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Poisson model rates Sichuan Jiuniu at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sichuan Jiuniu vs Tianjin Teda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Sichuan Jiuniu host Tianjin Teda at Longquanyi Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 March 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Sichuan Jiuniu — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, Sichuan Jiuniu have posted 4W 1D 5L at Longquanyi Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Tianjin Teda stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Sichuan Jiuniu) versus 1.40 (Tianjin Teda). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sichuan Jiuniu register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Tianjin Teda in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Sichuan Jiuniu, 3 for Tianjin Teda and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with Tianjin Teda winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Season Statistics

Across 30 matches this season, Tianjin Teda have gone 12W 8D 10L. Attacking returns: 1.3 goals per game; defensive: 1.4 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 3-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-4 (H) / 3-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 7 games this season. 8 clean sheets this season (8 at home, 0 away). Scored 2+ goals in 2 of 30 games (7%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 0 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 5-4-1. Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards per game.

In-Play Data

Sichuan Jiuniu trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.

Tianjin Teda trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sichuan Jiuniu 57% versus Tianjin Teda 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sichuan Jiuniu 63% | Tianjin Teda 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 1.78 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.988 / defence 1.024 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.952 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.832 / away 1.272. Data: 31 Sichuan Jiuniu games / 31 Tianjin Teda games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.

Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 49% | Draw 26% | Tianjin Teda 25%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Tianjin Teda 4.00. Sichuan Jiuniu hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Sichuan Jiuniu are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sichuan Jiuniu offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sichuan Jiuniu 80% | Tianjin Teda 60% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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