Poisson model rates Hangzhou Greentown at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hangzhou Greentown vs Chongqing Tongliang Long fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Chongqing Tongliang Long make the trip to Huzhou Olympic Sports Centre to face Hangzhou Greentown in Super League, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 07:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hangzhou Greentown have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 2W 7D 1L. Last five: D D D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Huzhou Olympic Sports Centre, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 3W 6D 1L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 1.67 xG and Chongqing Tongliang Long 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.955 / defence 0.946 | Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.739 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.865 / away 1.115. Data: 33 Hangzhou Greentown games / 3 Chongqing Tongliang Long games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 59% | Draw 24% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 17%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | Chongqing Tongliang Long 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Hangzhou Greentown (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hangzhou Greentown are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Chongqing Tongliang Long | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Huzhou Olympic Sports Centre • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Apr 2026, 07:30 UTC • Manager edge: Chongqing Tongliang Long led by Salvador Suay • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset
📈 Recent Form
• Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-D-L-D • Hangzhou Greentown home split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 2.20 / GA 1.80 | CS 2
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 59% | Draw 24% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 44% | xG Hangzhou Greentown 1.67 / Chongqing Tongliang Long 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.955 / def 0.946 | Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.739 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.865 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (59%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
44%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Chongqing Tongliang Long kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Chongqing Tongliang Long kicked off at 07:30 on Sunday 5 April 2026 at Huzhou Olympic Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Hangzhou Greentown 0 - 1 Chongqing Tongliang Long.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Chongqing Tongliang Long being played?
The match is being played at Huzhou Olympic Sports Centre.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Chongqing Tongliang Long part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Chongqing Tongliang Long is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 59% chance of winning, Chongqing Tongliang Long a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Chongqing Tongliang Long will score (BTTS).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Chongqing Tongliang Long have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Chongqing Tongliang Long?
• No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Chongqing Tongliang Long in?
• Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-D-L-D • Hangzhou Greentown home split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 2.20 / GA 1.80 | CS 2
What do the betting odds say about Hangzhou Greentown vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture