Henan Jianye 0-1 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium plays host to Henan Jianye versus Shandong Luneng in Super League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 11:35 UTC.

Current Form

Henan Jianye's overall Super League record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, Henan Jianye have posted 5W 4D 1L at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Shandong Luneng have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

When travelling in Super League this season, Shandong Luneng have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 2.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Henan Jianye register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Shandong Luneng in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Henan Jianye, 3 for Shandong Luneng and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.9 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Jun 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Henan Jianye half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

Shandong Luneng half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Henan Jianye 63% and Shandong Luneng 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 55% | Shandong Luneng 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 2.01 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.901 / defence 0.965 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.015 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 1.932 / away 1.157. Data: 34 Henan Jianye games / 34 Shandong Luneng games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 58% | Draw 21% | Shandong Luneng 21%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 1.72 | Draw 4.76 | Shandong Luneng 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Henan Jianye (58%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Henan Jianye are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.15 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Henan Jianye 70% | Shandong Luneng 80% BTTS from recent games.

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