Qingdao Jonoon 3-1 Dalian Zhixing – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Qingdao Jonoon at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Jonoon vs Dalian Zhixing fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dalian Zhixing make the trip to Qingdao Youth Football Stadium to face Qingdao Jonoon in Super League, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Qingdao Jonoon (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Qingdao Jonoon's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Dalian Zhixing have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Super League this season, Dalian Zhixing have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Qingdao Jonoon against 0.70 for Dalian Zhixing. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Qingdao Jonoon lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Aug 2025, ended 0–2 with Dalian Zhixing winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Qingdao Jonoon half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Dalian Zhixing half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 50% versus Dalian Zhixing 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Qingdao Jonoon 43% | Dalian Zhixing 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 2.19 xG and Dalian Zhixing 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.080 / defence 1.000 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.969 / defence 1.214. League average goals — home 1.674 / away 1.216. Dalian Zhixing bring a strong defensive rating of 1.214 — this is suppressing Qingdao Jonoon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Qingdao Jonoon games / 40 Dalian Zhixing games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 60% | Draw 21% | Dalian Zhixing 19%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 1.67 | Draw 4.76 | Dalian Zhixing 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Qingdao Jonoon (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.19 / 1.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Qingdao Jonoon as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.37 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Qingdao Jonoon 50% | Dalian Zhixing 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Jonoon vs Dalian Zhixing | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Qingdao Youth Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 60% | Draw 21% | Dalian Zhixing 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 62% | xG Qingdao Jonoon 2.19 / Dalian Zhixing 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.080 / def 1.000 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.969 / def 1.214 | league avg home 1.674 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Jonoon (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Dalian Zhixing xG
62%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Jonoon vs Dalian Zhixing kick off?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Dalian Zhixing kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Dalian Zhixing?
Qingdao Jonoon 3 - 1 Dalian Zhixing.
Where is Qingdao Jonoon vs Dalian Zhixing being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Jonoon vs Dalian Zhixing part of?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Dalian Zhixing is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Jonoon vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Jonoon a 60% chance of winning, Dalian Zhixing a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Jonoon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Qingdao Jonoon and Dalian Zhixing will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Jonoon vs Dalian Zhixing have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Dalian Zhixing?
Record (2 meetings): Qingdao Jonoon 0W | Draws 1 | Dalian Zhixing 1W.
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Dalian Zhixing in?
Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Dalian Zhixing (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Qingdao Jonoon's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Dalian Zhixing's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.19. Flip it around — Dalian Zhixing's attack (0.97x) against Qingdao Jonoon's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Jonoon Win
60%
1.67
21%
4.73
19%
5.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Total xG
3.37
1.18
Dalian Zhixing xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.73
21%
Draw
5.25
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
11%
8.97
Win to Nil
18%
5.43
2%
47.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Jonoon vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Qingdao Jonoon and Dalian Zhixing expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 1.18 for Dalian Zhixing, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Jonoon vs Dalian Zhixing?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Qingdao Jonoon come into this having played 30 games, going 5W 10D 15L for 0.83 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-D.
On the other side, Dalian Zhixing sit at 1.20 PPG from 30 outings (9W 9D 12L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.83 PPG for Qingdao Jonoon against 1.20 for Dalian Zhixing. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Qingdao Jonoon's home form reads 4W 6D 5L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Dalian Zhixing have taken 0.67 points per game from 15 outings (1W 7D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dalian Zhixing's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Qingdao Jonoon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Qingdao Jonoon are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Dalian Zhixing are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Jonoon
Current Season
Dalian Zhixing
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Dalian Zhixing in coming into this match?
Qingdao Jonoon have gone 5W 10D 15L in their last 30 games (0.83 PPG), while Dalian Zhixing have gone 9W 9D 12L in their last 30 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Jonoon at home or Dalian Zhixing away?
Qingdao Jonoon's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Jonoon at home: 1.20 PPG; Dalian Zhixing away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since April 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dalian Zhixing — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Qingdao Jonoon
1
Draws
1
Dalian Zhixing
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Dalian Zhixing?
From 3 meetings on record, Qingdao Jonoon have won 1, Dalian Zhixing have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Jonoon and Dalian Zhixing last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Qingdao Jonoon 3-1 Dalian Zhixing.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Dalian Zhixing are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Jonoon 53%, Dalian Zhixing 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Qingdao Jonoon) and 47% (Dalian Zhixing).
On the defensive side: Qingdao Jonoon have failed to score in 27% of games; Dalian Zhixing in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Jonoon home games / Dalian Zhixing away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Jonoon play Dalian Zhixing?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Qingdao Jonoon's games and 60% of Dalian Zhixing's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Qingdao Jonoon vs Dalian Zhixing usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent games and 47% of Dalian Zhixing's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Qingdao Jonoon and Dalian Zhixing tend to score early?
Qingdao Jonoon have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Dalian Zhixing in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Qingdao Jonoon cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Dalian Zhixing.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Qingdao Jonoon beat Dalian Zhixing 3-1 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 2.19 xG and Dalian Zhixing 1.18 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Qingdao Jonoon beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.08 / defence 1.00 against Dalian Zhixing attack 0.97 / defence 1.21, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 60% | Draw 21% | Dalian Zhixing 19%, with Qingdao Jonoon to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Jonoon 43%, Dalian Zhixing 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Dalian Zhixing's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Qingdao Jonoon 0.83 PPG, Dalian Zhixing 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Qingdao Jonoon win broke the near-deadlock. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm. Dalian Zhixing (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.