Dalian Zhixing 3-0 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dalian Zhixing at 40%, yet in-form Hangzhou Greentown provide a compelling counter-argument — this Dalian Zhixing vs Hangzhou Greentown fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Hangzhou Greentown travel to Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium to take on Dalian Zhixing. The game is scheduled for Friday 10 April 2026, 11:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Dalian Zhixing — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Dalian Zhixing's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Dalian Zhixing are significantly better at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Hangzhou Greentown have recorded 2W 7D 1L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Hangzhou Greentown are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Dalian Zhixing, 0 for Hangzhou Greentown and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 30 Jun 2025, ended 1–0 with Dalian Zhixing winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Dalian Zhixing in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Hangzhou Greentown in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Zhixing 40% versus Hangzhou Greentown 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Zhixing 33% | Hangzhou Greentown 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Zhixing 1.45 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Zhixing attack 0.804 / defence 0.829 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.366 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.917 / away 1.190. Hangzhou Greentown have an above-average attack strength of 1.366 — the away xG of 1.35 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 34 Dalian Zhixing games / 34 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 40% | Draw 25% | Hangzhou Greentown 35%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Zhixing 2.50 | Draw 4.00 | Hangzhou Greentown 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dalian Zhixing are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hangzhou Greentown (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dalian Zhixing offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Dalian Zhixing 10% | Hangzhou Greentown 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Zhixing vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 10 Apr 2026, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 40% | Draw 25% | Hangzhou Greentown 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Dalian Zhixing 1.45 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Zhixing attack 0.804 / def 0.829 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.366 / def 0.937 | league avg home 1.917 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Dalian Zhixing (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Dalian Zhixing xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Hangzhou Greentown xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalian Zhixing vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Dalian Zhixing vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 11:35 on Friday 10 April 2026 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Dalian Zhixing vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Dalian Zhixing 3 - 0 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Dalian Zhixing vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Zhixing vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Dalian Zhixing vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Zhixing vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Zhixing a 40% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Dalian Zhixing the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Zhixing vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Dalian Zhixing and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will Dalian Zhixing vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Zhixing and Hangzhou Greentown?
Record (2 meetings): Dalian Zhixing 1W | Draws 1 | Hangzhou Greentown 0W.
What form are Dalian Zhixing and Hangzhou Greentown in?
Dalian Zhixing (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Dalian Zhixing's attack at 0.80x the league average against Hangzhou Greentown's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hangzhou Greentown's attack versus Dalian Zhixing's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalian Zhixing Win
40%
2.53
25%
3.95
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Dalian Zhixing xG
Total xG
2.79
1.35
Hangzhou Greentown xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
24%
4.24
Win to Nil
10%
9.72
8%
12.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.9 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Zhixing vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Dalian Zhixing and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Dalian Zhixing and 1.35 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Zhixing vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dalian Zhixing's recent record stands at 9W 9D 12L from 30 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-L in the last five.
Hangzhou Greentown, meanwhile, have gone 10W 12D 8L across 30 games — 1.40 PPG, with D-D-D-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dalian Zhixing on 1.20 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Dalian Zhixing have managed 8W 2D 5L from 15 games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Dalian Zhixing are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Hangzhou Greentown's away record stands at 4W 4D 7L across 15 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dalian Zhixing come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dalian Zhixing are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 2.00 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hangzhou Greentown in 67%.
Last 30 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Zhixing
Current Season
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dalian Zhixing and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Dalian Zhixing have gone 9W 9D 12L in their last 30 games (1.20 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 10W 12D 8L in their last 30 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalian Zhixing at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
Dalian Zhixing's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalian Zhixing at home: 1.73 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dalian Zhixing and Hangzhou Greentown runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Apr 2026, when Dalian Zhixing won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dalian Zhixing's record when hosting Hangzhou Greentown specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Dalian Zhixing
1
Draws
1
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Zhixing and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 4 meetings on record, Dalian Zhixing have won 2, Hangzhou Greentown have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Zhixing and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Hangzhou Greentown 3-2 Dalian Zhixing.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Zhixing and Hangzhou Greentown?
Dalian Zhixing have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dalian Zhixing are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dalian Zhixing 20%, Hangzhou Greentown 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Dalian Zhixing) and 67% (Hangzhou Greentown).
On the defensive side: Dalian Zhixing keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Dalian Zhixing have failed to score in 40% of games; Hangzhou Greentown in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Zhixing home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dalian Zhixing play Hangzhou Greentown?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Dalian Zhixing's recent matches and 53% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dalian Zhixing vs Hangzhou Greentown usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Dalian Zhixing's recent games and 67% of Hangzhou Greentown's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dalian Zhixing and Hangzhou Greentown tend to score early?
Dalian Zhixing have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Hangzhou Greentown in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dalian Zhixing run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Hangzhou Greentown.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dalian Zhixing beat Hangzhou Greentown 3-0 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Zhixing 1.45 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.35 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Dalian Zhixing beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hangzhou Greentown landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Zhixing attack 0.80 / defence 0.83 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.37 / defence 0.94, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Zhixing 40% | Draw 25% | Hangzhou Greentown 35%, with Dalian Zhixing to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Zhixing 33%, Hangzhou Greentown 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dalian Zhixing's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dalian Zhixing 1.20 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dalian Zhixing win broke the near-deadlock. Dalian Zhixing (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.