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Poisson model rates Sichuan Jiuniu at 54%, yet in-form Shandong Luneng provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shandong Luneng fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Baoan Stadium plays host to Sichuan Jiuniu versus Shandong Luneng in Super League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026 at 10:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Sichuan Jiuniu have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Sichuan Jiuniu's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Baoan Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Shandong Luneng's overall Super League record this term: 6W 4D 0L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

When travelling in Super League this season, Shandong Luneng have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

On a straight form reading, Shandong Luneng are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Sichuan Jiuniu register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Shandong Luneng in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

Head-to-Head

Shandong Luneng hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 4 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.5 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2025, ended 1–3 with Shandong Luneng winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Shandong Luneng have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 4.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Statistical Overview

Sichuan Jiuniu's cumulative Super League record this campaign: 8W 3D 19L from 30 matches. They average 1.2 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 1-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 2-4 (H) / 5-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Worst losing run: 5 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 8 games this season. 5 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 2 away). Scored 2+ goals in 4 of 30 games (13%). Penalties this season: 1 scored / 0 missed from 1 awarded. Most used formation: 5-3-2. Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards per game, 0.10 reds per game.

Shandong Luneng's full-season record stands at 15W 8D 7L from 30 games. They average 2.3 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game. Biggest win: 6-0 (H) / 1-5 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-3 (H) / 6-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 4 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 4 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 5 games this season. 4 clean sheets this season (4 at home, 0 away). Scored 2+ goals in 13 of 30 games (43%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 0 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 3-4-2-1. Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards per game, 0.23 reds per game.

Shandong Luneng have been the more prolific side this season at 2.30 goals per game compared to 1.20 for the hosts. Shandong Luneng have kept their defensive record in better shape, conceding 1.50 per game versus 2.00 for the hosts. Sichuan Jiuniu lead on clean sheets this season (5 vs 4). Shandong Luneng score 2+ goals far more often (43% vs 13%) — a meaningful difference for goal-line markets. Penalty activity: Sichuan Jiuniu 1/1 vs Shandong Luneng 4/4 this season.

Trading & In-Play

Sichuan Jiuniu — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.

Shandong Luneng — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sichuan Jiuniu 57% versus Shandong Luneng 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sichuan Jiuniu 63% | Shandong Luneng 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 2.03 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.027 / defence 1.086 | Shandong Luneng attack 0.991 / defence 1.168. League average goals — home 1.691 / away 1.194. Data: 40 Sichuan Jiuniu games / 40 Shandong Luneng games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 54% | Draw 22% | Shandong Luneng 24%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 1.85 | Draw 4.55 | Shandong Luneng 4.17. Sichuan Jiuniu hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.03 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Sichuan Jiuniu at 54% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Shandong Luneng (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sichuan Jiuniu if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 3.31 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.5 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sichuan Jiuniu 80% | Shandong Luneng 80% BTTS from recent games.

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