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Poisson model rates Dalian Zhixing at 40%, yet in-form Hangzhou Greentown provide a compelling counter-argument — this Dalian Zhixing vs Hangzhou Greentown fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Hangzhou Greentown travel to Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium to take on Dalian Zhixing. The game is scheduled for Friday 10 April 2026, 11:35 UTC.

Form Guide

Dalian Zhixing — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Dalian Zhixing's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Dalian Zhixing are significantly better at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Across all Super League games this season, Hangzhou Greentown have recorded 2W 7D 1L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Hangzhou Greentown are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

Key Season Stats

On the season-wide numbers, Dalian Zhixing show 9W 9D 12L from 30 outings in Super League. They average 1.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game. Biggest win: 2-0 (H) / 0-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-3 (H) / 4-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 4 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 11 games this season. 8 clean sheets this season (7 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 1 of 30 games (3%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 0 missed from 2 awarded. Most used formation: 4-4-2. Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards per game, 0.10 reds per game.

Across 30 matches this season, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 10W 12D 8L. They average 2.0 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game. Biggest win: 3-0 (H) / 0-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 3-4 (H) / 3-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 4 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 5 games this season. 6 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 3 away). Scored 2+ goals in 10 of 30 games (33%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 0 missed from 2 awarded. Most used formation: 3-4-2-1. Discipline: 1.5 yellow cards per game, 0.13 reds per game.

Hangzhou Greentown have been the more prolific side this season at 2.00 goals per game compared to 1.00 for the hosts. Dalian Zhixing lead on clean sheets this season (8 vs 6). Hangzhou Greentown score 2+ goals far more often (33% vs 3%) — a meaningful difference for goal-line markets. Penalty activity: Dalian Zhixing 2/2 vs Hangzhou Greentown 2/2 this season.

In-Play Profile

Dalian Zhixing in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Hangzhou Greentown in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 57%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Zhixing 40% versus Hangzhou Greentown 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Zhixing 33% | Hangzhou Greentown 73%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Zhixing 1.45 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Zhixing attack 0.804 / defence 0.829 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.366 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.917 / away 1.190. Hangzhou Greentown have an above-average attack strength of 1.366 — the away xG of 1.35 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 34 Dalian Zhixing games / 34 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 40% | Draw 25% | Hangzhou Greentown 35%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Zhixing 2.50 | Draw 4.00 | Hangzhou Greentown 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Dalian Zhixing are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hangzhou Greentown (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dalian Zhixing offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Dalian Zhixing 10% | Hangzhou Greentown 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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