Hangzhou Greentown 0-1 Chongqing Tongliang Long – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hangzhou Greentown at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hangzhou Greentown vs Chongqing Tongliang Long fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Chongqing Tongliang Long make the trip to Huizhou Olympic Stadium to face Hangzhou Greentown in Super League, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 07:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hangzhou Greentown have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 2W 7D 1L. Last five: D D D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Huizhou Olympic Stadium, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 3W 6D 1L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 1.67 xG and Chongqing Tongliang Long 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.955 / defence 0.946 | Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.739 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.865 / away 1.115. Data: 33 Hangzhou Greentown games / 3 Chongqing Tongliang Long games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 59% | Draw 24% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 17%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | Chongqing Tongliang Long 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Hangzhou Greentown (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hangzhou Greentown are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Chongqing Tongliang Long | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Huizhou Olympic Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Apr 2026, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 59% | Draw 24% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 44% | xG Hangzhou Greentown 1.67 / Chongqing Tongliang Long 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.955 / def 0.946 | Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.739 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.865 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
44%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Chongqing Tongliang Long kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Chongqing Tongliang Long kicked off at 07:30 on Sunday 5 April 2026 at Huizhou Olympic Stadium.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Hangzhou Greentown 0 - 1 Chongqing Tongliang Long.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Chongqing Tongliang Long being played?
The match is being played at Huizhou Olympic Stadium.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Chongqing Tongliang Long part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Chongqing Tongliang Long is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 59% chance of winning, Chongqing Tongliang Long a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Chongqing Tongliang Long will score (BTTS).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Chongqing Tongliang Long have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Chongqing Tongliang Long?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Chongqing Tongliang Long in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-D-L-D. Hangzhou Greentown home split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 2.20 / GA 1.80 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Hangzhou Greentown's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Chongqing Tongliang Long's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. Flip it around — Chongqing Tongliang Long's attack (0.74x) against Hangzhou Greentown's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 33/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.7%), 2-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
59%
1.70
24%
4.15
17%
5.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
2.45
0.78
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
5.81
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
19%
5.33
Win to Nil
27%
3.71
3%
30.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 11.2 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.4 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.7 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Chongqing Tongliang Long expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 0.78 for Chongqing Tongliang Long, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Pre-Season
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since April 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Hangzhou Greentown
1
Draws
1
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Chongqing Tongliang Long?
From 2 meetings on record, Hangzhou Greentown have won 0, Chongqing Tongliang Long have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Chongqing Tongliang Long last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Chongqing Tongliang Long 1-1 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between Hangzhou Greentown and Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Chongqing Tongliang Long have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Chongqing Tongliang Long away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Chongqing Tongliang Long defy the odds to beat Hangzhou Greentown 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chongqing Tongliang Long beat Hangzhou Greentown 0-1 at Huizhou Olympic Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 1.67 xG and Chongqing Tongliang Long 0.78 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Hangzhou Greentown fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.95 / defence 0.95 against Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.74 / defence 0.94, drawn from 33/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 59% | Draw 24% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 17%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Chongqing Tongliang Long win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.