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Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SHANGHAI SIPG vs Yunnan Yukun encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 4 as SHANGHAI SIPG welcome Yunnan Yukun to Pudong Football Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 April 2026 at 11:35 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Super League games this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

In front of their own supporters this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have posted 6W 3D 1L at Pudong Football Stadium — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Yunnan Yukun stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

Yunnan Yukun's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

SHANGHAI SIPG are in the better shape of the two on current Super League data — 0.60 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for SHANGHAI SIPG, 0 for Yunnan Yukun and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 5.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2025, ended 4–2 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Key Season Stats

On the season-wide numbers, SHANGHAI SIPG show 20W 6D 4L from 30 outings in Super League. Their scoring output is 2.4 per match with 1.5 conceded on average. Biggest win: 4-1 (H) / 1-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-3 (H) / 4-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 4 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. 5 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 2 away). Scored 2+ goals in 15 of 30 games (50%). Penalties this season: 6 scored / 0 missed from 6 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards per game, 0.07 reds per game.

In-Play Data

SHANGHAI SIPG trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 60%.

Yunnan Yukun trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SHANGHAI SIPG 83% and Yunnan Yukun 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SHANGHAI SIPG 80% | Yunnan Yukun 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 2.21 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.150 / defence 1.094 | Yunnan Yukun attack 1.035 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.869 / away 1.121. Data: 33 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 33 Yunnan Yukun games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 59% | Draw 20% | Yunnan Yukun 21%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 1.69 | Draw 5.00 | Yunnan Yukun 4.76. The model has a clear lean to SHANGHAI SIPG (59%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.21 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is SHANGHAI SIPG at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.48 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SHANGHAI SIPG 80% | Yunnan Yukun 80% BTTS from recent games.

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