Shandong Luneng 1-2 Dalian Zhixing – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shandong Luneng at 77% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Zhixing encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shandong Luneng host Dalian Zhixing at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 4 April 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Shandong Luneng — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shandong Luneng have posted 8W 2D 0L at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dalian Zhixing stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Super League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Super League this season, Dalian Zhixing have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Shandong Luneng have the edge — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Shandong Luneng register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Dalian Zhixing in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Shandong Luneng, 1 for Dalian Zhixing and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Jul 2025, ended 0–2 with Dalian Zhixing winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Shandong Luneng trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
Dalian Zhixing trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shandong Luneng 73% versus Dalian Zhixing 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shandong Luneng 77% | Dalian Zhixing 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 3.13 xG and Dalian Zhixing 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 1.164 / defence 0.891 | Dalian Zhixing attack 1.140 / defence 1.410. League average goals — home 1.904 / away 1.103. Dalian Zhixing bring a strong defensive rating of 1.410 — this is suppressing Shandong Luneng's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Shandong Luneng games / 33 Dalian Zhixing games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 77% | Draw 13% | Dalian Zhixing 10%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 1.30 | Draw 7.69 | Dalian Zhixing 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Shandong Luneng (77%) — a 67pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 80% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 4.25. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 80% — a total xG of 4.25 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (3.13 / 1.12) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shandong Luneng as the most likely outcome at 77% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.25 combined xG gives a 80% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shandong Luneng 80% | Dalian Zhixing 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Zhixing | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Apr 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 77% | Draw 13% | Dalian Zhixing 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 80% | BTTS 64% | xG Shandong Luneng 3.13 / Dalian Zhixing 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Shandong Luneng attack 1.164 / def 0.891 | Dalian Zhixing attack 1.140 / def 1.410 | league avg home 1.904 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (77%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.13
Shandong Luneng xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Dalian Zhixing xG
64%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Zhixing kick off?
Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Zhixing kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 4 April 2026 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Zhixing?
Shandong Luneng 1 - 2 Dalian Zhixing.
Where is Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Zhixing being played?
The match is being played at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Zhixing part of?
Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Zhixing is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our statistical model gives Shandong Luneng a 77% chance of winning, Dalian Zhixing a 10% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Shandong Luneng and Dalian Zhixing will score (BTTS).
Will Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Zhixing have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 80%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Dalian Zhixing?
Record (2 meetings): Shandong Luneng 1W | Draws 0 | Dalian Zhixing 1W.
What form are Shandong Luneng and Dalian Zhixing in?
Shandong Luneng (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Dalian Zhixing (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Shandong Luneng's attack at 1.16x the league average against Dalian Zhixing's defence at 1.41x — combine the two and it projects 3.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dalian Zhixing's attack versus Shandong Luneng's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 3-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (7.8%), 3-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
77%
1.30
13%
7.70
10%
9.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
3 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.13
Shandong Luneng xG
Total xG
4.25
1.12
Dalian Zhixing xG
1.30
77%
Home win
7.70
13%
Draw
9.86
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
80%
Over 2.5
1.25
20%
Under 2.5
5.00
61%
Over 3.5
1.64
39%
Under 3.5
2.56
42%
Over 4.5
2.38
58%
Under 4.5
1.72
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
4%
22.78
Win to Nil
25%
3.99
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.7 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.2%.
How many goals are Shandong Luneng and Dalian Zhixing expected to score?
The model projects 3.13 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 1.12 for Dalian Zhixing, a combined total of 4.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Zhixing?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 77%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shandong Luneng come into this having played 30 games, going 15W 8D 7L for 1.77 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-W.
On the other side, Dalian Zhixing sit at 1.20 PPG from 30 outings (9W 9D 12L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-L across their last five.
Shandong Luneng carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Dalian Zhixing — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Shandong Luneng's home form reads 10W 3D 2L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.77 PPG overall — Shandong Luneng are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Dalian Zhixing have taken 0.67 points per game from 15 outings (1W 7D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dalian Zhixing's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shandong Luneng are averaging 2.30 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Dalian Zhixing are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shandong Luneng have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shandong Luneng
Current Season
Dalian Zhixing
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shandong Luneng and Dalian Zhixing in coming into this match?
Shandong Luneng have gone 15W 8D 7L in their last 30 games (1.77 PPG), while Dalian Zhixing have gone 9W 9D 12L in their last 30 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shandong Luneng at home or Dalian Zhixing away?
Shandong Luneng's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shandong Luneng at home: 2.20 PPG; Dalian Zhixing away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Dalian Zhixing go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Feb 2025, when Shandong Luneng won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shandong Luneng's record when hosting Dalian Zhixing specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Shandong Luneng
0
Draws
3
Dalian Zhixing
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Dalian Zhixing?
From 4 meetings on record, Shandong Luneng have won 1, Dalian Zhixing have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shandong Luneng and Dalian Zhixing last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Dalian Zhixing 3-1 Shandong Luneng.
Who has won more matches between Shandong Luneng and Dalian Zhixing?
Dalian Zhixing have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Dalian Zhixing are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shandong Luneng 60%, Dalian Zhixing 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Shandong Luneng and 47% for Dalian Zhixing. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dalian Zhixing in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shandong Luneng home games / Dalian Zhixing away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shandong Luneng play Dalian Zhixing?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Shandong Luneng's games and 60% of Dalian Zhixing's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Zhixing usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Shandong Luneng's matches and 47% of Dalian Zhixing's.
Do Shandong Luneng and Dalian Zhixing tend to score early?
Shandong Luneng have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Dalian Zhixing in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dalian Zhixing defy the odds to beat Shandong Luneng 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dalian Zhixing beat Shandong Luneng 1-2 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 3.13 xG and Dalian Zhixing 1.12 xG, a combined 4.25. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Shandong Luneng fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Dalian Zhixing outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 1.16 / defence 0.89 against Dalian Zhixing attack 1.14 / defence 1.41, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 77% | Draw 13% | Dalian Zhixing 10%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 77%. Instead the game produced a Dalian Zhixing win, an outcome the model had rated at just 10% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 80%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 61% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 77%, Dalian Zhixing 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Dalian Zhixing's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with Dalian Zhixing winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dalian Zhixing (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.