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Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium plays host to Henan Jianye versus Shandong Luneng in Super League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 11:35 UTC.

Current Form

Henan Jianye's overall Super League record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, Henan Jianye have posted 5W 4D 1L at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Shandong Luneng have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

When travelling in Super League this season, Shandong Luneng have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 2.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Henan Jianye register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Shandong Luneng in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

Stats

Across 30 matches this season, Henan Jianye have gone 10W 7D 13L. Their scoring output is 1.7 per match with 1.6 conceded on average. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 2-5 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-3 (H) / 4-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 4 games this season. 5 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 2 away). Scored 2+ goals in 7 of 30 games (23%). Penalties this season: 10 scored / 0 missed from 10 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards per game, 0.07 reds per game.

Trading

Henan Jianye half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

Shandong Luneng half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Henan Jianye 63% and Shandong Luneng 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 55% | Shandong Luneng 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 2.01 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.901 / defence 0.965 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.015 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 1.932 / away 1.157. Data: 34 Henan Jianye games / 34 Shandong Luneng games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 58% | Draw 21% | Shandong Luneng 21%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 1.72 | Draw 4.76 | Shandong Luneng 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Henan Jianye (58%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Henan Jianye are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.15 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Henan Jianye 70% | Shandong Luneng 80% BTTS from recent games.

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