Hangzhou Greentown 1-1 Shanghai Shenhua – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hangzhou Greentown at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 2 as Hangzhou Greentown welcome Shanghai Shenhua to Huizhou Olympic Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 March 2026 at 07:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 2W 7D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D D D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Hangzhou Greentown's home record at Huizhou Olympic Stadium: 3W 6D 1L from 10 Super League appearances (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shanghai Shenhua stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Super League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Shanghai Shenhua's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Shanghai Shenhua — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hangzhou Greentown register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Shanghai Shenhua in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Hangzhou Greentown have won 2, Shanghai Shenhua 4, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Hangzhou Greentown trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
Shanghai Shenhua trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hangzhou Greentown 67% and Shanghai Shenhua 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hangzhou Greentown 77% | Shanghai Shenhua 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 1.83 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.072 / defence 0.907 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.098 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.893 / away 1.342. Data: 31 Hangzhou Greentown games / 31 Shanghai Shenhua games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 48% | Draw 25% | Shanghai Shenhua 27%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Shanghai Shenhua 3.70. Hangzhou Greentown hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hangzhou Greentown at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Shanghai Shenhua (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hangzhou Greentown offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.17 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Hangzhou Greentown 80% | Shanghai Shenhua 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Huizhou Olympic Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Mar 2026, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 48% | Draw 25% | Shanghai Shenhua 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Hangzhou Greentown 1.83 / Shanghai Shenhua 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.072 / def 0.907 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.098 / def 0.904 | league avg home 1.893 / away 1.342 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Shanghai Shenhua xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Huizhou Olympic Stadium.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Hangzhou Greentown 1 - 1 Shanghai Shenhua.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua being played?
The match is being played at Huizhou Olympic Stadium.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 48% chance of winning, Shanghai Shenhua a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Shanghai Shenhua will score (BTTS).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Shanghai Shenhua?
Record (8 meetings): Hangzhou Greentown 2W | Draws 2 | Shanghai Shenhua 4W.
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Shanghai Shenhua in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-D-L-D. Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Hangzhou Greentown's attack rating (1.07) and Shanghai Shenhua's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.83 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shanghai Shenhua's attack versus Hangzhou Greentown's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
48%
2.08
25%
4.02
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
3.17
1.34
Shanghai Shenhua xG
2.08
48%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
16%
6.26
Win to Nil
13%
7.91
4%
23.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.3 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Shanghai Shenhua expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 1.34 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Hangzhou Greentown have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 21W 17D 22L record — D-D-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Shanghai Shenhua's form line: 43W 12D 5L from 60 games, 2.35 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W.
Put side by side, Shanghai Shenhua are the form team by 1.02 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hangzhou Greentown.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hangzhou Greentown have posted 1.77 PPG from 30 outings (14W 11D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Hangzhou Greentown are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 21W 5D 4L from 30 away games — 2.27 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shanghai Shenhua come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Shanghai Shenhua are on 2.33 scored and 0.92 conceded. Hangzhou Greentown's scoring rate against Shanghai Shenhua's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Hangzhou Greentown have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
Shanghai Shenhua
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Shanghai Shenhua in coming into this match?
Hangzhou Greentown have gone 21W 17D 22L in their last 60 games (1.33 PPG), while Shanghai Shenhua have gone 43W 12D 5L in their last 60 (2.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hangzhou Greentown at home or Shanghai Shenhua away?
Shanghai Shenhua's away record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hangzhou Greentown at home: 1.77 PPG; Shanghai Shenhua away: 2.27 PPG.
Have Hangzhou Greentown or Shanghai Shenhua been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hangzhou Greentown have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Shanghai Shenhua in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hangzhou Greentown and Shanghai Shenhua runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 5 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 May 2024, when Shanghai Shenhua won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hangzhou Greentown's record when hosting Shanghai Shenhua specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Hangzhou Greentown
3
Draws
5
Shanghai Shenhua
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Shanghai Shenhua?
From 10 meetings on record, Hangzhou Greentown have won 2, Shanghai Shenhua have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Shanghai Shenhua last play each other?
They last met on 5 July 2026, when Shanghai Shenhua 3-2 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between Hangzhou Greentown and Shanghai Shenhua?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hangzhou Greentown at 80%, Shanghai Shenhua at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Hangzhou Greentown and 53% for Shanghai Shenhua. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 70% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shanghai Shenhua in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Shanghai Shenhua away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hangzhou Greentown play Shanghai Shenhua?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Hangzhou Greentown's games and 50% of Shanghai Shenhua's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Hangzhou Greentown's matches and 53% of Shanghai Shenhua's.
Do Hangzhou Greentown and Shanghai Shenhua tend to score early?
Hangzhou Greentown have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Shanghai Shenhua in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hangzhou Greentown and Shanghai Shenhua share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Huizhou Olympic Stadium, Regular Season - 2, as Hangzhou Greentown and Shanghai Shenhua drew 1-1 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 1.83 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.34 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Hangzhou Greentown fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.07 / defence 0.91 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.10 / defence 0.90, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 48% | Draw 25% | Shanghai Shenhua 27%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 77%, Shanghai Shenhua 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.