Shandong Luneng 3-1 Chongqing Tongliang Long – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shandong Luneng at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Shandong Luneng face Chongqing Tongliang Long.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Chongqing Tongliang Long make the trip to Jinan Olympic Sports Center to face Shandong Luneng in Super League (matchday 12). The match kicks off on Saturday 16 May 2026 at 12:35 UK time.
Form
Shandong Luneng (all games): 6W 4D 0L across their last 10 — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Shandong Luneng's home record over their last 10 home games: 8W 2D 0L (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 1.51 xG and Chongqing Tongliang Long 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 1.104 / defence 0.905 | Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.846 / defence 0.802. League average goals — home 1.700 / away 1.260. Data: built from Shandong Luneng's last 41 games and Chongqing Tongliang Long's last 11.
Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 49% | Draw 27% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 24%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 2.03 | Draw 3.71 | Chongqing Tongliang Long 4.22. Shandong Luneng hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shandong Luneng at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shandong Luneng if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs Chongqing Tongliang Long | Competition: Super League, matchday 12 | Venue: Jinan Olympic Sports Center • Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026 at 12:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 49% | Draw 27% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Shandong Luneng 1.51 / Chongqing Tongliang Long 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Shandong Luneng attack 1.104 / def 0.905 | Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.846 / def 0.802 | league avg home 1.700 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Shandong Luneng xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Chongqing Tongliang Long FAQs
What time does Shandong Luneng vs Chongqing Tongliang Long kick off?
Shandong Luneng vs Chongqing Tongliang Long kicked off at 12:35 UK time on Saturday 16 May 2026 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center.
What was the final score in Shandong Luneng vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Shandong Luneng 3 - 1 Chongqing Tongliang Long.
Where is Shandong Luneng vs Chongqing Tongliang Long being played?
The match is being played at Jinan Olympic Sports Center.
What competition is Shandong Luneng vs Chongqing Tongliang Long part of?
Shandong Luneng vs Chongqing Tongliang Long is a Super League fixture (matchday 12) (China).
Who is favourite to win Shandong Luneng vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Our statistical model gives Shandong Luneng a 49% chance of winning, Chongqing Tongliang Long a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Shandong Luneng and Chongqing Tongliang Long will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Shandong Luneng vs Chongqing Tongliang Long have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Shandong Luneng's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Chongqing Tongliang Long's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. Flip it around — Chongqing Tongliang Long's attack (0.85x) against Shandong Luneng's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from Shandong Luneng's last 41 games and Chongqing Tongliang Long's last 11 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
49%
2.03
27%
3.71
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Shandong Luneng xG
Total xG
2.47
0.96
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
22%
4.51
Win to Nil
19%
5.32
5%
19.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.3 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Chongqing Tongliang Long Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shandong Luneng vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Shandong Luneng and Chongqing Tongliang Long expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 0.96 for Chongqing Tongliang Long, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Shandong Luneng vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shandong Luneng
Pre-Season
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Shandong Luneng (Home) vs Chongqing Tongliang Long (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shandong Luneng
Pre-Season
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2026 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Shandong Luneng
1
Draws
0
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Recent Meetings
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Chongqing Tongliang Long H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Shandong Luneng have won 1, Chongqing Tongliang Long have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Shandong Luneng and Chongqing Tongliang Long last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Chongqing Tongliang Long 1-1 Shandong Luneng.
Who has won more matches between Shandong Luneng and Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shandong Luneng home games / Chongqing Tongliang Long away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shandong Luneng cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Chongqing Tongliang Long.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Chongqing Tongliang Long 3-1 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 1.51 xG and Chongqing Tongliang Long 0.96 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Shandong Luneng beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 1.10 / defence 0.91 against Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.85 / defence 0.80, drawn from 41/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 49% | Draw 27% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 24%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.