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Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Tianjin Teda and Shanghai Shenhua meet at TEDA Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 11:35 UTC.

Current Form

Tianjin Teda's overall Super League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Tianjin Teda's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at TEDA Football Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at TEDA Football Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Tianjin Teda are significantly better at TEDA Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Shanghai Shenhua (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Shanghai Shenhua's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Shanghai Shenhua arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Tianjin Teda 2W, Shanghai Shenhua 4W, 3D.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 1–3 with Shanghai Shenhua winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Statistical Overview

Tianjin Teda's cumulative Super League record this campaign: 12W 8D 10L from 30 matches. Attacking returns: 1.3 goals per game; defensive: 1.4 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 3-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-4 (H) / 3-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 7 games this season. 8 clean sheets this season (8 at home, 0 away). Scored 2+ goals in 2 of 30 games (7%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 0 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 5-4-1. Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards per game.

On the season-wide numbers, Shanghai Shenhua show 19W 7D 4L from 30 outings in Super League. Attacking returns: 2.2 goals per game; defensive: 1.2 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 6-1 (H) / 0-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-2 (H) / 3-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 4 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. They have failed to score in 3 games this season. 8 clean sheets this season (4 at home, 4 away). Scored 2+ goals in 14 of 30 games (47%). Penalties this season: 6 scored / 0 missed from 6 awarded. Most used formation: 4-3-1-2. Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards per game.

Shanghai Shenhua have been the more prolific side this season at 2.20 goals per game compared to 1.30 for the hosts. Shanghai Shenhua score 2+ goals far more often (47% vs 7%) — a meaningful difference for goal-line markets. Penalty activity: Tianjin Teda 4/4 vs Shanghai Shenhua 6/6 this season.

Trading

Tianjin Teda half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

Shanghai Shenhua half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 57% versus Shanghai Shenhua 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 58% | Shanghai Shenhua 65%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.26 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.822 / defence 0.891 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.046 / defence 0.808. League average goals — home 1.900 / away 1.147. Data: 33 Tianjin Teda games / 33 Shanghai Shenhua games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 41% | Draw 28% | Shanghai Shenhua 31%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Shanghai Shenhua 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Tianjin Teda as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Shanghai Shenhua (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Tianjin Teda 30% | Shanghai Shenhua 60% BTTS from recent games.

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