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Poisson model rates Shenyang Urban at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shenyang Urban vs Beijing Guoan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Shenyang Urban Construction University Stadium plays host to Shenyang Urban versus Beijing Guoan in Super League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Saturday 4 April 2026 at 07:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Beijing Guoan's overall Super League record this term: 5W 0D 5L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Beijing Guoan's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Shenyang Urban 1.64 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenyang Urban attack 1.032 / defence 1.003 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.142 / defence 0.832. League average goals — home 1.908 / away 1.153. Data: 3 Shenyang Urban games / 33 Beijing Guoan games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.

Result probabilities: Shenyang Urban 45% | Draw 24% | Beijing Guoan 31%. Fair-value odds: Shenyang Urban 2.22 | Draw 4.17 | Beijing Guoan 3.23. Shenyang Urban hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Shenyang Urban as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shenyang Urban if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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