Poisson model rates Yunnan Yukun at 52%, yet in-form Shandong Luneng provide a compelling counter-argument — this Yunnan Yukun vs Shandong Luneng fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Shandong Luneng travel to Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium to take on Yunnan Yukun. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 March 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Yunnan Yukun — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Yunnan Yukun's home record at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Super League appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Yunnan Yukun are significantly better at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shandong Luneng stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 Super League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Super League this season, Shandong Luneng have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Shandong Luneng are 0.60 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Yunnan Yukun, 0 for Shandong Luneng and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Key Season Stats
On the season-wide numbers, Yunnan Yukun show 11W 9D 10L from 30 outings in Super League. Their scoring output is 1.6 per match with 1.7 conceded on average. Biggest win: 3-1 (H) / 1-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-5 (H) / 5-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 3 games this season. 7 clean sheets this season (4 at home, 3 away). Scored 2+ goals in 5 of 30 games (17%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 0 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 4-1-4-1. Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards per game, 0.10 reds per game.
Shandong Luneng's cumulative Super League record this campaign: 15W 8D 7L from 30 matches. They average 2.3 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game. Biggest win: 6-0 (H) / 1-5 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-3 (H) / 6-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 4 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 4 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 5 games this season. 4 clean sheets this season (4 at home, 0 away). Scored 2+ goals in 13 of 30 games (43%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 0 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 3-4-2-1. Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards per game, 0.23 reds per game.
Shandong Luneng have been the more prolific side this season at 2.30 goals per game compared to 1.60 for the hosts. Yunnan Yukun lead on clean sheets this season (7 vs 4). Shandong Luneng score 2+ goals far more often (43% vs 17%) — a meaningful difference for goal-line markets. Penalty activity: Yunnan Yukun 4/4 vs Shandong Luneng 4/4 this season.
In-Play Data
Yunnan Yukun trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Shandong Luneng trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 87% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Yunnan Yukun 73% and Shandong Luneng 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Yunnan Yukun 53% | Shandong Luneng 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yunnan Yukun 2.03 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yunnan Yukun attack 1.114 / defence 1.009 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.183 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.812 / away 1.189. Data: 32 Yunnan Yukun games / 32 Shandong Luneng games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 52% | Draw 21% | Shandong Luneng 27%. Fair-value odds: Yunnan Yukun 1.92 | Draw 4.76 | Shandong Luneng 3.70. Yunnan Yukun hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.03 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Yunnan Yukun are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Shandong Luneng (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.45 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Yunnan Yukun 70% | Shandong Luneng 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yunnan Yukun vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Mar 2026, 12:00 UTC • Manager edge: Shandong Luneng led by Choi Kang-Hee • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (2 meetings): Yunnan Yukun 1W | Draws 1 | Shandong Luneng 0W • Goals trend: 3.50 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Yunnan Yukun 4 – 3 Shandong Luneng • H2H markets: BTTS 100% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Yunnan Yukun 50% / Draw 50% / Shandong Luneng 0% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 52% / draw 21% / away 27% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 3.50 goals/game (50% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 3.45 (67% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 100%, Poisson BTTS probability 66% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
📈 Recent Form
• Yunnan Yukun (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-D • Shandong Luneng (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-W-W • Yunnan Yukun home split: 2.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | CS 3 • Shandong Luneng away split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | CS 0 • Form edge: Shandong Luneng lead by 0.60 PPG (2.20 vs 1.60) • xG vs form (Yunnan Yukun): Poisson xG of 2.03 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.90 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Shandong Luneng): Poisson projects 1.42 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.90 — model applies a discount on visitor output; home side's defensive record is the key factor • Goals margin: form ~2.7 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.45 (67% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: strong YES — form rates Yunnan Yukun 7/10, Shandong Luneng 8/10; Poisson BTTS probability 66% — all signals aligned • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours Shandong Luneng on PPG but Poisson rates Yunnan Yukun higher (52% vs 27% for Shandong Luneng) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 52% | Draw 21% | Shandong Luneng 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 66% | xG Yunnan Yukun 2.03 / Shandong Luneng 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Yunnan Yukun attack 1.114 / def 1.009 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.183 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.812 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Yunnan Yukun (52%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Yunnan Yukun xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Shandong Luneng xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yunnan Yukun vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Yunnan Yukun vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 21 March 2026 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Yunnan Yukun vs Shandong Luneng?
Yunnan Yukun 4 - 0 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Yunnan Yukun vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Yunnan Yukun vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Yunnan Yukun vs Shandong Luneng is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Yunnan Yukun vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Yunnan Yukun a 52% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 27% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Yunnan Yukun the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yunnan Yukun vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Yunnan Yukun and Shandong Luneng will score (BTTS).
Will Yunnan Yukun vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yunnan Yukun and Shandong Luneng?
• Record (2 meetings): Yunnan Yukun 1W | Draws 1 | Shandong Luneng 0W • Goals trend: 3.50 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Yunnan Yukun 4 – 3 Shandong Luneng • H2H markets: BTTS 100% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Yunnan Yukun 50% / Draw 50% / Shandong Luneng 0% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 52% / draw 21% / away 27% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 3.50 goals/game (50% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 3.45 (67% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 100%, Poisson BTTS probability 66% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
What form are Yunnan Yukun and Shandong Luneng in?
• Yunnan Yukun (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-D • Shandong Luneng (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-W-W • Yunnan Yukun home split: 2.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | CS 3 • Shandong Luneng away split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | CS 0 • Form edge: Shandong Luneng lead by 0.60 PPG (2.20 vs 1.60) • xG vs form (Yunnan Yukun): Poisson xG of 2.03 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.90 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Shandong Luneng): Poisson projects 1.42 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.90 — model applies a discount on visitor output; home side's defensive record is the key factor • Goals margin: form ~2.7 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.45 (67% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: strong YES — form rates Yunnan Yukun 7/10, Shandong Luneng 8/10; Poisson BTTS probability 66% — all signals aligned • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours Shandong Luneng on PPG but Poisson rates Yunnan Yukun higher (52% vs 27% for Shandong Luneng) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
What do the betting odds say about Yunnan Yukun vs Shandong Luneng?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture