Shandong Luneng 1-2 Dalian Zhixing – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Shandong Luneng at 77% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Zhixing encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Shandong Luneng host Dalian Zhixing at Jinan Olympic Sports Center in Super League (matchday 4). Kick-off is Saturday 4 April 2026 at 12:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Shandong Luneng — last 10 games: 6W 4D 0L, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

In front of their own supporters, Shandong Luneng have posted 8W 2D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Dalian Zhixing stand at 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

When travelling, Dalian Zhixing have posted 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On current form, Shandong Luneng have the edge — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Shandong Luneng's games and 60% of Dalian Zhixing's (from Shandong Luneng's last 10 home games and Dalian Zhixing's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Shandong Luneng have won 1, Dalian Zhixing 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 19 Jul 2025, ended Shandong Luneng 0–2 Dalian Zhixing — a Dalian Zhixing win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Shandong Luneng trading profile (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 57%.

Dalian Zhixing trading profile (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shandong Luneng 73% versus Dalian Zhixing 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shandong Luneng 77% | Dalian Zhixing 33%). Note also that Dalian Zhixing surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Shandong Luneng recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 3.13 xG and Dalian Zhixing 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 1.164 / defence 0.891 | Dalian Zhixing attack 1.140 / defence 1.410. League average goals — home 1.904 / away 1.103. Dalian Zhixing's defence rating of 1.410 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Shandong Luneng's projected output up. Data: built from Shandong Luneng's last 33 games and Dalian Zhixing's last 33. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 77% | Draw 13% | Dalian Zhixing 10%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 1.30 | Draw 7.70 | Dalian Zhixing 9.86. The model has a clear lean to Shandong Luneng (77%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 80% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 4.25. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 80% — a total xG of 4.25 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (3.13 / 1.12) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Shandong Luneng as the most likely outcome at 77% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

On the goals line, Poisson's 4.25 combined xG gives a 80% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Shandong Luneng's last 10 home games and Dalian Zhixing's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Shandong Luneng 80% (last 10 home games) | Dalian Zhixing 60% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Shandong Luneng 33 games, Dalian Zhixing 33) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights