Shandong Luneng 2-1 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shandong Luneng at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Beijing Guoan make the trip to Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium to face Shandong Luneng in Super League, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 March 2026 at 07:30 UTC.
Current Form
Shandong Luneng's overall Super League record this term: 6W 4D 0L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Shandong Luneng's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 games at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Beijing Guoan (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Beijing Guoan's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Form favours the hosts. Shandong Luneng's 2.20 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Beijing Guoan's 1.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Shandong Luneng, 2 for Beijing Guoan and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2025, ended 6–0 with Shandong Luneng winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Shandong Luneng — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Beijing Guoan — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Shandong Luneng 62% and Beijing Guoan 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Shandong Luneng 67% | Beijing Guoan 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 1.72 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 1.154 / defence 0.828 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.138 / defence 0.789. League average goals — home 1.893 / away 1.342. Beijing Guoan's defence strength of 0.789 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 31 Shandong Luneng games / 31 Beijing Guoan games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 47% | Draw 26% | Beijing Guoan 27%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Beijing Guoan 3.70. Shandong Luneng hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shandong Luneng at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shandong Luneng if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Shandong Luneng 80% | Beijing Guoan 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Mar 2026, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 47% | Draw 26% | Beijing Guoan 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Shandong Luneng 1.72 / Beijing Guoan 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Shandong Luneng attack 1.154 / def 0.828 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.138 / def 0.789 | league avg home 1.893 / away 1.342 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Shandong Luneng xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Beijing Guoan xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan?
Shandong Luneng 2 - 1 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Shandong Luneng a 47% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Shandong Luneng and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Beijing Guoan?
Record (8 meetings): Shandong Luneng 3W | Draws 3 | Beijing Guoan 2W.
What form are Shandong Luneng and Beijing Guoan in?
Shandong Luneng (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Beijing Guoan (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Shandong Luneng's attack at 1.15x the league average against Beijing Guoan's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Beijing Guoan's attack (1.14x) against Shandong Luneng's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
47%
2.12
26%
3.87
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Shandong Luneng xG
Total xG
2.99
1.26
Beijing Guoan xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
18%
5.61
Win to Nil
13%
7.52
5%
20.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.0 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Shandong Luneng and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 1.26 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shandong Luneng's recent record stands at 28W 17D 15L from 60 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-W in the last five.
Beijing Guoan, meanwhile, have gone 33W 14D 13L across 60 games — 1.88 PPG, with W-L-L-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.68 PPG for Shandong Luneng against 1.88 for Beijing Guoan. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Shandong Luneng have managed 18W 7D 5L from 30 games — 2.03 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Beijing Guoan's away record stands at 13W 9D 8L across 30 trips, a 1.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shandong Luneng are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 2.23 scored and 1.35 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Shandong Luneng have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Beijing Guoan in 65%.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shandong Luneng
Current Season
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shandong Luneng and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Shandong Luneng have gone 28W 17D 15L in their last 60 games (1.68 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 33W 14D 13L in their last 60 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shandong Luneng at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Shandong Luneng's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shandong Luneng at home: 2.03 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 4 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shandong Luneng won 6-0 on 31 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shandong Luneng have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Beijing Guoan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Shandong Luneng
3
Draws
3
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Beijing Guoan?
From 10 meetings on record, Shandong Luneng have won 4, Beijing Guoan have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shandong Luneng and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2026, when Beijing Guoan 2-0 Shandong Luneng.
Who has won more matches between Shandong Luneng and Beijing Guoan?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shandong Luneng 57%, Beijing Guoan 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Shandong Luneng and 60% for Beijing Guoan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shandong Luneng home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shandong Luneng play Beijing Guoan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Shandong Luneng's games and 60% of Beijing Guoan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shandong Luneng vs Beijing Guoan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Shandong Luneng's matches and 60% of Beijing Guoan's.
Do Shandong Luneng and Beijing Guoan tend to score early?
Shandong Luneng have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Beijing Guoan in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shandong Luneng edge out Beijing Guoan 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Beijing Guoan 2-1 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 1.72 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.26 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 1.15 / defence 0.83 against Beijing Guoan attack 1.14 / defence 0.79, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 47% | Draw 26% | Beijing Guoan 27%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 67%, Beijing Guoan 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shandong Luneng 1.68 PPG, Beijing Guoan 1.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shandong Luneng win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.