📋

Poisson model favours Henan Jianye (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Qingdao Jonoon face Henan Jianye.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Qingdao Jonoon host Henan Jianye at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 4 April 2026 at 07:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Super League games this season, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Qingdao Jonoon's home record at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Henan Jianye stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Henan Jianye's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Henan Jianye — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Qingdao Jonoon, 3 for Henan Jianye and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Team Stats

The visitors have accumulated 10W 7D 13L from their 30 Super League appearances this term. Attacking returns: 1.7 goals per game; defensive: 1.6 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 2-5 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-3 (H) / 4-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 4 games this season. 5 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 2 away). Scored 2+ goals in 7 of 30 games (23%). Penalties this season: 10 scored / 0 missed from 10 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards per game, 0.07 reds per game.

Trading Patterns

Qingdao Jonoon in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 45% of games.

Henan Jianye in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 43% versus Henan Jianye 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 42% | Henan Jianye 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.49 xG and Henan Jianye 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.906 / defence 1.326 | Henan Jianye attack 1.132 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.908 / away 1.153. Data: 33 Qingdao Jonoon games / 33 Henan Jianye games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.

Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 33% | Draw 23% | Henan Jianye 44%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 3.03 | Draw 4.35 | Henan Jianye 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.73) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Henan Jianye at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.22 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Qingdao Jonoon 50% | Henan Jianye 80% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights