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Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SHANGHAI SIPG vs Henan Jianye encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

SHANGHAI SIPG and Henan Jianye meet at Pudong Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 March 2026 at 11:35 UTC.

Form

SHANGHAI SIPG (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

SHANGHAI SIPG at Pudong Football Stadium this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Henan Jianye's overall Super League record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Henan Jianye away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.20 PPG for SHANGHAI SIPG against 1.80 for Henan Jianye. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — SHANGHAI SIPG register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Henan Jianye in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H History

The head-to-head record favours SHANGHAI SIPG, who have won 6 of the last 8 meetings against Henan Jianye — a 0D 2W return for the visitors.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2025, ended 4–1 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both SHANGHAI SIPG and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Statistical Overview

SHANGHAI SIPG's cumulative Super League record this campaign: 20W 6D 4L from 30 matches. Attacking returns: 2.4 goals per game; defensive: 1.5 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 4-1 (H) / 1-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-3 (H) / 4-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 4 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. 5 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 2 away). Scored 2+ goals in 15 of 30 games (50%). Penalties this season: 6 scored / 0 missed from 6 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards per game, 0.07 reds per game.

On the season-wide numbers, Henan Jianye show 10W 7D 13L from 30 outings in Super League. They average 1.7 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 2-5 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-3 (H) / 4-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 4 games this season. 5 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 2 away). Scored 2+ goals in 7 of 30 games (23%). Penalties this season: 10 scored / 0 missed from 10 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards per game, 0.07 reds per game.

SHANGHAI SIPG have the stronger attack on season averages, scoring 2.40 per game versus 1.70 for the visitors. SHANGHAI SIPG score 2+ goals far more often (50% vs 23%) — a meaningful difference for goal-line markets. Penalty activity: SHANGHAI SIPG 6/6 vs Henan Jianye 10/10 this season.

Trading & In-Play

SHANGHAI SIPG — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 60%.

Henan Jianye — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SHANGHAI SIPG 70% and Henan Jianye 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SHANGHAI SIPG 77% | Henan Jianye 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 2.00 xG and Henan Jianye 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.100 / defence 0.966 | Henan Jianye attack 1.032 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.895 / away 1.401. Data: 30 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 30 Henan Jianye games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 51% | Draw 23% | Henan Jianye 26%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 1.96 | Draw 4.35 | Henan Jianye 3.85. SHANGHAI SIPG hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.00 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SHANGHAI SIPG if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 3.40 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SHANGHAI SIPG 80% | Henan Jianye 80% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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