Poisson model rates Chongqing Tongliang Long at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shenyang Urban fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shenyang Urban make the trip to Tongliang Long Stadium to face Chongqing Tongliang Long in Super League, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 March 2026 at 11:35 UTC.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Chongqing Tongliang Long lead 2W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Jul 2025, ended 2–4 with Shenyang Urban winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.95 xG and Shenyang Urban 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.859 / defence 1.150 | Shenyang Urban attack 0.709 / defence 1.210. League average goals — home 1.872 / away 1.323. Shenyang Urban bring a strong defensive rating of 1.210 — this is suppressing Chongqing Tongliang Long's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 1 Chongqing Tongliang Long games / 1 Shenyang Urban games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Chongqing Tongliang Long 55% | Draw 26% | Shenyang Urban 19%. Fair-value odds: Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Shenyang Urban 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Chongqing Tongliang Long (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chongqing Tongliang Long are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shenyang Urban | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Tongliang Long Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Mar 2026, 11:35 UTC • Managers: Chongqing Tongliang Long (Salvador Suay) | Shenyang Urban (Li Jinyu) • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (4 meetings): Chongqing Tongliang Long 2W | Draws 0 | Shenyang Urban 2W • Goals trend: 3.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Chongqing Tongliang Long 5 – 7 Shenyang Urban • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Chongqing Tongliang Long 50% / Draw 0% / Shenyang Urban 50% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 55% / draw 26% / away 19% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 3.00 goals/game (50% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 3.02 (58% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 59% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Form data is not yet available for either side
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chongqing Tongliang Long 55% | Draw 26% | Shenyang Urban 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.95 / Shenyang Urban 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.859 / def 1.150 | Shenyang Urban attack 0.709 / def 1.210 | league avg home 1.872 / away 1.323 • Poisson stance: Chongqing Tongliang Long (55%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Shenyang Urban xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shenyang Urban kick off?
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shenyang Urban kicked off at 11:35 on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Tongliang Long Stadium.
What was the final score in Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shenyang Urban?
Chongqing Tongliang Long 1 - 0 Shenyang Urban.
Where is Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shenyang Urban being played?
The match is being played at Tongliang Long Stadium.
What competition is Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shenyang Urban part of?
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shenyang Urban is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shenyang Urban?
Our statistical model gives Chongqing Tongliang Long a 55% chance of winning, Shenyang Urban a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Chongqing Tongliang Long the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shenyang Urban?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Chongqing Tongliang Long and Shenyang Urban will score (BTTS).
Will Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shenyang Urban have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chongqing Tongliang Long and Shenyang Urban?
• Record (4 meetings): Chongqing Tongliang Long 2W | Draws 0 | Shenyang Urban 2W • Goals trend: 3.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Chongqing Tongliang Long 5 – 7 Shenyang Urban • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Chongqing Tongliang Long 50% / Draw 0% / Shenyang Urban 50% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 55% / draw 26% / away 19% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 3.00 goals/game (50% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 3.02 (58% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 59% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Chongqing Tongliang Long and Shenyang Urban in?
• Form data is not yet available for either side
What do the betting odds say about Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shenyang Urban?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture