 / away 1.170. Sichuan Jiuniu bring a strong defensive rating of 1.310 — this is suppressing Qingdao Youth Island's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Qingdao Youth Island games / 32 Sichuan Jiuniu games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 62% | Draw 20% | Sichuan Jiuniu 18%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Youth Island 1.61 | Draw 5.00 | Sichuan Jiuniu 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Qingdao Youth Island (62%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.21 / 1.11) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
Form averages suggest only ~1.7 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 65% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
On the Poisson output, Qingdao Youth Island are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.33 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral: Qingdao Youth Island 50% | Sichuan Jiuniu 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Youth Island vs Sichuan Jiuniu | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Mar 2026, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 62% | Draw 20% | Sichuan Jiuniu 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 60% | xG Qingdao Youth Island 2.21 / Sichuan Jiuniu 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.942 / def 1.014 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.937 / def 1.310 | league avg home 1.794 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Youth Island (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
60%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Youth Island vs Sichuan Jiuniu kick off?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Sichuan Jiuniu kicked off at 11:35 on Saturday 21 March 2026 at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center.
What was the final score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Qingdao Youth Island 1 - 0 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Where is Qingdao Youth Island vs Sichuan Jiuniu being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center.
What competition is Qingdao Youth Island vs Sichuan Jiuniu part of?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Sichuan Jiuniu is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Youth Island vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Youth Island a 62% chance of winning, Sichuan Jiuniu a 18% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Youth Island the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Qingdao Youth Island and Sichuan Jiuniu will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Youth Island vs Sichuan Jiuniu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Record (4 meetings): Qingdao Youth Island 3W | Draws 1 | Sichuan Jiuniu 0W.
What form are Qingdao Youth Island and Sichuan Jiuniu in?
Qingdao Youth Island (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Qingdao Youth Island's attack at 0.94x the league average against Sichuan Jiuniu's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 2.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sichuan Jiuniu's attack versus Qingdao Youth Island's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Youth Island Win
62%
1.61
20%
4.92
18%
5.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Total xG
3.33
1.11
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.92
20%
Draw
5.65
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
11%
9.15
Win to Nil
20%
4.91
2%
51.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Youth Island vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Qingdao Youth Island and Sichuan Jiuniu expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Qingdao Youth Island and 1.11 for Sichuan Jiuniu, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Youth Island vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Qingdao Youth Island's recent record stands at 18W 18D 24L from 60 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-W in the last five.
Sichuan Jiuniu, meanwhile, have gone 15W 11D 34L across 60 games — 0.93 PPG, with L-W-W-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Qingdao Youth Island on 1.20 PPG, Sichuan Jiuniu on 0.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Qingdao Youth Island have managed 9W 12D 9L from 30 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sichuan Jiuniu's away record stands at 5W 5D 20L across 30 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Qingdao Youth Island come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Qingdao Youth Island are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Sichuan Jiuniu are on 1.07 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Qingdao Youth Island have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Youth Island
Current Season
Sichuan Jiuniu
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Youth Island and Sichuan Jiuniu in coming into this match?
Qingdao Youth Island have gone 18W 18D 24L in their last 60 games (1.20 PPG), while Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 15W 11D 34L in their last 60 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Youth Island at home or Sichuan Jiuniu away?
Qingdao Youth Island's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Youth Island at home: 1.30 PPG; Sichuan Jiuniu away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Qingdao Youth Island and Sichuan Jiuniu runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 11 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jul 2026, when Sichuan Jiuniu won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Qingdao Youth Island's record when hosting Sichuan Jiuniu specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Qingdao Youth Island
1
Draws
1
Sichuan Jiuniu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and Sichuan Jiuniu?
From 6 meetings on record, Qingdao Youth Island have won 4, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Youth Island and Sichuan Jiuniu last play each other?
They last met on 11 July 2026, when Sichuan Jiuniu 3-0 Qingdao Youth Island.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Youth Island and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Qingdao Youth Island have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Qingdao Youth Island are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Sichuan Jiuniu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Youth Island 60%, Sichuan Jiuniu 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Qingdao Youth Island) and 57% (Sichuan Jiuniu).
On the defensive side: Sichuan Jiuniu in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Youth Island home games / Sichuan Jiuniu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Youth Island play Sichuan Jiuniu?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Qingdao Youth Island's recent matches and 47% of Sichuan Jiuniu's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Qingdao Youth Island vs Sichuan Jiuniu usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Qingdao Youth Island's recent games and 57% of Sichuan Jiuniu's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Qingdao Youth Island and Sichuan Jiuniu tend to score early?
Qingdao Youth Island have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Sichuan Jiuniu in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Qingdao Youth Island edge out Sichuan Jiuniu 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Qingdao Youth Island beat Sichuan Jiuniu 1-0 at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Youth Island 2.21 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.11 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Qingdao Youth Island fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Sichuan Jiuniu landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.94 / defence 1.01 against Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.94 / defence 1.31, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Youth Island 62% | Draw 20% | Sichuan Jiuniu 18%, with Qingdao Youth Island to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Youth Island 57%, Sichuan Jiuniu 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Qingdao Youth Island 1.20 PPG, Sichuan Jiuniu 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Qingdao Youth Island win broke the near-deadlock. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.