Qingdao Jonoon 1-0 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Henan Jianye (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Qingdao Jonoon face Henan Jianye.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Qingdao Jonoon host Henan Jianye at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 4 April 2026 at 07:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Qingdao Jonoon's home record at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Henan Jianye stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Henan Jianye's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Henan Jianye — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Qingdao Jonoon, 3 for Henan Jianye and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Qingdao Jonoon in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 45% of games.
Henan Jianye in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 43% versus Henan Jianye 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 42% | Henan Jianye 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.49 xG and Henan Jianye 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.906 / defence 1.326 | Henan Jianye attack 1.132 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.908 / away 1.153. Data: 33 Qingdao Jonoon games / 33 Henan Jianye games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 33% | Draw 23% | Henan Jianye 44%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 3.03 | Draw 4.35 | Henan Jianye 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.73) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Henan Jianye at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.22 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Qingdao Jonoon 50% | Henan Jianye 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Jonoon vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Qingdao Youth Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Apr 2026, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 33% | Draw 23% | Henan Jianye 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Qingdao Jonoon 1.49 / Henan Jianye 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.906 / def 1.326 | Henan Jianye attack 1.132 / def 0.862 | league avg home 1.908 / away 1.153 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Henan Jianye xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Jonoon vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 4 April 2026 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Henan Jianye?
Qingdao Jonoon 1 - 0 Henan Jianye.
Where is Qingdao Jonoon vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Jonoon vs Henan Jianye part of?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Jonoon vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Jonoon a 33% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 44% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Qingdao Jonoon and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Jonoon vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Henan Jianye?
Record (6 meetings): Qingdao Jonoon 1W | Draws 2 | Henan Jianye 3W.
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Henan Jianye in?
Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Henan Jianye (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Qingdao Jonoon's attack at 0.91x the league average against Henan Jianye's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Henan Jianye's attack versus Qingdao Jonoon's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
33%
3.00
23%
4.32
44%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Total xG
3.22
1.73
Henan Jianye xG
3.00
33%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
2.30
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
18%
5.64
23%
4.44
Win to Nil
6%
16.93
10%
10.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.9 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.3 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.7 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Jonoon vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Qingdao Jonoon and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 1.73 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Jonoon vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Qingdao Jonoon come into this having played 60 games, going 13W 15D 32L for 0.90 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-D.
On the other side, Henan Jianye sit at 1.22 PPG from 60 outings (19W 16D 25L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Qingdao Jonoon on 0.90 PPG, Henan Jianye on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Qingdao Jonoon's home form reads 10W 9D 11L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.90 PPG overall — Qingdao Jonoon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Henan Jianye have taken 1.00 points per game from 30 outings (7W 9D 14L).
The Goals Picture
Qingdao Jonoon are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 1.43 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Henan Jianye in 63%.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Jonoon
Current Season
Henan Jianye
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Qingdao Jonoon have gone 13W 15D 32L in their last 60 games (0.90 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 19W 16D 25L in their last 60 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Jonoon at home or Henan Jianye away?
Qingdao Jonoon's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Jonoon at home: 1.30 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Qingdao Jonoon and Henan Jianye runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 17 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jul 2026, when Henan Jianye won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Qingdao Jonoon's record when hosting Henan Jianye specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Qingdao Jonoon
2
Draws
4
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Henan Jianye?
From 8 meetings on record, Qingdao Jonoon have won 2, Henan Jianye have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Jonoon and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 17 July 2026, when Henan Jianye 5-1 Qingdao Jonoon.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Jonoon and Henan Jianye?
Henan Jianye have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Jonoon 50%, Henan Jianye 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Qingdao Jonoon) and 53% (Henan Jianye).
On the defensive side: Qingdao Jonoon have failed to score in 30% of games; Henan Jianye in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Jonoon home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Jonoon play Henan Jianye?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Qingdao Jonoon's games and 63% of Henan Jianye's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Qingdao Jonoon vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent games and 53% of Henan Jianye's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Qingdao Jonoon and Henan Jianye tend to score early?
Qingdao Jonoon have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Henan Jianye in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Qingdao Jonoon defy the odds to beat Henan Jianye 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Qingdao Jonoon beat Henan Jianye 1-0 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 1.49 xG and Henan Jianye 1.73 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Henan Jianye landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.91 / defence 1.33 against Henan Jianye attack 1.13 / defence 0.86, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 33% | Draw 23% | Henan Jianye 44%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Qingdao Jonoon win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Jonoon 42%, Henan Jianye 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Qingdao Jonoon 0.90 PPG, Henan Jianye 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Qingdao Jonoon win broke the near-deadlock. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.